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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 406 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.storm warning in effect through this evening...
Today..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt early this afternoon, then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A slight chance of tstms early this morning. Rain until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..W winds around 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ100 406 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a significant storm brings gusty winds through today with storm force winds expected across the outer waters and penobscot bay with gales in casco bay. During the day today winds shift to westerly and will remain quite gusty. Fair conditions towards the latter half of the week will allow winds and seas to gradually diminish.

FXUS61 KGYX 110934 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 434 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
A significant storm continues today bringing flooding rainfall, damaging winds, and also periods of heavy snow across the north. Widespread 1-3 inches of rain is expected with strong southerly winds toward the Midcoast. Upslope snow showers linger into midweek as a weak cold front crosses the area before high pressure brings quieter conditions for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Although the front and the waves of lows that are riding NNE along the front continue into this morning, in typical zipper low fashion, the whole system continues to trend a little further E than the models indicated 24-48 hours ago. This trend was noted over the last day or so, but currently, the sfc front is has pushed mostly offshore as the ageostrophic flow form the N picks up as jet dynamics strengthen. This has shifted the low level further S and E and has diminished the wind threat. Still will keep the wind products up along the mid coast as the jet will pass closest to this area closer to 12Z. Further west, the ends shift to NW behind the front and increase around midday with gusts to around 35 mph possible at times behind this system this afternoon.

As for the rain and flooding threat. The greatest threat for flooding has likely pushed east as well, more toward the mid coast and the Kennebec valley Although there still are some areas in southern New England and down toward the mid-Atlantic region that need to move through. Urban and low lying flooding, as well as some minor river flooding is expected.

Also in the mix, is the winter weather, especially in the far N, including the Pittsburgh area in far N NH, and right along the Canadian border in wrn ME, where significant snowfall is expected. Several hours of 1-2” hour rate will be possible her through about mid morning before precip starts to taper off.
Also, the snow will be wet, with ratios closer to 5-1 than 10-1.

Also, given that the front is through most of the CWA, temps will likely fall or remain steady through peak heating. And the the normal fall toward sunset. Finally outside the mtns, rain should end around midday with some fairly quick clearing in the NW downslope areas, and perhaps mostly clear skies before sunset.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
Upslope SHSN should be in full force for several hours this evening before the flow drops off and shifts more SW late tonight tonight, while S and E of the mtns it will be mainly clear overnight with lows dropping into the upper teens to the mid to upper 20s in the S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Shortwave ridging builds in for Tuesday providing a pleasant day with mostly sunny conditions and highs ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Another weak frontal boundary crosses Tuesday night, renewing chances for snow showers in the mountains while not doing much of anything else for the rest of the area.

Behind the front, upslope flow will take over into Wednesday, which will keep scattered snow showers in the mountains. Froude numbers suggest flow will become unblocked by the afternoon, so we could see a few of these in areas south and east of the mountains. Highs will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Cooler temperatures follow for Thursday with a deep layer northwest flow aloft, but a warming trend looks possible from Friday and into the upcoming weekend. It also looks mostly dry, although there may be a couple of opportunities for precip, the first of which may be Thursday night across northern areas. The second could be over the weekend with operational GFS suggesting a shortwave crossing through around Saturday while the ECMWF is favoring closer to Sunday.
However, the majority of the ensemble members within both the ECMWF and GFS camps show no QPF, so will keep the forecast dry from Thursday onward.



AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...Improvement to VFR expected from SW-NE late this morning through mid afternoon, but wind shift to WNW and will see some gusts to around 30 kt at times from midday through sunset. KLEB will likely linger at MVFR through much of the afternoon, and KHIE will be stuck in IFR to MVFR in upslope SHSN and low cigs.

Long Term...Mostly VFR from Tuesday through Friday. A weak frontal boundary may bring a few snow showers to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, but this looks mainly in the vicinity of HIE although a few may reach downwind of the mountains toward AUG. Occasional MVFR ceilings and vsby reductions are possible at HIE during this same time frame.

MARINE
Short Term...May not see storm force winds, as low level shifting a little further S and E than expected, but core of low level jet will not pass through until around 12Z, so will hold warnings until that time. Then will see gales through today, which eventually drop off to SCA winds tonight.

Long Term...Winds ease briefly early on Tuesday, but seas will remain well above SCA levels. Winds then pick back up later in the day out of the southwest as a weak frontal boundary crosses the waters Tuesday night, prolonging the SCA conditions through midweek.
Some improvement is possible toward late week and the weekend, although there could still be periods of wind gusts 20 to 25 kt.

HYDROLOGY
Rain will continues across the region with increasing rates through this morning. The initial rain and snowmelt will serve to prime the system, then the additional rounds of heavy rainfall today will trigger flash flooding and widespread small stream and river flooding. The cold and dry snowpack in the White Mountains and Mountain Region of Maine will serve to limit any rainfall runoff, however with the expectation of 1-3 inches, we can't rule out small stream responses in these areas.
The snowpack from the foothills southward will melt out with this event, contributing around a half inch or more in runoff.
The heaviest rainfall will occur in the overrunning zone in the S facing slopes and extend down to the coast. Latest storm track bring a swath of 3 to 5 inches from the Presumpscot to the Penobscot River valleys. Particular concern for flash flooding in these areas. The river response will be muted in main stem rivers with only minor flooding expected, with the exception of the Kennebec where moderate flooding is expected. Significant disruptions to travel is expected today from all the road flooding likely to occur. Once the rain transitions to snow the runoff will slow down, with the focus on the main stem rivers by tonight. Flood warnings could continue tonight into Tuesday if flood waters are slow to recede.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Flood Watch through this evening for MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028-033.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ007>009.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ022-026.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ027-028.
NH...Flood Watch through this evening for NHZ004>015.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NHZ002- 003.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NHZ001.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150>152-154.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ153.

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Rockland
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Mon -- 02:57 AM EST     1.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:09 AM EST     10.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:38 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:37 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:57 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:49 PM EST     9.31 feet High Tide
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Rockland, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

Camden
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Mon -- 02:54 AM EST     1.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:05 AM EST     10.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:37 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:34 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:57 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM EST     9.04 feet High Tide
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Camden, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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