Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 3:19 PM   Moonset 4:18 AM

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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 310 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely late.Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wed - S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Wed night - S winds around 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ100 310 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure gradually drifts east of the waters through tomorrow a weak cold front then crosses late tonight and tomorrow as low pressure tracks north of the gulf of maine. High pressure gradually builds through early next week, with a weak front crossing the waters on Sunday. An area of low pressure likely approaches the waters by midweek next week.

FXUS61 KGYX 191938 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 338 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal system crosses through the region tonight and tomorrow, bringing rain especially late tonight and Saturday morning. After steady rain exits, scattered showers and blustery winds are expected as drier and cooler air filters into New England. Quiet, mild, and dry weather returns through early next week... becoming quite dry and gusty on Monday. Low pressure approaches the region toward mid-week, likely bringing the next chance for widespread rain.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
Tonight will be fairly mild and humid as southerly flow continues ahead of a frontal system tracking into New England, with lows in the 40s. Light rain will come in rounds, first with a warm front later this evening... and again with an initial, weak cold front after midnight. Although initial showers this evening into the overnight will be fairly light and widely scattered, more widespread stratiform rains are expected to develop in the early morning hours closer to the coast. This occurs as the front reaches the coast and amplifies into a baroclinic leaf... and has trended a bit more bullish with rainfall amounts, with a stripe of around 0.25-0.4" extending from southern New Hampshire to the Midcoast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Saturday starts rainy along the coast, although stronger mixing will be well underway further north and west as cooler and drier air filters in behind the initial cold front. Thus we can expect clearing, or at least lifting ceilings, from west to east through the morning hours... with conditions along the Midcoast likely to remain a bit raw into the afternoon.

Lapse rates will steepen significantly through the day Saturday, leading to gusty west winds across the area.
Statistical guidance favors wind gusts mainly in the 20-25 kt range, however a look at BUFKIT profiles suggest that with adequate momentum transfer stronger gusts in excess of 30 kts (35 mph) will be possible. There will be plenty of mid-level moisture available combined with cyclonic flow aloft, a secondary cold front, and those steep lapse rates to produce scattered showers especially in the afternoon which will be the best bet for mixing those stronger gusts to the surface. With freezing levels falling to below 4 kft, would expect some graupel in the stronger cells that form as well. Otherwise, the strong mixing and clearing will allow temperatures to rebound well into the 50s or low-60s in spite of the cooler airmass advecting in from the northwest.

Precipitation chances are expected to diminish fairly quickly Saturday evening and overnight as flow aloft turns more zonal and surface heating is lost. Winds will likely remain a touch breezy, not strong enough for any sort of impact but likely strong enough to keep temperatures from cooling past the 30s overnight under clearing skies.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Overview...

A broad trough extending into the Northeast brings seasonably cool and dry conditions into midweek on northwesterly flow.
Conditions likely become unsettled again by Wednesday into Thursday as a slow moving front progresses through New England.

Details...

A weak area of low pressure passes to the north late Sunday and Monday, bringing the chance for some showers to northern areas and the higher terrain Sunday night and Monday. South of the mountains, conditions look to remain dry. A weak and dry front passes through the area Sunday night, bringing dry conditions and breezy northwesterly winds, along with cool temperatures.
South of the mountains, fire weather is likely to be a concern, while temps in the 30s and 40s through the mountains and foothills lessens these concerns.

Temperatures and humidity begin to rebound by Tuesday as southerly flow returns ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure will crest the region early in the day Tuesday and strengthen as it moves out south of the Canadian Maritimes.

A slow moving front pushes into New England on Wednesday and into Wednesday night, with an area of low pressure likely to develop. How organized and significant this system becomes remains the subject of some uncertainty, but regardless showers at least look likely across the forecast area. With high pressure centered to the north across Quebec, some precip is likely to switch to snow by Wednesday night, particularly across northwestern locations and the higher terrain.

The Thursday-Friday time remains uncertain at this point as the low pressure system will be slow to depart to the east, but strong high pressure will push in from the west. There is likely to be a sharp gradient from clear skies and warmer temps to the west, with cool and damp conditions to the east. Whether this occurs at night or during the daytime on Thursday remains uncertain, but will result in two very different outcomes depending on the placement of these features. We'll have to wait at least a few more days before the details become more clear on this.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...Predominantly VFR today with S/SE flow generally AOB 20 kts. MVFR CIGs become more likely by around midnight in the west and expand in coverage overnight with a period of IFR likely south of the mountains and especially toward the coast.
Flight conditions trend to VFR from west to east after daybreak, with CIGs along the Midcoast potentially hanging on to IFR/MVFR restrictions until the afternoon. Winds turn SW/W and become gusty as CIGs lift, with gusts generally up to 20-25 kts. Higher gusts and brief restrictions are possible in -SHRA. Gusts diminish with prevailing VFR, except perhaps MVFR at KHIE, Sat evening.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most terminals from Sunday through Tuesday, except at HIE where a period of MVFR ceilings is likely late Sunday and Sunday night.
Restrictions are likely on Wednesday as showers and lower ceilings return, with MVFR to IFR conditions likely. Improvement is likely on Thursday, but a return to VFR may take until Thursday night.

MARINE
Short Term...SE flow today builds out of the S tonight, remaining AOB 20 kts with seas around 2-4 ft. Winds turn more SW Sat, then W Sat night with a cold front crossing. Predominant winds will stay below SCA thresholds, however a few gusts 25-30 kts will be possible.

Long Term...A weak front crosses the waters Sunday night, with high pressure building in behind the front for Monday and Tuesday. SCA conditions are possible in northwesterly flow on Monday. The high moves east of the waters by Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west, with SCA conditions possible in southwesterly flow Tuesday and Wednesday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Nehumkeag Island
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Fri -- 12:13 AM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:28 PM EDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:08 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nehumkeag Island, Kennebec River, Maine, Tide feet

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Fri -- 01:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:59 AM EDT     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:05 AM EDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:21 PM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:32 PM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current, knots

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