Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Reedsville, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:36PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 11:52 AM CST (17:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:28PMMoonset 6:23AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Expires:202102242315;;051515 Fzus53 Kgrb 241557 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 957 Am Cst Wed Feb 24 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-242315- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 957 Am Cst Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm cst this evening...
Rest of today..N wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of drizzle and light snow becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.
Tonight..NW wind 10 to 15 kts backing W at 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly clear.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of flurries in the morning.
Thursday night..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly clear.
LMZ543


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reedsville, WI
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location: 44.18, -88     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 241737 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1137 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

UPDATE. Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

There's just a little too much snow still left to come through to allow the advisory for N-C WI expire at 12Z. Will extend it a couple hours. That will also get through the morning commute. Will leave the 15Z expiration time in the far eastern part of the area unchanged.

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 409 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

Wintry precipitation ending this morning, but another round is likely Friday night into early Saturday. Temperatures remaining above seasonal normals through the weekend.

The upper pattern across North America will maintain low to moderate amplitude throughout the period. It is also likely to trend back toward at least a somewhat split nature. That's the pattern that dominated this winter up until the recent cold snap.

The lower amplitude/splitting flow will result in the forecast area primarily being affected by Pacific air masses that have downsloped the Rockies. That will keep temperatures AOA normal at least through the weekend. After that, there is considerable disagreement among the models on whether or not a quick-hitting but more significant shot of cold air will reach the area early next week. The pattern will be fairly energetic but moisture will be limited. So precipitation during the 7-day period will probably end up a little below normal.

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Thursday Issued at 409 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

The bulk of the effort spent on the short-term period this morning was in re-aligning the forecast details with the ongoing system. There is currently a bit of a lull in the precipitation across north-central Wisconsin as the primary area of isentropic lift was now off to the east. That was resulting in lighter snows along with FZDZ, as UP was noted on several obs in the past couple hours. FGen forcing along with QC forcing with the main mid-level shortwave were approaching from the west. The second area of forcing was accompanied by colder cloud tops and some higher returns spreading ESE on the KDLH radar. So a transition back to mainly snow is anticipated, with a couple hours of steadier snows before things begin to wind down for good. The advisory expires at 12Z across N-C WI. Will continue to monitor the situation, and may need to extend the advisory for a couple hours if it looks like snow will keep accumulating past 12Z. The 15Z expiration time in the east is probably okay.

Otherwise, temperatures tonight are a concern. Skycon guidance products are pretty aggressive in clearing things out late today. If that happens, there could be a period of clear skies and light winds right after sunset. Given the fresh snowcover, it's easy to see how temps across the north could crash to below zero. On the other hand, there is quite a bit of middle and high clouds out to the west on early morning satellite imagery. And those clouds will overspread the area at some point. So timing will be critical to the temperature forecast. Opted to trim mins 3-5 degrees across the north. Further reduction will probably be necessary if it becomes apparent the clouds won't arrive quickly enough.

The weak shortwave that was forecast to cross the area late tonight/early Thursday looks weaker than it did yesterday. Pulled back a little on PoPs, and now have just a trace event (flurries) for most areas.

LONG TERM. Thursday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

The arctic air will remain up in Canada through the weekend. Significant differences between the GFS (much colder) and the ECMWF for the brief arctic intrusion early next week.

For Thursday night and Friday, tranquil conditions are expected. Clear to partly cloudy skies should allow low temperatures to fall into the 10 to 20 degree range Thursday night. A few of the typical cold spots could drop into the single digits above zero. On Friday, high temperatures will rebound into the 30s thanks to the late February sunshine. Light snow is still looking pretty good Friday night. Some difference in the timing of the arrival of the snow. Most locations should see an inch or two. If the slower timing does come true, later shifts may need to add a chance of light snow for a few hours on Saturday morning.

The Saturday night and Sunday periods are more perplexing tonight. Based on the qpf output of the GFS and Canadian models, it appears an fgen band develops across the forecast. The GFS model has this feature developing late Saturday night into Sunday morning across central/north-central into northeast Wisconsin. The Canadian model has this feature across central into east- central Wisconsin during the day Sunday. The ECMWF has does not have this feature, thus extremely low confidence in adding a chance of precipitation for the Saturday night and Sunday period. Will see if this feature shows up over the next few days. Otherwise, the main story for early next week will be how cold it gets on Monday. At Green Bay, the GFS guidance has a high of 17F while the ECMWF guidance suggested 37F. Will let these differences work themselves out over the next several days. If the GFS is correct, the arctic blast will be nothing like the last one as 850mb temperatures rebound considerably by Tuesday.

AVIATION. for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

Cloud cover was extensive for the beginning of the TAF period; however, clouds were beginning to mix out and becoming broken. This trend will continue over the next hour or two with most sites scattering out for the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, improving conditions will continue with high to mid clouds filtering back in overnight into Thursday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

UPDATE . Skowronski SYNOPSIS . Skowronski SHORT TERM . Skowronski LONG TERM . Eckberg AVIATION . Cooley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GBWW3 25 mi53 min N 12 G 15 34°F 1009 hPa (+4.9)
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 33 mi53 min N 12 G 18 34°F 1008.2 hPa (+4.9)
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 34 mi53 min NW 13 G 15 36°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI18 mi57 minNNW 15 G 2110.00 miLight Rain34°F31°F89%1009.4 hPa
Green Bay, Austin Straubel International Airport, WI22 mi60 minN 1310.00 miOvercast36°F29°F76%1010.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTW

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW12SW17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.