Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clayton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:40PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 11:59 AM EDT (15:59 UTC) Moonrise 7:35PMMoonset 6:11AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 454 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Today..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Mostly cloudy.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of rain showers after midnight. Rain showers late.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers likely in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow and rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Friday night.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain during the day, then rain likely Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clayton, NY
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location: 44.24, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 081514 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1114 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. A round of showers will arrive tonight into Thursday morning as a strong cold front plows through the region Thursday morning. This front will usher in a stretch of very chilly weather with snow showers for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The area will remain generally dry through the rest of the day, although there could be an isolated pop-up light shower during peak heating this afternoon. Clouds will give way to some breaks of sunshine this afternoon which will allow temperature to reach the 50s, though it will be cooler along the immediate shorelines of both Erie and Ontario as winds remain onshore.

Early this evening will be quiet as we await strong deep upper level trough and associated deepening sfc low and sharp cold front. This front and another smaller wave of low pressure lifting along it will force widespread showers after midnight through the rest of the night. At this point, looking at just showers and no thunder as area of higher elevated instability remains south of our forecast area. Winds ahead of front tonight don't look too strong, but expect gusts toward 40 mph to develop late tonight over western portions of the Niagara Frontier. Temps tonight will follow non-diurnal trend, but will be in the 40s most of the night at most locations.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A strong cold front will plow across our forecast area early Thursday morning . as a large deepening cyclone east of Georgian Bay make its way across the St Lawrence valley to the coast of Maine. This will be a rather complex storm system . as a very robust shortwave rounding the base of an already closed off mid level low will actually lead to a Miller B cyclogenetic event that will generate a powerful coastal storm for the maritimes. Strong cold advection in the wake of the transitioning system will be accompanied by a 40-45kt low level jet that . while probably not significant enough to warrant high wind warnings . could easily support strong enough winds to break some tree branches or produce other minor property damage. This will especially be the case across elevated terrain and for sites southeast of Lk Ontario where winds could gust to 50 mph. Mechanical mixing of the stronger winds from aloft to the sfc will be supported by both the aforementioned cold advection . and from partial clearing brought about by an influx of notably drier air in the mid levels. Will point out the strong winds in the HWO product . as wind advisories for at least part of the region will likely be needed in a later forecast package.

Other than the potentially problematic winds . widespread rain showers that will be concentrated in the vcnty of the passing early morning cold front will quickly taper off from west to east as the sfc boundary exits across the Adirondacks to New England. While the bulk of the midday and early afternoon should be pcpn free . the next slug of moisture is forecast to circulate back across Lake Erie as Thursday afternoon progresses. Another shortwave associated with this next round of moisture is expected to prompt another round of showers over the western counties where some wet snow will almost certainly mix in across the higher terrain. All of this will take place with temperatures that will gradually drop off during the afternoon . with much of the Srn Tier falling back into the 30s after experiencing morning highs in the mid 40s.

It will remain windy and unsettled across the region Thursday night . as a tight sfc pressure gradient and persistent 40-45kt low level jet within a cyclonic flow will be found over the Lower Great Lakes. Wind gusts of 40 mph or better will be common over the western counties (in vcnty of aforementioned LL Jet). The strong gusty conditions will be accompanied by some mixed rain and snow showers that will change to mainly just snow showers during the course of the night. While H85 temps of -6 to -8c will not support true lake induced convection . there will be some lake enhancement of the snow showers that will support some minor accumulations. Snowfall of an inch or two will be possible across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario . again mainly across the elevated terrain.

Friday will then promise to be the chilliest day of the past three weeks . as a stacked low centered just east of Maine will sustain a deep cyclonic flow over the Lower Great Lakes A moist. lake enhanced flow of -6 to -8c H85 air will keep fairly widespread rain and wet snow showers in place during the morning . then as a subtle shortwave ridge passes through and mid level moisture gets stripped away during the afternoon . the shower activity will taper off in areal coverage and general intensity. Max temperatures will be within a degree or so of 40 across the lake plains . and will not exit the mid 30s across the Srn Tier. These readings will be roughly 15 degrees below normal . and will be more typical of the first half of March Not to belabor the point. but the wind gusts that will STILL exceed 35 mph at times will exacerbate the chilly conditions with wind chills in the 20s and low 30s.

