Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clayton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:10PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 8:53 PM EDT (00:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:34PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 733 Pm Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Rain through the early overnight, then a chance of showers late.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then lake effect showers likely early in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..West winds less than 10 knots. A chance of rain showers.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clayton, NY
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location: 44.24, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 222313
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
713 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
Much cooler air will overspread the region tonight and lead to the
development of some lake effect rain northeast of the lakes, which
will then wind down from southwest to northeast later Wednesday and
Wednesday evening as high pressure and drier air builds into the
region. Another cold front will then slowly sag across the region
Thursday and Friday while bringing some additional scattered
showers, with cool and mainly dry weather then following for the
first half of the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
An area of low pressure located over lake superior this evening was
pushing a cold front through central new york with a secondary
trough pushing into western new york. Widespread showers in
advance of both features. It won't be until the lake induced
instability forms and upstream moisture from the central and
western great lakes rotates towards the eastern great lakes
tonight that lake effect rain showers develop across lake erie.

The rainfall ahead of the frontal boundary and trough will
depart the tug hill region late tonight while the lake effect
forms across the buffalo metro.

Favorable lake effect conditions will continue into Wednesday
morning. A southwest flow of 30-40kts will also bring the lake
effect showers as far northeast as the rochester metro by Wednesday
morning. Rainfall amounts will be localized due to the nature of the
band and amounts of up to a quarter to half inch are possible within
the band. There will be some clearing outside of the lake effect
activity however southwest winds will average 10-15 mph through the
night hours. Low temperatures will reach the upper 30's across the
higher terrain to the low to mid 40's across the lake plains and
possibly the upper 40's under the influence of the lake band. Lake
effect will just be starting late tonight northeast of lake ontario.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday night
Lake induced rain showers will already be in place northeast of lake
erie as we open this period on Wednesday morning. A well aligned 240
flow of -1c h85 air will place a well defined band of steady rain
over the buffalo metro area with a 30-40kt cloud bearing flow
extending the activity northeast to the western suburbs of
rochester. A cap in the vcnty of 8kft and lack of background
synoptic deeper moisture and lift should keep the band from
producing significant rainfall amounts... Although the rain showers
could be moderately heavy at times during the first few hours of the
day. As the base of a shortwave trough passes east of our
region... Subtle warm advection during the afternoon will further
lower the limiting cap below 5kft. This should substantially weaken
the lake effect showers... Although the axis of the activity will
move very little as winds persist from the southwest.

Off lake ontario... The base of the aforementioned shortwave trough
will still be the west as the day begins. A moderately sheared
airmass within a general 240 flow will focus disorganized lake rain
showers near or immediately north of watertown... Although an upslope
flow will support scattered showers throughout much of the eastern
lake ontario region. Once the base of the mid level trough passes...

the lake response should become more pronounced across the northern
half of jefferson county and thousand islands region. Given the
'late' start and shorter fetch... Forecast rainfall amounts in this
region (as compared to lake erie's activity) should be significantly
less.

Outside of these two lake effect areas... Cold advection strato-cu
within the cyclonic flow during the early morning will thin out
during the course of the day as weak warm advection becomes
established. This will especially be the case across the southern
tier and finger lakes regions... Where partial sunshine may make an
appearance all day away from the influences of the additional lake
moisture. Temperatures in the low to mid 50s will be quite close to
where we should be for the later stages of october. However, gusty
southwest winds, reaching 30 to 35 mph at times especially from the
niagara frontier toward rochester and along the eastern shoreline of
lake ontario, will add a chill to the air.

Lake effect will end on Wednesday evening with continual warm air
advection, lowering inversions and anticyclonic flow as sfc ridge
expands from southeast CONUS to the mid atlantic states. Attention
later Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be on broad and
flat troughing sweeping across the great lakes. Weak sfc cold front
tied to the upper level trough will remain moisture starved as it
limps across our forecast area later Thursday. While it will
generate a fair amount of cloud cover... The paltry mid level
moisture and general lack of forcing continue to only warrant
slight to low chc pops, with best chances closer to lake ontario.

