Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Southwest Harbor, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:58AMSunset 8:23PM Friday July 10, 2020 8:40 PM EDT (00:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:42PMMoonset 10:27AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 623 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Areas of fog. A slight chance of rain after midnight. A chance of rain late. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning, then rain likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ005 623 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pres will move E of the waters tonight. Low pres will track W of the waters Sat. A cold front will approach from the W Sun night then cross the region Mon. An upper level trough will remain over the region through Tue then slowly move E Wed.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southwest Harbor CDP, ME
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As of July 8 NOAA did a network migration which caused this Forecast section to break. They are aware of the problem and working on it with high priority.
location: 44.24, -68.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 102218 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 618 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Fay will approach from the south tonight then track west of the area Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Sunday followed by upper level low pressure early next week slowly exiting the region to the east Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. 6:18 pm update: Area radars show one shower in Quebec just west of the Quebec/Maine border. There is no lightning activity showing up or even in cloud electrical activity. Have trimmed back/removed most of the PoPs for this evening as well as dropped the mention of any thunderstorms. Low clouds are moving in along the immediate coast and will continue to slowly lift to north tonight. No other significant changes at this time.

Previous discussion: Any lingering showers/thunderstorms will end this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Otherwise, generally expect partly cloudy skies across much of the region this evening with partly/mostly cloudy skies along the Downeast coast. Tropical Storm Fay will begin to lift across western New England overnight. Clouds will increase across the forecast area overnight. Rain chances will also increase, from southwest to northeast, across the forecast area overnight. Rain is likely late tonight across southwest portions of the forecast area, with a slight chance across northeast areas. Areas of fog will develop across Downeast areas tonight, with patchy fog developing across northern areas. The remnants of the tropical storm will track west of Maine Saturday. The heaviest rains are expected to remain west of the forecast area, though rain totals across the region are still uncertain. However, generally expect the greater rain totals across western portions of the forecast area along with the favored upslope terrain areas which could help enhance rainfall. Expect the rain will taper to showers Saturday afternoon. Could also have a chance of afternoon thunderstorms Saturday. Low temperatures tonight will range through the 60s across much of the forecast area, with upper 50s to lower 60s along the Downeast coast. High temperatures Saturday will range from the lower to mid 70s across much of the forecast area, with upper 60s to around 70 along the Downeast coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Rain showers will be possible again Sunday, which for our drought stricken CWA, will be welcome. Thursday’s Drought Monitor put all of the CWA in a moderate drought status (D1) with Severe Drought (D2) outlined across the Allagash and St. John Valleys. EDDI values reflect recent rains across the far west North Woods and Coastal Downeast, but much of the north and central zones remain in mid-drought categories despite localized thunderstorm relief.

Tropical airmass continues to transit through New England Saturday evening and overnight. As TS Fay is helped northward w/ the trough, NAEFS and ECMWF Mean illustrate lowering PWATs from 99.5 percentile to more avg values for much of Maine into Sunday. With trough slow to progress eastward, and a SW LLJ off the coast, this drier air works its way over Maine. Depending on timing and erosion of leftover deeper cloud, some sun breaking out may happen Sunday morning. This would lead to greater destabilization into the early afternoon. However, with the low’s northward trajectory, forcing isn’t as pronounced in the mid levels and cold air aloft is slow to advect into the region. This is all despite ample 0-6km shear values 30-40kt and conditionally good MLCAPE values around 1500 j/kg. SREF LI values settle around -3. With greatest divergence aloft focused across the north via GFS and ECMWF, will keep QPF focus here and maintain the chance for thunder over a good portion of the area. Trends should be analyzed in the high resolution guidance for these convective ingredients. Gusty winds and small hail may be worthwhile to consider in the next update package for at least the Central Highlands northward, especially given some of the prelim NAMnest forecast soundings.

