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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 939 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Rest of today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 5 ft. A slight chance of snow showers.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ100 939 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure continues to build in from the west as low pressure lingers across northeastern canada through tomorrow. The high moves offshore south of the waters by Thursday with a freshening southwesterly flow. A weak area of low pressure along a cold front crosses the waters Friday night, with high pressure then building in from the north this weekend.

FXUS61 KGYX 281448 AAA AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 948 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Snow showers and a few squalls will be possible today, mostly in the mountains, along with cooler temperatures through midweek. High pressure prevails later in the work week, with a weak system then possible late Friday into early Saturday. High pressure moves through Saturday night and Sunday, with another system possible early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
940 AM Update: Going forecast is in good shape with minor changes to allow for a bit more clearing downwind of the mountains through late morning and to match temperature/dewpoint trends. Snow shower activity continues with 12Z GYX RAOB showing a surface based mixed layer extending all the way above H7 which will allow convective snow shower activity to cross the mountains and reach all areas this afternoon/eve in line with current forecast expectations.

638 AM Update...A few minor adjustments to the forecast, but nothing significant as it remains on track. Variable amounts of clouds continue to flow overhead with scattered snow showers.
This will continue to be the theme of the day with the approach of a short wave trough with some Great Lakes moisture entrained.
A few heavier snow squalls will be possible later on as the snow squall parameter increases.

Previously...

Colder day today with an approaching short wave trough that will keep variable clouds and snow showers in the forecast. Low level moisture, forcing for ascent, and weak instability will be sufficient for numerous snow showers and potentially some heavy squalls in the the mountains today. A few inches of snow across central and northern NH mountains are likely, likely extending into portions of the western ME mountains.

The flow today is forecast to be supercritical and unblocked (high Froude Numbers) so that some of the snow shower activity will make it over the mountains. Have expanded chance PoPs to almost all of the forecast area for today with some minor accums possible in spots. Otherwise, some sun from time to time downwind of the mountains is expected along with colder temperatures than yesterday along with breezy westerly winds.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
The short wave trough will cross the forecast area this evening which will allow the snow shower activity to diminish, although they may linger in the mountains. Another weak short wave trough will approach on Wednesday with an increase in clouds bur dry weather. Temperatures remain cold.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Overview...

High pressure slides offshore through midweek, bringing a moderating trend through the end of the work week. A weak low pressure system passes to the south Friday night, and then high pressure builds in for the weekend from the north. Another storm system is then possible early next week.

Details...

As the high slides offshore to our south, temperatures start to rebound on Thursday in a southwesterly flow, and then warm further with highs near 50 by Friday. This sets a fairly warm airmass in place for the next system arriving late Friday and Friday night. A weak area of low pressure is expected to slide to the south of the area and bring a chance for rain and snow to the area. The best chance to see the precip will be along the coast, and mostly light rain. There's a better chance for snow farther inland, but lower POPs overall as most of the moisture looks poised to pass the south of the forecast area. Regardless, it doesn't look to be a very impactful system, and should be off to our east by daybreak Saturday.

High pressure builds in from the north on Saturday, bringing a cooling trend through the end of the weekend. Highs look to mainly be held to the 30s on Sunday with mainly sunny skies. The high then slips off into the Canadian Maritimes by early next week as the next storm system approaches.

The next potential system would likely arrive in the Monday to Tuesday time frame. While it's still nearly a week away, it's worth noting that all the of the major global models have a system nearby around this time. Their respective ensemble suites also show many members with a storm in this timeframe, and ensemble mean QPF values of around an inch. It's still very early, but the current consensus amongst the models is notable.
What also makes this worth watching is with the high remaining to the north, cold air will be available for a more widespread snow on the north side of the low track. We'll continue to monitor this system over the coming days.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected today through Wednesday downwind of the mountains with westerly wind gusts between 20 to 25 kt at times. However, a few snow showers downwind of the mountains may allow for very brief instances of IFR in SHSN. In the mountains, snow showers will be common today with frequently lower conditions.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Wednesday night through early Friday. Light rain and some lowering ceilings are then possible late Friday and Friday night, mainly across southern and coastal terminals. VFR conditions return for the weekend, except at HIE where MVFR ceilings are possible Saturday. A large storm system is then possible early next week, and has the potential to bring restrictions with rain and snow.

MARINE
1045 AM Update: Extended SCAs into the bays attm based on mid morning observations. Continues will continue through Wednesday morning.

Previous discussion below...

Short Term...SCA in effect for all the waters. For the outer waters, the SCA goes into Wednesday morning while the bays see the SCA conditions diminish earlier.

Long Term...High pressure moves offshore south of the waters by Thursday. A cold front approaches the waters Friday, with freshening southwesterly flow and possible SCA to low end gale conditions by Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in during the weekend, with SCA conditions possible again in northwesterly flow.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150>154.

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Rockland
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Tue -- 04:57 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:13 AM EST     11.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:38 PM EST     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:56 PM EST     9.99 feet High Tide
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Rockland, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

Camden
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Tue -- 04:55 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:05 AM EST     11.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     -0.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:47 PM EST     9.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Camden, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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