Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reedsville, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Near term through Tonight...Moist southerly return flow ahead of frontal boundaries over the northern Plains is spurring on scattered showers iwth locally heavy rain early this morning.
Shortwave lifting over southern WI is enhancing the activity.
Expect the showers to diminish mid to late morning, not before producing isolated rainfall over 0.50 inch in north-central to far northeast WI. Sfc wave of low pressure tied to the shortwave will cross southern Lake Michigan this morning. Main impact will be to switch winds from E-SE to E-NE this afternoon. Some fog is on the lake already and as the winds shift, may see fog impact shoreline of Lake Michigan. If that occurs, temps could trend cooler in the afternoon compared to the forecast. Otherwise, highs will reach the lower to middle 80s, warmest over central/north-central WI.

Late this evening and overnight, attention will be on advancing warm front into western/southwest WI. Effective MUCAPE is healthy at 1000-2000J/kg with sufficient shear at 20-30 kts. Isolated strong to severe storms are on the table late tonight into Wednesday morning as warm front lifts in. CAMS indicate it is possible that a more organized complex of storms may be over our area late, instead of isolated storms. Given position of low-level jet shifting into WI and extent of instability, that certainly is a potential. Will be a warm, muggy night with areas of fog.

Severe storms and Heavy Rain Potential Wednesday and Wednesday evening...Though morning convection trends will have some bearing on how convective pattern evolves later Wednesday into Wednesday evening, sharp trough, jet energy, and cold front approaching from the northern Plains interacting with higher-end instability with CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg with effective shear of 40+ kts points to higher ceiling with severe potential on Wednesday. Details not clear yet, but general idea is still on track with scattered severe storms developing late afternoon over central MN into western WI closer to mid-level trough and stronger shortwave embedded within the flow, with storms then expanding into central WI early evening, quickly spreading to eastern WI, lakeshore mid to late evening. Soundings, hodographs point to damaging winds, large hail initially given elongated hodographs and unidirectional flow. Once storms grow upscale into a line while sweeping east on Wednesday evening, QLCS tornado potential is present with expected 0-3km shear vector strong and perpendicular to orientation of the line. Once the storms get going, models agree to get storm threat through entire area quickly, with some favoring ending time as early as 9-10p, and certainly by midnight. Majority of area is now in Enhanced severe weather risk with higher end severe likely including wind speeds over 70 mph, hail over 2 inch in diameter and the potential for an EF2 tornado. Those with outdoor plans on Wednesday evening, need to start planning for severe weather now.

Despite warm cloud depths to 12kft and PWATs well above the 90th percentile, and nearing the max for the day, heavy rain potential on Wednesday evening will be lowered so long as storm motion is swift. However, mbE vectors less than 5kt point to slow moving storms/training *if* storms try to backbuild. Max percentiles (95th percentile to max) from LREF/NBM point to localized high end rain amounts 2 to 3 inches on Wednesday evening. Will be a near term nowcast item to monitor on radar.

Another round of storms on Thursday...Even with the storms on Wednesday evening to the east of the area, we will not be out of the woods yet in terms of severe/heavy rain potential as primary trough will still be upstream on Thursday. Decent signal a stronger wave in the right entrance region of upper jet will result in more showers and storms crossing the area. Main question is will severe be main issue (model differences in extent of instability remaining over the area), or just heavy rain as PWATs will still be very high. Max percentiles (95th percentile to max)
from LREF/NBM for 24 hr precip ending 12z Friday point to more widespread high-end rain amounts over 2 inches Thursday into Thursday evening.

Temperatures...Overall, the theme of models backing off of the extreme heat that was shown a few days ago continues. Even so, very warm and humid conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Based on 850mb temps near 20c if morning storms are not too disruptive and storms developing in the afternoon occur later versus earlier, portions of the Fox Valley to far northeast WI could see high temps into the lower 90s with heat index values nearing 100. Heatrisk for the day is solidly into the moderate range. Cannot rule out the need for near term Heat Advisory headline, but would not say it is likely. On Thursday, highs reaching the mid 80s with lingering higher dewpoints over eastern WI will lead to another round of moderate heat related impacts before showers and storms move in through the afternoon. Heat backs off by Friday.

Extended...Broad trough remains anchored over upper Great Lakes through the weekend. Enough lingering moisture and instability to generate at least small potential for pop-up isolated showers and storms Friday through the weekend. Even building in higher-end CAPEs, severe weather looks unlikely. Despite the rain, there will be plenty of dry time. Temperatures will be closer to normal, with highs in the 70s. Troughing expands into more of the region late weekend into early next week, leading to temperatures trending below normal.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Scattered showers will continue overnight into early Tuesday morning. Could not rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but coverage and probabilities to low to include in the 06z TAFS. CIGS also slower drop into the MVFR/IFR category during the evening, but should drop into these two categories overnight. Patchy fog may restrict visibilities at times between 06z-13z. Otherwise, sped up the improving CIGS on Tuesday, reaching the VFR category Tuesday afternoon. The latest guidance is suggesting fog is likely Tuesday night and may be dense at times. On Wednesday, strong or severe storms are possible, especially during the afternoon.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.