Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Blue Hill, ME

KEY MESSAGES
1) Gusty winds will lead to patchy blowing and drifting of recent snowfall today, potentially limiting visibility.

2) Snow showers possible Friday night through Saturday night.

3) Potential for a storm to bring periods of snow to the north, and rain far Downeast coast mid-week next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Gusty winds will lead to patchy blowing and drifting of recent snowfall today, potentially limiting visibility.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Winds will increase today as the previous low pressure system continues to shift eastward and continue to deepen, tightening the pressure gradient aloft between the departing low and the incoming ridge of high pressure. Gusts 25 to 30 mph will have a chance at picking up recent snowfall, and winds of this strength could break through any weak crust that may have formed since snow stopped falling. The result will be brief periods of blowing snow through the day that could limit visibility, particularly around open fields. The primary result from these winds will be the drifting of snow, however, which may impact cleanup efforts as snow drifts back into cleared areas. Drifting snow may also become lofted as it drifts over snowbanks, providing another source of potential visibility decrease for those who are commuting or traveling today.

Gusts will become fewer in number overnight and through the day on Friday, with winds finally subsiding through the day on Friday. Winds overnight will couple with cold air temperatures, leading to wind chills falling below zero in the north, and potentially reaching double digits below zero in this area.
Despite clear skies, persistent pressure gradient will limit surface decoupling and reduce radiational cooling potential.
That said, more sheltered valleys, especially in the north, could see localized decoupling and air temperatures in these locations could approach 10 below zero.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow showers possible Friday night through Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Mid-level low pressure system in Quebec moves southeast through Maine on Saturday. Decent vorticity max moving in with this low, alongside some good mid-level lapse rates and positive omega values. That being said, PWATs are only around 0.25 inch, and relatively deep dry layers at 500 and 700mb heights could result in overall light snowfall accumulations. Showers could begin in the north and west late Friday night. Showers shift to the Crown of Maine by Saturday morning into evening. Showers then shift to the Crown on Maine and eastern Maine by Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Overall accumulations expected to only be an inch, but with good convective parameters, can not rule out a period of heavier showers, predominantly in the far north on Saturday. Relatively fluffy snow, with ratios around 18:1.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a system to bring periods of snow to the north, and rain far Downeast coast mid-week next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure system to the west quickly moves eastwards towards the region, bringing another potential for snow showers, and some rain along the Downeast coast. Warm air advection next week raises temperatures into the 30s for most of the region, which could cause some significant snow melt in places receiving rainfall. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing quickly overnight, which could cause issues for travel Wednesday night into Thursday. There is disagreement among the models in terms of timing for this system, with the GFS showing precipitation moving in Wednesday, while the ECMWF has precipitation move in late Wednesday night. This system is still far out however, so continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Today - Friday: Generally MVFR conditions will remain across all terminals through the early morning hours before scattering out into the day today as low pressure shifts eastward.
Generally VFR conditions persist through the day, though brief periods of MVFR vis are possible in BLSN, especially at northern terminals. NW winds will increase today, becoming 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts through this afternoon. Skies clear out overnight as VFR conditions continue, and these conditions will last into the day on Friday as well. Gusts will taper some overnight; enough for LLWS to develop overnight at around 40 kts. As diurnal mixing returns on Friday, LLWS will mix out and NW winds 5 to 10 kts may continue to gust to 20 kts until Friday evening, when winds will begin to diminish.

Friday night: VFR. W winds, shifting SW, around 5 kts.

Late Friday night-Saturday night: Most likely VFR at southern terminals. MVFR at northern terminals due to snow showers, with a potential for IFR condition in any stronger snow showers.
W/NW winds, at 5-10 kts.

Sunday-Sunday night: Generally VFR. NW winds around 10kts, becoming light overnight.

Monday: VFR/MVFR with potential snow showers at terminals. S winds at 5-10 kts.

MARINE
Small craft advisory conditions continue through the day today with gusts 25 to 30 kts, though a few gusts to 35 kts are possible near 25 nm out on the coastal waters. Seas 2 to 5 ft.
Winds will begin to subside late tonight into Friday morning, and gusts should remain below 25 kts through the day on Friday.
Light freezing spray possible for a few hours around sunrise this morning on the intracoastals, then the threat for light freezing spray returns across all waters tonight through Friday morning.

Generally seas and winds below Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Potential for low-end Small Craft conditions over the outer waters Sunday, and a potential for another Small Craft Wednesday night into Thursday. Light freezing spray early Sunday morning.
Potential for some rain Monday over waters, transitioning to snow Monday night. Rain possible again Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.