Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neenah, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 206 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Today's Snow Chances & Narrow Band of Heavier Snow: The combination of increasing isentropic ascent, a coupled upper jet, and 850-600mb FGEN will allow for a long, narrow band of snow to continue to expand across the northern Plains and Great Lakes today. All eyes will be on exactly where the 2-3 county wide band will ultimately set up, as these bands are notorious at making small, but impactful shifts. High-res models have a decent handle on the band which is currently across MT/SD/ND/MN, but small differences remain as it shifts eastward. High-res model consensus has improved over the last few runs, with the previous outlying HRRR shifting south/west. This makes sense with the dry air advecting into the region from the north. So confidence has increased that the heaviest area of snow will stay just to our south. But any minor shift to the north will bring the northern edge toward the Hwy 10 corridor. On the flip side, any southward shift, with the dry air winning, would keep totals under an inch with many spots not seeing any snow.

Have continued to use a model blend, with 1.0-2.5" of snow south of Hwy 10 (current probabilities for 2"+ are 20-40% from Wisconsin Rapids to Oshkosh) and under an inch elsewhere. Any 3"+ totals would be confined to the stronger FGEN band, along with snow rates around 1-1.5"/hr. Have delayed the onset of the snow a little, as the drier air at the surface will take some time to overcome, with most of the snow holding off until after noon. Still expect a pretty sharp cut-off on the northern edge, with some weak forcing north of the main FGEN band which could produce some very light snow/flurries. Within the heavier band, the stronger lift within the DGZ will produce snow ratios of around 20-25:1, leading to the higher localized totals. Outside the heavier band, the snow will still be on the fluffy side, but closer to 15:1. The blowing/drifting snow potential looks very low as winds will remain under 15 mph most of today and tonight. Will continue to monitor upstream ob trends and the latest guidance on where the band will track. As the FGEN and broad lift weakens/exits this evening, snow chances will end.

One other small wrinkle in the forecast could be a lake effect snow band over far eastern WI this evening into tonight. While surface winds could shift more to the NNE, 850mb winds look stay NW or N, which should keep any snow band just offshore.

Off & On Rain/Snow Chances Next Week: As the flow turns zonal, there will be periodic chances for precip through the week. First system arrives Monday night into Tuesday, with 40-60% chances for mixed precip. Current temp profiles favor mainly wet snow, with some impactful snow possible, but the degree of phases is in question and will determine just how strong this system will be.
Another system is forecast to arrive later in the week. With temps moderating, mainly rain is expected, but a little snow may mix in over the north at times, especially at night.

Temps Warming Into Next Week: Below normal temps are expected this weekend, with highs in the teens and 20s, as northwest flow ushers in a batch of arctic air. Some below zero winds chills are expected at night. Temps then will be on a slow but steady rise next week as a pattern change occurs over much of the CONUS. The more zonal flow will allow for Pacific modified air to spread into the Great Lakes for most of the week. Highs look to be in the 40s and 50s, with some 60s not too far to the south by the end of the week. The warmer temps, along with the rain, will lead to a shrinking snowpack, with most/all of the snow likely melting across central and eastern WI. North-central WI has a foot or two of snow on the ground, so that will be slower to melt. Some minor hydro issues could arise if/where the largest snowpack exists, but hopefully this pattern will allow for a gradual melt. The ice jam threat will also increase for those rivers that are still frozen.

AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Other than a few MVFR ceilings/vsbys and a few flurries at RHI and across north-central WI, VFR conditions are expected this morning with mid-clouds increasing across the region. Clouds will lower later this morning and afternoon, with a band of snow moving across the southern half of the state later this morning into early this evening. Models not in good agreement on how low clouds will get, ranging from VFR to IFR. Trends continue to point at the heaviest snow staying to the south as dry air at the surface will be tough to overcome the further north you go; however, still some disagreement on if another area of mainly light snow will develop further north. Have leaned towards higher ceilings/vsbys, but upstream trends will need to be monitored for lower conditions, especially at ATW/MTW. In addition, if the heavier snowband shifts a little north late this afternoon, ATW/MTW would see a period of IFR or possibly brief LIFR conditions. Chances of this occurring are under 20% so will not include. Conditions look to become VFR overnight into Sunday morning.

Gusts to around 15 kts will remain possible through ~14z, then winds will generally remain under 10 kts through the TAF period, shifting from the N this morning to the N/NNE this afternoon into tonight.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.