Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stronach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 7:47PM Monday September 20, 2021 12:49 AM EDT (04:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:06PMMoonset 5:50AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
.gale warning in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday morning...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.
Monday night..South winds to 30 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:202109200900;;882374 FZUS53 KGRR 200205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-200900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stronach, MI
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location: 44.23, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 200348 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1148 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Mainly light south-southeasterly winds continue tonight . aiding to gradually bring deeper moisture into northern Michigan. First hints of this evident on satellite a bit of cirrus makes inroads across the M-55 corridor attm. Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated tonight, and few changes to the going forecast anticipated Lows quite a bit warmer than last night. ranging from the mid 50s to the low 60s area-wide.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

High pressure is just ne of Lk Ontario, extending ridging back toward southern lower MI. A cold front is advancing eastward across eastern ND and central SD. In between these features, southerly surface winds and associated warm advection are contributing to warmer max temps than we saw yesterday. That southerly flow is still rather dry. We've seen a few patches of mid clouds around eastern upper MI today, nothing else. But a cu field in the southern lakes and points south illustrates that a more moist airmass lurks down there.

The pressure gradient will tighten a bit tonight, though surface winds will not respond accordingly as diurnal heating/mixing is lost. Warm and especially moist advection will be increasing just off the surface, per 12Z Nam Bufr soundings. Both patchy stratocu and cirrus will make a push from south to north into northern MI, toward and after midnight. Abundant dry air is still found at the mid-levels, and there is no apparent risk for precip tonight.

Min temps will not be as cool as the last couple of nights, thanks to increasing clouds and surface dew points, and a bit of wind. Mins will be mainly in the 50s, with the nw lower MI coast closer to 60f.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

. Soaking rains Monday into Tuesday .

High impact weather potential: Heavy rain potential late Monday through Tuesday.

Synopsis/Pattern: Longwave troughing shifts from the Rockies into the Plains Monday into Tuesday. Ahead of the main longwave trough will be a shortwave moving up through the mid-mississippi valley into the upper Great Lakes early Monday, bringing our next round of rain through the day Monday. This will be quickly followed by more heavy rain as a strong cold front moves through Michigan early Tuesday.

Forecast/Details: By Monday morning southerly flow will be in full force, increasing synoptic moisture across our area. Believe the morning hours will take a bit to saturate the entire atmospheric column, but by midday PWATs will quickly increase to around 1.6 to 1 8". a good 2 to 3 St. Dev above normal for late September. With better forcing ahead of the main trough still to our west believe Monday afternoon will just be a precursor to the heaviest rain (coming later). But Monday afternoon will still see some heavier showers with embedded thunder with rounds of rain moving generally south to north through the early evening. We may get a bit of a break Monday evening and early overnight before the best forcing and additional moisture pooling ahead of the strong cold front. Heavy rain along the eastward moving cold front will start in the wee- hours Tuesday morning and will last into the afternoon at least. Training storms on Tuesday is a possibility with forcing and moisture transport parallel to the front. By Tuesday night some areas could receive between 1.0 and 1.5 inches. Our area remains in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday, with any areas that get rain Monday possibly at risk of ponding/flooding of low lying areas.

Forcing/moisture from the front start to depart Tuesday evening and overnight, but the longwave trough evolves into a cut-off low across the Ohio Valley Wednesday, with an associated surface low forming along the front near Ohio. This will keep shower chances going at least near the Lake Huron shoreline . while most other areas stay cool and dry.

Highs Monday will be lower than previously thought thanks to increasing cloud cover and showers. Tuesday's highs of around 70 will occur early in the day, ahead of the front . with strong cold air advection tanking temperatures for Wednesday, as we struggle to get up to and past 60 degrees.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

High impact weather potential: Minimal

Guidance is coming into a little better agreement with the upper level cut off lifting toward James Bay by Friday . but beyond this guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the upper level pattern and associated surface features . with another wave pushing into the upper Great Lakes, and possibly becoming yet another cutoff low through the weekend. With cool air aloft it looks like much of late week into the weekend will have a good chance at cooler weather and lake effect showers. Another front may pass through Friday night into the weekend, enhancing shower chances, but again this is uncertain. Well below normal temperatures Thursday should trend upward a bit closer to normal by the weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1148 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

VFR conditions expected to continue across northern Michigan tonight; however, higher clouds will begin to increase over the next several hours. A more substantial surge of moisture will trek northward across the region on Monday, and as a result, MVFR CIGS and associated shower chances arrive at mbL/TVC by early afternoon -- slightly later at PLN/APN. There is a low chance of IFR CIGS in any heavier showers Monday afternoon/evening, although confidence is low in that at this point.

MARINE. Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

High pressure will continue to move away from the eastern lakes, while a cold front advances from the northern plains. Southerly winds will ramp up Monday into Monday night and Tuesday. Gales are increasingly likely on many of our Lake MI waters (at least) Mon night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342. GALE WARNING from 8 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321.

UPDATE . MG NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . MG MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 4 mi70 min ESE 6 G 8.9 70°F 1017.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 18 mi70 min ESE 8.9 G 13 72°F 1016.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi50 min E 5.1 G 7 72°F 63°F
45024 23 mi20 min SSE 14 G 18 72°F 69°F2 ft1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI4 mi54 minE 610.00 miFair68°F64°F87%1016.3 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi4.6 hrsE 310.00 miFair69°F63°F80%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E5E6E6E6E5E7E7E7E5SE6SE6S75S656S5SE4E3SE4E4E5E6
1 day agoNE5NE6E5E4E3CalmCalmE3E3E6E7E7E7W4CalmW8NW7NW8N4CalmCalmCalmE4E5
2 days agoE3SE3SE43SE43NE4NE33S7S5S11
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SW5SW46N3N3N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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