Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Randolph, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:43PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 11:27 PM EST (04:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 9:30PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 700 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Rest of tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow and rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 700 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure to the northeast of the waters will continue to provide brisk northwest flow across the waters tonight. Thereafter, high pressure builds in Thursday and Friday. Low pressure will likely pass to the east of the waters late in the weekend and could allow for some gales on the outer waters. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Randolph, ME
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location: 44.23, -69.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 290000 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 700 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather is expected through mid to late week. The next chance for precipitation is this weekend when an area of low pressure coming up the U.S. East Coast passes near our region. At this time, it looks to pass south and east of the forecast area, resulting in only a chance for accumulating snow. However, uncertainty remains concerning the ultimate track of this potential system.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. 7PM UPDATE . Made some adjustment to cloud cover and temperatures overnight. Models still struggling in identifying this relatively thin layer of clouds between about 4000 and 6000 FT. This will slowly erode from the northwest as drier air moves in overnight, but for a while we will stay cloudy which will prevent us from cooling much. Should see our greatest temperature drops closer to sunrise when clouds finally do clear up. Raised temperatures a few degrees for most locations for overnight lows.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION . Upper level low has continued to move slowly out of the maritimes today. As it does a series of weak disturbances have helped to keep cloud cover in place across our area. Models have been slow to pick up on this low level moisture and I have increased the cloud cover through the overnight hours. With the cloud cover have leaned a bit warmer on the low temperatures although the general cold advection pattern will still allow for temperatures to fall into the teens.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. The clearing is headed our way with clear skies now approaching the St. Lawrence river from northern Quebec. Expect this dry air to sink southwards into our region on the northerly flow. High pressure will build southwards out of Ontario with clear and cold conditions for Wednesday. High temperatures will arrive in the late morning as colder air filters in. For Wednesday night expect the clear skies and high pressure to offer good radiational cooling especially in the mountain valleys and have used the colder MOS guidance which pushes lows to near 10 below in the north.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Overview: Surface high pressure will be dominant over New England through the beginning of the long term period, allowing for generally quiet weather Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances begin to increase on Saturday as low pressure develops off the mid- Atlantic coast and remain elevated through Sunday as the low moves to our southeast and toward the Canadian Maritimes. Some uncertainty remains with the ultimate track of that system. Temperatures will generally be slightly above average over the period.

Impacts: Minimal, as there is still low confidence of any significant impacts from the system late in the weekend.

Details: Broad surface high pressure is expected to persist over the northeast U.S. Thursday and Friday, continuing the generally quiet weather we have been experiencing early this week. Thursday looks like the coldest day of the long term period and Thursday night looks like the coldest night and, with high pressure nearly overhead, dropped those lows a few degrees below the blended guidance. Otherwise, stayed close to the multi-model blend through the rest of the period where temperatures are expected to be slightly above average.

There are some differences from this time yesterday in the deterministic global guidance, but the overall evolution is similar. On Friday, a mid-upper level ridge builds over the western U.S. and a mid-upper level trough begins to build over the Great Lakes. At the same time, a shortwave will move out of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast and make its way to the southeast U.S. coast over the same period. The southern system develops a surface low that continues moving northeast off the U.S. East Coast on Saturday, intensifying as it does so, and ultimately ends up near the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday morning. In general, the latest deterministic guidance agrees that this system will stay well to the southeast of Cape Cod and only provide a glancing blow to our region late Saturday through early Sunday morning. It should also be noted that the global model ensembles are beginning to narrow down their range of possible storm tracks and locations; the Euro ensemble still ranges from Cape Cod to between Bermuda and the Bahamas, but both it and the GFS ensemble are beginning to cluster to the south and east of the 40N/70W benchmark. In summary, much like the previous forecast, keeping chance PoPs in the forecast beginning Saturday and lasting through Sunday as that looks like the best window for any precipitation from this system. Based on the current storm track, any precipitation would be snow with possibly some rain mixed in near the immediate southwest ME and NH coasts and inland southern NH during the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday.

As mentioned in the impacts section, there is still low confidence for any significant impacts from this system beyond the chance for accumulating snowfall. Astronomical tides are low this weekend, so even if the system ultimately tracks further west, any coastal flooding impacts would likely be minor and primarily due to splashover.

In the wake of that system, things will remain unsettled on Monday as a weak shortwave brings snow showers to the mountains, spreading to the rest of our region Monday night. By Tuesday morning, a low pressure system may be approaching our region from the Great Lakes, bringing another round of precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term . Widespread cloud cover across the region however ceilings are mainly VFR with just a few MVFR observations in the upslope region of and under the few snow showers that have continued through AUG. Expect a 4000-5000ft ceiling to continue through much of the overnight before clearing skies arrive from north to south as high pressure builds in for tomorrow. Clear skies will then continue through the day on Wednesday.

Long Term . Broad high pressure dominates the region Thursday and Friday, bringing mainly VFR conditions to all terminals. A coastal system may bring MVFR/IFR restrictions to PWM, RKD, and possibly AUG Saturday into Sunday; however, uncertainty still exists as to how close this system gets to our region.

MARINE. Short Term . Cloudy skies will continue across the region overnight. Cold high pressure will build south through the day on Wednesday. As it does a few wind gusts to 25kts are possible but not widespread enough to warrant an SCA at this time.

Long Term . With high pressure building into the Northeast Thursday and Friday, conditions on the waters will be below SCA criteria. Current forecast suggests that a coastal system will pass to our south and east Saturday into Sunday which would cause seas to build to 5 ft with gusts to 25-30 kt Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon over the outer waters. It should be noted that some uncertainty remains with the ultimate track of that system; a closer approach than the current forecast would lead to gales and higher waves.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM UPDATE . Kimble SHORT TERM . Curtis LONG TERM . Watson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 42 mi83 min N 18 G 23 31°F 42°F3 ft1008.5 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi83 min N 16 G 19 29°F 40°F2 ft1008.9 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 47 mi57 min 31°F 38°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Augusta, Augusta State Airport, ME6 mi94 minN 16 G 2110.00 miOvercast28°F17°F63%1010.6 hPa
Wiscasset Airport, ME20 mi94 minVar 310.00 miOvercast30°F18°F61%1010.7 hPa
Waterville, Waterville Robert LaFleur Airport, ME22 mi91 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast27°F18°F69%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAUG

Wind History from AUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N6NW4N4N4NW3N8NW4N5N6N6N7N85N9N7N8N8N9N10N7N8N16
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1 day agoS4S5SW5S4SW6W5W3SW5SW5SW7SW53SW8W7NW7W6W5W6W6W7W7NW4NW5NW3
2 days agoNE6N56NE7NE7N5N6N8N9NW9NW65NW5N4SW3W5W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Kennebec River, Maine
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:54 AM EST     4.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:31 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:00 PM EST     5.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:30 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.92.23.64.54.84.53.82.91.80.90.50.51.22.43.84.85.254.33.32.110.4

Tide / Current Tables for Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current
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Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:57 AM EST     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM EST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:30 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:00 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:52 PM EST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.30.30.80.70.50.30.1-0.4-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.600.60.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.