Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stronach, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 090449 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1149 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 918 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

Nearly stationary surface frontal boundary extends from northern Ontario, southwest across eastern Upper MI, and into the central Plains. Meanwhile a strong, positively tilted, upper trof is diving across the northern Rockies. Temperatures across the forecast area have been holding fairly steady in the middle and upper 30s, although surface dew point values are near or below 32 degrees at some locales.

Radar returns overhead and upstream for quite a ways are still minimal, but this is expected based on the latest high- resolution model guidance. WAA/isentropic lift really gets going to our southwest after midnight as the upper trof draws closer, with saturation occurring and precipitation blossoming after 09z and spreading into the forecast area from the south toward daybreak. There is still a window late tonight and/or Monday morning for light freezing drizzle or freezing rain across the eastern UP, tip of the mitt, and higher inland elevations of northern Lower. Otherwise, it looks like a predominantly snow event for eastern UP where low levels are a bit colder, and northern Lower MI looks like mainly rain until colder air spills in behind the front later Monday.

No significant changes were needed to the forecast at this time. Have tweaked hourly conditions into Monday based on the latest expectations.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

. Increasing precip chances late .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Some light freezing drizzle/light icing is possible in spots later tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals broad troughing through Canada and a short-wave trough axis sliding out of the northern/central Rockies into the Plains. Area of developing low pressure is along the front range of the Rockies just ahead of the short-wave trough.

Closer to home, surface low pressure is over western Quebec with a cold front that stretches down through central Upper Michigan and on into the Midwest. Corridor of stratus spans the northern Plains into Upper Michigan along and behind the front. South of the bridge we started the day with some sunshine and lots of mid/high cloud cover. But more or less solid stratocu (with a lake component) has enveloped northern and central Lower Michigan through the course of the day. Otherwise the weather remains quiet and somewhat mild with diminishing southwest winds ahead of the front.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Precip development and type later tonight.

Surface cold front is expected to ease down into the Straits region before stalling and may yet bring some spotty light precip (SN/DZ/FZDZ) into parts of eastern Upper Michigan over the next several hours. South of bridge, generally quiet weather continues for much of tonight. Forecast soundings do show a modestly deep low level saturated layer across the region through the night suggesting there could be a little bit of drizzle/freezing drizzle . especially overnight. But I don't think the saturated layer is deep enough to warrant inclusion in the forecast at this juncture So. plan is to have a dry forecast across northern Lower MI for much of the night.

Meanwhile. upstream short-wave trough and deepening surface low slide into the Midwest tonight, with the surface low further deepening and tracking up through northern Lower Michigan along the stalled boundary on Monday. Strong moisture advection/forcing and a widespread area of precipitation is expected to develop off to our S/SW later this evening and spread up through Lower Michigan overnight, reaching our southern two tier of counties toward Monday morning. Based on forecast soundings/thermal profiles/surface temps . precip should largely be rain although just a touch of freezing rain is possible across the higher terrain early on.

Not planning any headlines at this juncture. But later shifts may consider if freezing drizzle/freezing rain becomes a bit more robust than currently expected.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

High impact weather potential: Wintry mix of ice, snow, and rain Monday with lake effect/enhanced snow behind the departing system Tuesday and Wednesday.

A deepening low pressure system traversing from the western Great Lakes and trekking towards northern Michigan will continue to usher in "warmer" temperatures as most of the forecast area resides in the warm sector of the system. This will produce chances of a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow. This mix will last much into Monday as temperatures vary greatly from north to south . with eastern upper only reaching into the mid 20s, while the southern part of the forecast area will still see highs in the upper 30s to near 40. This will be tricky to pinpoint the exact areas of p- types . and will most likely be a scenario where the forecast changes throughout the day. As the storm departs to the east and cold air filters in on northwesterly winds . the entire forecast area will transition to only snow. This lake effect snow may be enhanced at times early on as lingering deeper synoptic moisture remains. Winds will be light and variable as the center of the low pressure system treks over northern Michigan and become northwesterly late Monday into early Tuesday morning behind the system. Winds and fetch along Lake Superior will be the most favorable for lake effect snow over eastern upper . as a Lake Superior connection for northwest lower will only occur for several hours before the winds back to westerly . ending the connection. Eastern upper should see the higher amounts of snow . possibly some locations seeing 6-10 inches. Advisory headlines will most likely be needed at some point. Winds once again pick up in intensity (but not nearly as high as Sunday) as the system departs Tuesday morning . with gusts as high as 25 mph. Temperatures will decrease throughout the day Monday, and only reach into the teens to low 20s during the day Tuesday and even colder Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the single digits to teens above zero Monday night.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

CAA continuing through Wednesday night, with 850mb temperatures still near -20C . this, along with lingering moisture will continue to generate lake effect snow through Wednesday evening. High pressure is then progged to build into the Great Lakes region from the northern Plains. This drier air will give the forecast area a very quick reprive from precipitation before other weak disturbances moves in from the west and renews chances of light snow through the rest of the period. Temperatures will reach into the low to mid 20s Thursday , but moderating a bit to the low 30s by Friday. Lows will be in the single digits above zero Wednesday night as cold air advection continues it's assault on the forecast area and warm a bit each night thereafter . to near 20 by Friday night.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1146 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

Not many changes from 00Z TAF issuance. Widespread MVFR conditions will degrade to IFR by later tonight, with these conditions lingering for most of the 06Z TAF valid time. A low pressure system will spread drizzle/rain over the northern MI terminals late tonight into Monday as a storm system moves through the area. The precipitation will change over to snow Monday evening as cold air filters across the region behind the system. Winds will be pretty light for much of the period, but will turn northwest and become gusty Monday evening in the wake of the system.

MARINE. Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

Gusty southwest winds continue to weaken this afternoon . below gale force at this juncture. Thus gale warnings will be cancelled with the afternoon forecast. A few small craft advisories will replace the gales through the evening.

Relatively lighter winds/waves for later tonight into Monday. Stronger winds develop later Monday and Monday night as an area of low pressure tracks through the region. Additional marine headlines may be needed at that time.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . PB NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . PB MARINE . BA

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	4 mi	25 min	E 4.1 G 7	33°F			1008.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	18 mi	85 min	E 5.1 G 6	33°F			1009.1 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	22 mi	53 min	E 2.9 G 5.1	32°F				31°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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S16 G22

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S24 G29

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S19 G25

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N11 G18

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N7 G12

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NW5 G13

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E3 G6

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	4 mi	69 min	ESE 3	2.50 mi	Fog/Mist	29°F	28°F	96%	1009.2 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI	20 mi	70 min	N 0	0.25 mi	Fog	32°F	30°F	96%	1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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