Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stronach, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 919 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Residual lake effect rain showers continue to steadily diminish in both areal coverage and intensity with the departing of the upper level wave and as over-lake instability wanes in response to warming low levels. Pronounced upstream ridge axis has begun to lean into Michigan...and then will continue overnight.
Diminishing trend in rain showers will continue...but low cloud cover should remain in tact for the remainder of the night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Pattern/synopsis: High pressure over MN is moving south. East of the high, cold advection continues on northerly flow. The high moves to MO by later Wednesday, with a ridge axis folding into northern MI in the afternoon.

Forecast: A couple of shortwave trofs will scoot off to the se and e tonight, and deeper moisture will be rapidly waning. 850mb temps of -4/-5C will be sufficient for lake effect clouds and some showers in n to nnw flow areas tonight. But overall, with loss of diurnal heating and moisture, coverage/intensity will tend to wane. That process accelerates toward Wed morning, when 850mb warm advection kicks in. Precip coverage will still be respectable (sct to nmrs) this evening, especially in nw lower MI. Don't expect snow to mix in much, as the fetch will tend to keep showers off of the higher terrain even as we try to cool off tonight.

Suppose a stray sprinkle could linger past sunrise Wednesday, but for the most part precip should be gone. As the surface ridge builds in, clouds will tend to erode, even with very shallow chilly air in place. Skies becoming mostly sunny by mid afternoon across the entire forecast area.

Lows tonight from 30 to 40f. Highs Wednesday near 50f to the mid 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Rather frustrating pattern over the next week for those wishing for winter. Simply put, large dome of high pressure builds over the Great Lakes region, with height anomalies ~2-3 sigmas above average.
Sfc response will be for high pressure to slide to the east to southeast with time, allowing for modestly breezy southwest flow, and thus, anomalously warm temperatures to filter into northern Michigan. High temperatures approach the mid 60s to around 70 degrees late this week through at least the weekend with winds 10 to 20 mph, a bit higher across the Lakes, specifically Michigan & Superior. Chances for precipitation look light and inconsequential at this time through the early portions of next week. That being said there is a low chance a flimsy boundary clips portions of the eastern UP Saturday night into Sunday with a few light rain showers.
None of the ensembles are enthused though with <10% chance for 0.1" of rain across the E UP (which has trended northward compared to yesterday). All this to say, very insignificant rain showers possible Sat night into early Sunday (mainly northern portions of the area) unless a fundamental change occurs in the weather pattern aloft.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Last in a long line of waves rotating around the base of the upper trough has dropped SE of Michigan...resulting in a steady diminish and eventually an end to residual shower activity overnight. Gradual clearing will take place from north to south on Wednesday
Prevailing cigs will remain low VFR overnight
briefly drop to MVFR within more persistent shower activity.
N/NW surface winds will continue to diminish to around 10 kts overnight into Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ347>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321.