Shower and thunderstorm chances diminish overnight, with dry conditions expected. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms is during Monday afternoon as diurnal heating allows some convection to fire. Shear is the missing component in this case, ahead of an approaching system from the SW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low pressure will arrive with the base of a upper trough Monday night and Tuesday. This will bring showers and mild temperatures to the region. The slight chance for some thunder exists, with best lapse rates positioned over the Central Highlands in the afternoon hours. These chances dwindle into the evening hours as the low travels overhead. The low’s residence time lasts into Wednesday afternoon with showers in the area and more mild temperatures. Ridging works in from the west Wednesday evening, nudging the low eastward. This opens the door to SW flow and a warming trend come late week. Highs climb into the 80s across much of the state. I made some adjustments along the immediate coast to nudge temps down a bit given some of the SSW flow off the water being cooler than inland air Thurs and Fri amid zonal flow at the mid and upper levels.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels across Downeast areas with low clouds and fog early tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions then develop across the remainder of the forecast area through the overnight hours. Generally expect IFR/LIFR conditions across the forecast area Saturday. Rain will develop, from southwest to northeast, across the region overnight. Rain will persist early Saturday, then taper to showers during the afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorms are also possible Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Sunday: IFR to MVFR, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Showers and possible tstms. S wind 10-15 mph.

Sunday night: Showers and tstms early. VFR w/the possibility of MVFR and IFR late at night w/some fog and low cigs. Light SSW wind.

Monday: Patchy fog and low cigs early w/IFR in the morning. Otherwise, VFR. Light and variable wind becoming SW around 10 mph.

Monday night: VFR becoming MVFR and possibly IFR w/fog once again. SSE wind dropping below 10 mph.

Tuesday: IFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms, becoming VFR. SSE wind 10 mph.

Wednesday: Generally VFR.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels tonight through much of Saturday. However, seas could begin to reach small craft advisory levels later Saturday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the waters starting later Saturday afternoon. Visibilities will be reduced in fog tonight through Saturday. Rain will develop later tonight then persist Saturday. Could also have the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm Saturday.

SHORT TERM: The waters will be categorized by a SSW swell 5-7ft through Monday night with SCA conditions continuing. With a tropical disturbance passing inland to the west, expect a moist airmass to provide areal coverage of fog with low visibility through Sunday night. Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria of 25kt, however some gusts to 25kt will be possible Sunday afternoon in the outer coastal waters.

CLIMATE. Today was the 26th day this year with a high of 80 degrees (F) or warmer in Caribou, Maine. The long term (30 year average, 1981-2010) is 26 days. This is also be the earliest in the year that we have observed 26 days with a high of 80 or warmer in Caribou. Today was also the 7th day this year with a high of 90 or warmer, which ties with 1949, 1952, and 1995 for the 2nd most 90 degree days on record. The all-time record of 11 days was observed in 1944. Weather records in Caribou began in January 1939.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term . CB/Norcross Short Term . Cornwell Long Term . Cornwell Aviation . CB/Norcross/Cornwell Marine . CB/Norcross/Cornwell Climate . CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 13 mi53 min SSE 8 G 9.9 61°F 58°F1017.5 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 16 mi97 min E 3.9 G 3.9 56°F 51°F2 ft1018.4 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 22 mi41 min E 13 G 13 1017.1 hPa (-1.3)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 37 mi157 min E 9.7 G 12 58°F 1 ft1016 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME15 mi45 minN 010.00 miOvercast66°F64°F93%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHB

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4SW6SW3SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E3E5E6E7E5SE4S6SE5S7SE3Calm
1 day agoNW5S4SW6SW5CalmCalmS3SW3S3CalmCalmNE4CalmSE4E5SE6E6SE4SE5SE7SE5S8S6S3
2 days agoS13S8S5S6S8S5S8S10S10S11S10S10S14S10SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Bass Harbor, Mount Desert Island, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Mackerel Cove, Maine
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Mackerel Cove
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:59 AM EDT     10.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:29 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:39 PM EDT     9.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:44 PM EDT     1.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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68.39.910.5108.46.13.61.60.60.61.83.86.38.39.59.78.87.14.931.81.52.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.