Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stronach, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low pressure that crossed lower MI last night is now situated well downstream in far southern Quebec/just north of upstate NY. Pressure gradient has tightened significantly this morning between that departing low and high pressure to our west -- this'll remain the case through this evening. Parent trough axis to the ongoing late week inclement weather is in the process of crossing the western Great Lakes this afternoon and early evening, with mid-upper level heights rising in its wake for the weekend. By Saturday afternoon through Sunday, northern MI will lie on the northern periphery of ~1032mb sfc high pressure centered to our south. Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to be crossing well to our north across parts of northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba/Ontario. A tightening pressure gradient locally will be the result once again, with renewed breezy to windy conditions. High pressure largely expected to remain in control all the way through the middle of next week before shower chances return toward the very tail end of the forecast period as a northern stream system looks to pass by to our north.

Forecast Details: Stronger dynamics are in the process of shifting south and east out of northern MI this afternoon, largely taking any synoptically driven rain showers along with it. However, strong cold advection supporting increased overlake instability on the surrounding Great Lakes will likely keep at least scattered shower activity across parts of the forecast area into this evening (most numerous through sunset in the typical NNW flow lake belts). Still a non-zero chance that a few wet snowflakes mix in after sunset, primarily across the typically colder higher terrain/ interior areas of north-central lower MI -- that's if these areas can materialize a few lingering showers, something that's not favored given northerly low-level winds. Otherwise, windy conditions remain through this evening as well with gusts as high as 25-40 mph area-wide (highest near the lakeshores). Winds relax mid-evening through early Saturday morning.

More sunshine expected for the weekend ahead, but breezy to windy conditions expected to return by Saturday afternoon lasting through the day on Sunday as northern MI becomes sandwiched between high pressure centered to our south and low pressure crossing well to the north. Winds largely out of the southwest through this time frame, gusting as high as 20-30 mph on Saturday, and 25-35+ mph at times on Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday in the low-mid 50s moderate on Sunday -- largely ranging from the upper 50s far north to the low- mid 60s across much of northern lower.

This warming trend from Sunday continues into at least the middle of next week as Pacific-dominant flow pattern should allow temperatures to remain above normal for mid-October. Highs Monday through Wednesday largely in the 60s area-wide, but a few spots climbing into the low 70s seem pretty likely. Next rain chances look to hold off until Thursday as a northern stream wave is progged to pass by to our north. Doesn't appear this will be a big rain maker, but may put a damper on temperatures. Even so, no glaring signals for a return of below or even near normal temperatures through the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 655 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

NNW flow lake effect rain (snowflake?) showers continue into the evening but should largely taper off by 4-6z. A few showers could linger toward CIU/APN or TVC a bit longer, and possible we see another uptick in shower activity around 8-12z before things clear out. Winds generally back to NW and W overnight, dropping to 5-12kts with gusts under 20kts, turning to the SW after 12z and increasing to 10-15kts again, gusting 20-30kts by afternoon; could go light and vrb overnight and if so, not impossible some fog could develop but not overly confident except perhaps for TVC. Cigs will flirt with MVFR thru tonight; VFR expected for Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.