Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stronach, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 032240 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 540 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 340 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Southern edge of quasi-zonal northern branch flow impacting the Great Lakes today . with a prominent split in the large scale flow along the west coast with a little more active southern branch including a slow moving closed low moving into southern California. Quick moving short wave trough passing east of the upper Lakes this afternoon . with drier/colder air advecting into the state behind this feature. Moisture associated with this wave is pretty shallow (at and below 800mb) but has been enough to squeeze out some light snow/flurries and sprinkles. 16z surface analysis shows a 1009mb surface low north of Lake Ontario with a cold front trailing back to the west across northern Lower Michigan/northern Wisconsin.

Rising surface pressures expected across the upper Lakes tonight in the wake of this afternoon's cold front . as 1030mb surface ridge builds southward from northwest Ontario. As upstream flow becomes more amplified/anticyclonic . a fast moving short wave trough will dive into Michigan after midnight.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Current broken area of light precip moving southeast through Lower Michigan east of the US-131 corridor should move out of northeast Lower around 00z. This will be followed by a push of cold air with the coldest air settling into far eastern Lake Superior and Lake Huron with 850mb temperatures in the -12C to -16C range overnight. This results in the deepest lake induced CBL depth occurring over Lake Huron (inversion heights around 850mb/-15C). So expect to see increasing snow shower activity in and around Thunder Bay off Lake Huron . which could be enhanced by a period of stronger low level convergence with some possibility of an inverted trough axis rotating back off Lake Huron and into northeast Lower. Off Lake Superior and Lake Michigan cloud depths expected to be much shallower so not expecting much more than flurries at this point.

Low temperatures expected to sink into the teens across much of eastern Upper and interior northern Lower . with some single digit

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 340 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

High impact weather: None is expected.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Any lake effect?

Northwest flow aloft will be across the region through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered across north central Canada will circulate chilly air into northern Michigan. So overall a fairly quiet few days are anticipated. However, it may turn just marginally cold enough for a bit of lake effect late Thursday night into Friday morning but the airmass is fairly dry (mean 850-700 mb rh only between 30 and 40 percent). So will just have slight chance pops in north or north northwest lake effect favored areas for now as this could be more of a cloud issue. Elsewhere, just some instability driven cu during the day. Temperatures will average out a few degrees below normal through the period.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 340 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

Upper level ridging builds in Sunday into Monday morning before a moisture starved short wave temporarily flattens out the ridge Monday afternoon and evening. Ridging increases again Tuesday then attention will turn to a possible strong area of low pressure moving by to our west toward midweek (extended models vary on the strength and timing). As far as temperatures go, Saturday night has the potential to be very cold with surface high pressure across the region. Could see some spots dropping below zero (lowered the blend by several degrees). Besides that, warming daytime temperatures are expected with highs of well into the 30s to around 40 Sunday, the mid 40s to low 50s Monday, then well into the 40s to the mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday (could even see a few spots hitting 60 Wednesday depending upon the timing/details of the possible surface low).

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 540 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

Colder air now in the process of spilling into northern Michigan leading to expanding MVFR lake induced cloud cover spreading across northern Lower Michigan. Thus MVFR conditions will be the rule through the night. Only exception might be mbL where current lake cloud trajectories may keep cloud cover out of that area through the evening. On the other coast, some minor impact light snow shower activity is possible in the APN area tonight.

On Thursday, Drier air attempts to wedge down into northern Michigan and expected to bring a diminishing cloud cover trend and conditions returning to VFR.

MARINE. Issued at 340 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

North-northwest winds expected tonight across Lakes Michigan/Huron as surface ridge axis builds south. Will be close to small craft conditions around the Lower Michigan nearshore zones tonight . and maybe another brief period of small craft conditions around Presque Isle Light later Thursday afternoon or evening with continued northwest winds. Winds are forecast to increase again from the northwest Friday which will probably require another round of advisories.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ347-348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JPB SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . BA MARINE . JPB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Ludington, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	4 mi	39 min	NNE 10	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	35°F	28°F	76%	1019.2 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI	20 mi	40 min	N 8 G 14	10.00 mi	Fair	36°F	28°F	74%	1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)

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NW16 G23

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