One last shortwave will pass over the region Friday night. This will help to support some more scattered rain and snow showers . with residual lake enhancement placing the most widespread snow shower activity southeast of Lake Ontario.

A flat mid level ridge will start to build across the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday. The ensuing warm advection will start to take the chill off the Canadian airmass . so that with the help of at least partial sunshine . temperatures will climb back into the mid 40s for most areas. These mercury readings will still be some 10 degrees below normal . but with noticeably lower winds and more sunshine . it should feel appreciably better.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Deteriorating conditions can be expected as we open this period . as a large and somewhat disorganized storm system will take aim on our region from the Lower Mississippi Valley. The developing southern stream cyclone will force a burgeoning mid level ridge to make its way across the Lower Great Lakes with the door being opened for GOMEX moisture to pour northwards. While the first half of the day should be rain free over our region . there will be at least the chance for some light rain during the afternoon. This will especially be the case over the Southern Tier. The silver lining to this scenario is that our stretch of chilly weather will come to an abrupt halt . as the mercury will soar to between 55 and 60 across the western counties As one would expect in this situation. it will be cooler across the North country with highs only in the low to mid 50s.

It will then become quite unsettled over the region Sunday night and Monday . as a deep sub 990mb low will advance from the Ohio Valley to southern Ontario. This is the climatologically favored track and one that is supported by the more trusted ECMWF Initially. this scenario would generate a soaking rain over the region Sunday night and Monday morning. The forcing for what could be a significant rainfall would be supplied by a 50-60 kt low level jet impinging upon an associated warm frontal boundary. As the deep sfc low passes to our west Monday afternoon . a strong cold frontal passage would then usher in a period of strong winds that would persist through Monday night.

Tuesday would then be characterized by gusty winds and much chillier conditions . as a deep cyclonic flow would once again set up across the region. This would be accompanied by some mixed rain and wet snow showers.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Some lingering IFR cigs at KBUF, KROC, and KJHW will improve through this afternoon as clouds lift and scatter out. All sites will be VFR by mid to late afternoon. A period of mainly MVFR conditions (lowering to LIFR at KJHW) is expected to develop after midnight tonight as a strong cold front and widespread showers sweep across western NY.

Outlook .

Thursday . VFR/MVFR with showers likely. Westerly winds gusting to 35 knots. Friday . VFR/MVFR with rain/snow showers likely. Saturday and Sunday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. While generally light winds will remain in place on Lake Ontario today. Southwest winds will freshen on Lake Erie leading to some choppy conditions during the afternoon and evening, but small craft advisories should not be needed.

Conditions will remain below small craft advisory criteria tonight, but in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage Thursday morning. winds will quickly strengthen. The strong westerly winds will require high end small craft advisories that will be in effect through at least Friday evening. In fact, winds will approach gale force intensity on Lake Ontario.

Winds and waves will then notably subside late Friday night and Saturday, as high pressure will work its way across the Lower Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Westerly winds increasing to 30 knots with higher gusts across Lake Ontario late Thursday into Friday will result in significant wave action developing on the east end of Lake Ontario. The wave action combined with high water levels will result in some lakeshore flooding and some erosion along the immediate Lake Ontario shore Thursday night into Friday. A lakeshore flood warning has been issued for Jefferson through Wayne counties.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for NYZ004>007. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . JLA/TMA NEAR TERM . JLA/TMA SHORT TERM . RSH LONG TERM . RSH AVIATION . Apffel/JLA/TMA MARINE . RSH/TMA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . JLA/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 10 mi65 min 1003.4 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 45 mi65 min 40°F 1003.6 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi59 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 45°F 1003.5 hPa (+0.5)37°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY16 mi2.1 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast48°F37°F68%1002.7 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY23 mi63 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast49°F36°F62%1002.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W10W8SW6W4W4W4CalmCalmN3E5SW3E3CalmNE5E6SE4N5NE5N5E4N4CalmCalm
1 day ago--W12W11
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SW14SW13SW11S4SW4SW8W10SW9W4SW3SW7SW6CalmSE3SE3CalmNW6W3W7
2 days agoW7SW11SW13
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SW10SW10SW12SW8SW7S5CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.