Looks like with gusty SW wind, though not as strong as what occurs
on Wednesday, temps on Thursday may be able to warm into the lower
60s, especially toward finger lakes.

Forecast confidence remains on the lower side later Thursday night
and Friday... As the various guidance packages continue to have
timing issues with the next shortwave trough moving in from the
nations mid section. Whether this trough is more amplified or
flatter has bearing on if showers impact mainly western ny or more
over the southern tier into eastern ny. Maintained continuity and
kept chc pops to avoid significant flip flopping. Temps on Friday
should reach around 50f or into the lower 50s. Behind this system
does appear we'll see a minor lake response off lake ontario with
wnw winds sfc-h85 and sufficient instability as h85 temps drop to
around 0c to -2c, leading to delta t S toward 13c with lake ontario
water temps of 52f (11c).

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Any limited lake response off lake ontario will end later Saturday
afternoon as surface high pressure and associated dry air move into
the eastern great lakes. Looks like another day with highs mainly
into the lower 50s, with upper 40s across higher terrain.

Medium range guidance continues to diverge Saturday night and
Sunday. The latest 12z 22 ECMWF and gem bring a substantial southern
stream system through the ohio valley and eastern great lakes
Saturday night into Sunday with the gem on the quicker side of the
two. Meanwhile, recent GFS runs keep this system more suppressed
over the southeast states and mid atlantic, only grazing our
southern and eastern forecast areas with any light qpf. Given the
consensus between the ECMWF and gem and recent pattern model trends,
have continued to increase pops for later Saturday night and Sunday.

If the surface low track ends up passing to our northwest such as
the ECMWF solution, it may turn fairly mild on Sunday despite the
clouds and showers.

Following this system weak high pressure will build into the ohio
valley and new england from Monday through Tuesday. The GFS is again
faster with the next trough coming into the great lakes, and again
appears too fast when compared to ECMWF gem solutions and ensemble
means. Given this, kept the Monday through Tuesday period dry and
turning gradually cooler.

Aviation 23z Tuesday through Sunday
A cold front will cross the region early tonight. Rainfall will
taper off from west to east through the evening hours while clouds
hang around the region. Lake effect rain showers are expected
east of lake erie in vicinity of kbuf to kroc after 04z. Lake
effect rain showers will develop near kart Wednesday morning and
continue through the afternoon. Low-endVFR high-end MVFR cigs
expected within the lake bands. Outside of lake bands,VFR
conditions expected. Gusty southwest winds expected Wednesday
with gusts around 30-35 kts from kbuf-kiag-kroc late morning-
early afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Thursday night and Friday... MVFRVFR with scattered showers.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
A round of stronger southwest winds will develop on lake erie and
western lake ontario this evening, then spread across the rest of
lake ontario during the course of Wednesday. This will result in
another round of advisory-worthy conditions that will last into
Wednesday night or Thursday, with the strongest winds and higher
waves persisting the longest at the eastern ends of both lakes.

Small craft headlines are outlined below.

Looking further out in time, winds and waves will steadily diminish
from later Thursday through the end of the week as the pressure
gradient slackens across the lower great lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 11 pm edt Wednesday for
lez020.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 2 am edt
Thursday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 11 pm edt Wednesday for
loz042.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for loz045.

Synopsis... Hsk jjr tma
near term... Hsk tma
short term... Jla rsh
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Hsk tma
marine... Hsk jjr tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 10 mi54 min 55°F1007.5 hPa (-1.1)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 45 mi54 min 55°F 59°F1008.4 hPa (-0.7)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi54 min SSE 8.9 G 15 56°F 1007.9 hPa (-0.7)55°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY16 mi2 hrsSSE 94.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist55°F52°F90%1007.9 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY23 mi2 hrsSSE 1410.00 miLight Rain53°F50°F91%1008.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E6E3CalmCalmSE5
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1 day agoE3E3E3CalmE3E4E3E4E4E4E4E4NE3CalmNE8NE10NE9E7E8NE10NE9NE4NE4E5
2 days agoE3E6NE4E3E4E4E4E4E5E4E3CalmCalmCalmS5S6S7SW76SW7SW5SW4CalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.