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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clayton, NY

February 19, 2025 7:09 AM EST (12:09 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:54 AM   Sunset 5:40 PM
Moonrise 12:11 AM   Moonset 9:36 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
   
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 935 Am Est Sun Jan 5 2025

This afternoon - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny.

Tonight - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Partly to mostly cloudy.

Monday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.

Monday night - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.

Tuesday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.

Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers Wednesday night.

Thursday - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
the saint lawrence seaway has closed for the 2024 season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume this spring when the river opens for navigation.
SLZ005
No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clayton, NY
   
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Area Discussion for Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 191144 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 644 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025

SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow south of Lake Ontario will gradually diminish through today. A weak low pressure wave will bring a chance for light snow Thursday. Meanwhile a cold air mass will remain in place this week, followed by a slight warming trend for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Lake effect continuing to weaken early this morning as inversion heights lower and deeper moisture is lost. However, it will still be cold enough beneath the inversion to support some lake snows throughout the day. Low level flow will remain around 300 degrees, focusing additional lake snows along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Additional accumulations will be on the order of just a few inches. For this update, the lake effect snow warnings have been canceled for Oswego, northern Cayuga and Wayne counties.
Otherwise, the remainder of today will feature dry, but continued cold weather with a mix of sun and clouds. While it will not be as windy as the previous couple of days, a few gusts between up to 25 mph are expected into this afternoon. Highs will only reach the teens to lower 20s.

Some leftover light lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario tonight, ahead of the leading edge of some light synoptic snow arriving toward Thursday morning across western New York. Lighter winds and some variable clearing could produce sharp drops in temperatures with most lows in the single digits and teens, but areas that remain clear long enough could have temperatures drop below zero, especially east of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A positively tilted 500mb trough will pivot across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday, with the main cyclonic circulation aloft shifting from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast by Thursday evening. The stronger forcing with this system will lie on the southeastern periphery of the low, though the increase in synoptic moisture and height falls to the north will cause snow to overspread much of the forecast area from the southeast during the day. Cold northwest flow will persist during this time as well, with 850H temps not moderating much until the system moves further into the northern Atlantic late Thursday night. This will allow for continued lake/upslope enhancement and chances for snowfall in many areas behind the system. Snowfall amounts through Thursday night will generally range from 1-3" in most areas south of Lake Ontario, with slightly higher totals (3-4") expected across the Chautauqua Ridge.
With a lack of lake enhancement to tap into, little to no accumulations expected across much of the North Country, outside of an inch or two across the Tug Hill/Western Adirondacks. While expected snowfall totals with this system remain on the lower-end, some minor impacts to travel are not out of the question for areas south of Lake Ontario Thursday.

A weakening 850H ridge will build east across the Great Lakes during the day Friday, with expansive sfc high pressure moving across the Ohio Valley. The axis of this ridge will not move overhead until Friday night, and given persistent cold northwest flow, could see lake effect snow showers lingering in some capacity east-southeast of both lakes, especially off Lake Ontario. Any snows that do persist will likely do so in a greatly diminished state as mid-level moisture is quickly stripped away ahead of the approaching ridge.

Temperatures Thursday through Friday night will continue to run cold, with highs in the teens to low 20s and lows in the teens and single digits.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mostly quiet weather for Saturday as the axis of a flattening mid- level ridge moves from central NY to eastern New England, and expansive sfc high pressure across the southeastern CONUS builds northward into the region. A series of transient shortwave troughs and weak cold fronts tracking southeast out of Canada and across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will then bring on and off chances for spotty snow showers through the remainder of the weekend. The high to our south should keep these features fairly subdued, especially south of Lake Ontario but depending on how cold it gets behind these weak systems, could see some added lake enhancement and increased opportunities for accumulating snowfall at times. At this juncture, this potential looks greatest east of Lake Ontario especially across the Tug and Western Dacks where some orographic lift may also come into play.

Long range guidance continues to indicate that a pair of much more robust shortwaves will then descend on the forecast area Monday and Tuesday. Chances for precipitation are comparatively much higher with these systems compared to the ones over the weekend, though temperatures at the sfc and aloft will have warmed enough by this point to call ptype into question. Not out of the question we even see some plain rain at times, especially across the lower terrain areas...Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Lake snows will weaken this morning, but a lowering inversion will likely lower cloud decks to MVFR at most locations.
Otherwise VFR weather will be found.

Outlook...

Tonight...VFR.
Thursday...A chance of snow/associated MVFR/IFR.
Friday.. MVFR improving to VFR.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

MARINE
Elevated northwest winds will maintain small craft advisory conditions along Lake Ontario this morning. Winds will gradually diminish today, with small craft headlines dropping off (lasting the longest from Hamlin to Mexico Bay).

A period of elevated northwest winds will develop on Lake Ontario Thursday night into Friday with marginal small craft conditions developing.

A period of strengthening southwesterly winds are possible this weekend as a tighter pressure gradient develops over the lower Great Lakes ahead of the next system.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ001.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ042- 045.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043-044.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 10 mi52 min 33°F
CAVN6 15 mi52 min 3°F 32°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 45 mi52 min 1°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
   
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KART WATERTOWN INTL,NY 18 sm13 minSE 0310 smClear-17°F-24°F69%30.34
KGTB WHEELERSACK AAF,NY 23 sm14 minWSW 0310 smClear-4°F-9°F77%30.26

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east  
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Montague, NY,





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