Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 3:37 AM   Moonset 2:39 PM

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LMZ543 Expires:202405040100;;567402 Fzus53 Kgrb 032057 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 357 pm cdt Fri may 3 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz542-543-040100- sturgeon bay to two rivers wi-two rivers to sheboygan wi- 357 pm cdt Fri may 3 2024
Rest of this afternoon - S wind 5 to 10 kts. Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less. Tonight - S wind 5 to 10 kts backing se after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 ft or less. Saturday - S wind 5 to 10 kts. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Saturday night - W wind 5 to 10 kts veering nw 10 to 20 kts after midnight. A chance of light showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday - N wind 5 to 10 kts veering E in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
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FXUS63 KGRB 032041 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 341 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday evening, with additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.

- A few rivers will remain at or reach bankfull stage into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Saturday

Deep mixing allowed temperatures to soar into the middle 60s to lower 70s, caused winds to gust to 25 to 35 mph over far N WI, and resulted in pockets of low relative humidity in the sandy soil regions of northern and central WI this afternoon.

Mostly clear skies will give way to a gradual increase in mid and high level clouds overnight, but dry conditions will prevail.
Considered the possibility of patchy fog overnight, but a well- mixed air mass, increasing boundary layer winds overnight and shorter spring night argued against any mention at this time. Look for low temperatures to drop into the 40s.

On Saturday, a dry start to the day will give way to a band of light to moderate showers along and ahead of a cold frontal passage. The showers will be aided by a weak surface wave lifting northeast along the front, plus upper divergence in the RRQ of a 110 kt jet streak and weak short-wave energy. There is a general consensus for a narrow ribbon of weak instability (SBCAPE 200-400 j/kg) developing over the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas in the afternoon, so have kept a mention of a few thunderstorms there.
Showers should arrive in NC/C WI mid to late morning, and Fox Valley/lakeshore early to mid afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s and lower 60s west and near Lake Michigan, to 65 to 70 across inland areas of NE/EC WI.

Long Term...Saturday Night Through Friday

Saturday evening/night...Rain and a few thunderstorms will be ongoing across far eastern WI into Saturday evening as a cold front and mid-level shortwave tracks over the area. Not anticipating for these storms to be strong or severe as the couple hundred J/kg of instability over the area during the afternoon will rapidly decrease into the evening. The showers and storms will exit the state by 06z Sunday.

Sunday through Monday...High pressure and upper-level ridging moves over the area during this time period, leaving dry weather and mostly sunny skies across the forecast area. Temperatures will rise above normal for both days with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s inland, and upper 50s to low 60s along the lakeshore.
Slightly elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday as afternoon RH values will be in the 30s and southeast winds may gust to 20 to 25 mph. Locations across the north would be of greatest concern where green up has not fully occurred.

Rest of the extended...Models are still in agreement with an upper- level trough developing over the Northern Plains Monday into Tuesday. This will leave the forecast area in the southerly flow ahead of the trough, allowing southern stream energy and moisture to increase and lift into the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valleys.
Although there are still some timing and placement differences, especially when the precip will end, Tuesday into Tuesday evening appears to be the best timing for widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms. Despite being in the warm sector, the timing of the precip may hinder severe potential across the forecast area and keep it confined south of the area. Will continue to monitor as there is still plenty of time for the details to be ironed out over the coming days. Details for the remainder of the extended become very messy, but models agree with additional chances for precip at times through the rest of next work week.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period, with patchy mid/high clouds expected into early Saturday, then thickening and lowering clouds in NC/C WI as showers arrive toward midday. Considered the possibility of patchy fog tonight, but the air mass has become well mixed this afternoon (warm temps and low dew points leading to large dew point depressions) and boundary layer winds will be increasing to 20 to 25 kts late tonight.
Models are hinting at some low clouds coming off Lake Michigan (near MTW) Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to mention a ceiling at this time.

Gusty west winds will drop off quickly late in the day, become light SE overnight, then moderate SE-S later Saturday morning.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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