Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clayton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:39PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 9:22 AM EDT (13:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 11:07AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 422 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
Today..Light and variable winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog early.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Mainly clear.
Wednesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly Sunny.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy, then clearing.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clayton, NY
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location: 44.24, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231237
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
837 am edt Tue jul 23 2019

Synopsis
Sprawling high pressure over the northern plains will nose east
across the lower great lakes, while slowly drifting southeast to the
mid mississippi valley by Wednesday. This will result in mainly dry
weather across our region. Aside from a few isolated inland showers
each afternoon, expect plentiful sunshine and comfortable conditions
for through Wednesday. A warming trend can then be expected for the
second half of the week.

Near term through tonight
Ir satellite imagery shows the western edge of mid and upper level
cloud shield now over central ny and the eastern lake ontario
region. This will be completely east of our area by mid morning or
so. Meanwhile, a large area of high pressure over the northern
plains will nose east across the lower great lakes, while slowly
drifting southeast to the mid mississippi valley by Wednesday. This
will result in mainly dry weather across our region, as drier air
continues building southeast across the eastern great lakes. This
will continue to aid in clearing away any low clouds light fog
across the region by mid morning, leaving behind partly to mostly
sunny skies. There will be the chance for a few showers close to the
lake erie shoreline as cool air aloft and cyclonic flow, interact
with warmer lake water and what is left of an overnight land breeze
just offshore. Heading into the late morning afternoon, stable lake
shadows will develop with lake breeze boundaries pushing inland.

Diurnal heating and cool temps aloft will combine with cyclonic flow
aloft to create enough instability to produce a few isolated pop up
showers along and inland of any lake breezes. High temperatures
today will remain a touch below normal, mainly in the mid and upper
70s, with some lower 70s across the higher terrain.

Longwave trough axis and accompanying embedded shortwave moving
through the base of the trough, interacting with warmer waters of
the lakes may once again produce a few showers near the lakeshores
for the second half of tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions can be
expected. Overnight lows in the 50s will make for comfortable
sleeping weather.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
A weak mid level trough axis will slowly cross the eastern great
lakes Wednesday. This system will have little deep moisture to work
with, and very little in the way of low level features. Weak forcing
from dpva along with relatively cool mid level temperatures and
associated modest lapse rates may allow for a few isolated showers
to develop with the trough axis. These may occur on the lake plains
in the morning, but will then focus well inland from the lakes by
afternoon as stable lake shadows develop and spread inland. Coverage
will be very spotty, with most areas remaining dry. 850mb temps
around +10c will support highs in the mid to upper 70s at lower
elevations and lower 70s on the hills.

Any isolated showers will end Wednesday evening as the weak mid
level trough exits. This will leave mainly clear to partly cloudy
skies overnight. The airmass remains fairly cool, with lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s on the lake plains and some lower 50s in the
cooler southern tier valleys and lewis county.

A similar scenario will unfold Thursday as another weak mid level
trough axis embedded in northwest flow aloft crosses the eastern
great lakes. Weak forcing from this may support a few isolated
showers, with any showers focusing inland away from the lakes in the
afternoon as stable lake shadows develop. There may be enough
instability by afternoon to support an isolated thunderstorm as
well, but again the majority of the area will stay dry. Warm
advection will allow temperatures to move back to around average,
with lower 80s at lower elevations and mid to upper 70s for higher
terrain.

Any isolated showers will end Thursday evening, leaving dry weather
overnight. Ongoing weak warm advection and somewhat higher dewpoints
will keep temperatures a little warmer. Expect lows to range from
the mid 60s near the lakes to the mid 50s in the southern tier
valleys and lewis county.

Long term Friday through Monday
A typical mid summer pattern will take shape Friday through early
next week, with zonal flow confined mainly to along and north of the
canadian border, with a dominant upper level ridge across the
southern u.S. Extending into the ohio valley and mid atlantic. The
bulk of the more organized rain chances will stay north and west of
our region Friday through early next week in closer proximity to the
westerlies and better forcing. The vast majority of the time will be
rain free in our area, although a few isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms cannot be ruled out, mainly in the afternoon and
inland from the lakes. A southwest flow through the period will
likely produce sizable stable lake shadows that will reduce or
eliminate the chance for convection across most of the lake plains.

Temperatures will continue to creep upward with day to day warming
beneath the building ridge. Expect highs to reach the mid 80s at
lower elevations by Friday, and then mid to upper 80s at lower
elevations Saturday through early next week. Humidity will also
creep up with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s over the
weekend.

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
Isolated areas of MVFR ifr mist fog across the north-country,
including at kart kgtb will dissipate by mid morning. Some MVFR ifr
cigs also remain across the interior western southern tier. These
will also scatter out by mid morning. Otherwise, high pressure
centered over the nations mid section will help to keep fairVFR
conditions in place from mid morning through the end of the taf
period across western and north-central new york.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
While a weak surface pressure gradient will keep nearly ideal
conditions (generally light winds and negligible waves) in place for
recreational boating for the bulk of this week... There will be the
risk for waterspouts later tonight and early Wednesday morning.

The axis of a longwave trough will cross lake erie during the second
half of tonight. Several of the WV channels depict subtle shortwaves
within the trough. These features will move from the upper great
lakes to lake erie tonight... With the focus being on the western
half of the lake. NWS kcle is already highlighting the risk for
spouts on their end of the lake. The aforementioned synoptic pattern
will be accompanied by a favorable thermal profile... As h85 temps
in the vcnty of 10-11c and lake surface temps around 25c will
promote sufficient low level instability. As outlined by the
outstanding waterspout research from szilagyi (environ can)...

this instability combined with a convective depth of more than
15k ft is conducive for spout development. This will especially
be the case in a regime with light winds and possibly a land breeze
boundary for which to focus low level convergence. Will thus
add slight chc for spouts on lake erie from about 06 to 12z Wednesday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jm
near term... Jm
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Jm
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 10 mi52 min 72°F1011.7 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 45 mi58 min 67°F 67°F1011.8 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi52 min NNW 6 G 8 70°F 1012.1 hPa62°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY16 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair69°F61°F76%1011.8 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY23 mi86 minN 010.00 miFair62°F61°F98%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E5E5E4NE6NE6NE10E5NE6CalmNE5NE4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW9SW9W9SW11SW13SW15
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W11SW7SW7S7CalmS4S3SE4CalmCalmE4CalmNE4E5NE7NE6NE6
2 days agoSW6SW9SW10SW11
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SW9SW11W8SW8SW11SW9SW10SW9SW9SW8SW6SW9S5SW5SW7SW8SW6SW13SW8W12
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.