Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stronach, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 132342 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 742 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 556 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

An area of congested cu in sw portions of the forecast area has bubbled up into some showers. Have added sct showers in eastern Manistee Co and adjoining parts of nearby counties. These should fade out entirely by 8-9 pm. Note that these are entirely separate from the virga/wanna-be sprinkles in eastern upper MI.

NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

. Quiet weather continues .

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Surface high pressure remains across the Great Lakes although weakening some as high pressure center over James Bay becomes dominant. Aloft, sharpening short-wave ridging extends through the Upper Midwest into Ontario. Convectively induced short-wave trough (MCV) is very slowly making it's way through the western Great Lakes driving a good amount of mid/high cloud cover through the region. Earlier spotty showers on radar have mostly ended. Still some returns moving through parts of NW Lower Michigan and the E UP. Mostly virga. given dry air below roughly 15K feet. But, we did get a FB report of sprinkles in the Soo around 120 PM.

Further west, stronger southerly return flow of moisture/ instabilty remains contained up through the Midwest into the northern Plains. Earlier convection along the eastern fringe of the instability gradient in central Wisconsin has also dwindled, but with some additional high cloud cover heading this way. Moisture/instability axis will remain bottled up to our west for at least the next few days with no risk for convection here.

Primary Forecast Concerns: None of consequence. MCV will make very slow progress through the region tonight through Friday, stalling over northern Lower Michigan Friday while some semblance of a blocking pattern develops across the region. Remaining spotty showers/elevated radar returns should fade away over the next few to several hours. But, sct-bkn mid and high cloud cover remains across the region into tonight before slowly thinning out late tonight into Friday.

Meanwhile, with easterly flow off Lake Huron overtop a cooling inland boundary layer, we could see a touch of marine induced stratus/fog develop along the Huron coast later tonight.

Otherwise, relatively mild temperatures anticipated for tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Warm again for Friday with highs spanning the 80s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunder possible Saturday afternoon/evening and again Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging continues to dominate northern Michigan's weather through at least Saturday afternoon. This ridge of high pressure begins a push eastward and allows a weak cold front associated with an area of low pressure over Canada to begin an approach into the Great Lakes region Saturday evening and provides the next chances for some rain showers . beginning in eastern upper and progressing to the east and southward through the night. Thunder will be possible late Saturday during the overnight hours and through Sunday evening. Don't expect any severe storms at this time due to weak shear (forecast to be 25kts or below) and weak instability, although SPC has a marginal threat over the CWA with the Day 3 Outlook. Will reevaluate again during the overnight hours and again tomorrow. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid 80s and a bit more humid Saturday with southerly flow advecting low level moisture into the forecast area. Nighttime lows will be in the mid 50s to near 60. Winds will continue to be light out of the south to southwest under high pressure through Saturday night . until the aforementioned cold front passes Sunday, then the winds will veer to northwesterly.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: None

Longwave troughing will encompass the area from Hudson Bay down into the Great Lakes to start Monday as ridging takes hold of the CONUS west of the Mississippi River. At the surface, high pressure builds across the north-central CONUS underneath subsidence aloft provided at the ridge-trough inflection point. With low-level moisture wiped from the area prior to the start of the period and sinking air overhead, rain chances will be muted through at least the first half of next week. This will bring a beautiful, cooler start to the work week as highs will drop down close to 70 across northern Michigan with plentiful sunshine. Overnight lows could drop down into the low to mid 40s early next week as well. Weak northeasterly winds through the first half of the week will keep moisture return and warmer temps at bay heading towards the weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 741 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

VFR.

Sct showers/TSRA popped up late in the afternoon, east of mbL and south of TVC. These are quickly fading away, as is our diurnal cu field. Plenty of mid and high clouds still linger, but these will thin out tonight as an upper level disturbance exits the area. Mainly VFR conditions expected, though would not totally preclude a touch of thin ground fog late tonight.

Light, mainly easterly winds.

MARINE. Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Light winds/waves will persist across the region through tonight. East to southeast winds increase a bit for Friday into Friday night with some gustiness into the teens. But still below small craft criteria.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	4 mi	21 min	NW 1.9 G 2.9	76°F			1020 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	18 mi	21 min	N 5.1 G 7	75°F			1020 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	22 mi	43 min	NNW 4.1 G 8
45024	24 mi	21 min	NNW 5.8 G 5.8	73°F	73°F	1 ft	1019 hPa	70°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	4 mi	65 min	NW 4	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	83°F	64°F	55%	1018.7 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI	20 mi	66 min	NNW 7	10.00 mi	Fair	79°F	64°F	61%	1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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