Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clayton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:50PM Monday July 6, 2020 6:04 AM EDT (10:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:21PMMoonset 5:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1029 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Overnight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Sunny.
Monday night..Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear.
Friday..South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clayton, NY
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location: 44.24, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 060802 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 402 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. Heat and humidity will build through the rest of the week, peaking on Thursday and Friday. The majority of the time will be dry, although a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening mainly well inland from the lakes. A weak cold front will arrive Saturday and bring a better chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, and will also bring somewhat cooler temperatures to the region by Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. IR satellite imagery showing an area of mid level clouds moving southeast across Lake Ontario to points southeast of Lake Ontario. This area of clouds will continue through early morning before thinning. Some patchy fog has developed across the North Country in areas which received rain last evening. Some patchy fog may also develop across the river valleys of the western Southern Tier. The fog will dissipate by around 8AM.

A northwest flow aloft will remain in place today around the periphery of the expansive ridge across the midwest. A subtle mid level shortwave will drift through the northwest flow aloft, crossing the Southern Tier and PA this afternoon. Associated weak forcing and somewhat better mid level lapse rates will interact with diurnal instability to support a few scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the Southern Tier. Latest high- res CAMS guidance continues to suggest the greatest chance of convection will be found across Cattaraugus and Allegany counties for a few hours this afternoon. A weak stalled frontal zone will also be found across the eastern Lake Ontario region, and high-res guidance also suggests this may support an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the southern Tug Hill region this afternoon.

Otherwise the rest of the area will remain dry and mostly sunny today. Highs will again reach the lower 90s from the Niagara Frontier eastward down the Thruway corridor, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Dewpoints begin to creep up a little today into the lower 60s, but still not high enough to generate any appreciable heat index. An ENE breeze will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario a little cooler.

Any convection across the Southern Tier will end this evening as the weak shortwave moves away and the boundary layer stabilizes towards sunset. This will leave partly cloudy to mainly clear skies and dry weather overnight. A gradual increase in low level moisture combined with radiational cooling will allow river valley fog to develop across the Southern Tier late tonight through early Tuesday morning. Lows will drop into the 65-70 degree range on the lake plains, and around 60 for the cooler Southern Tier valleys and North Country.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. The strong and dominant ridge over the midwest will build a little farther northeast into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday. Associated mid level subsidence and poor lapse rates will keep convective potential muted. Weak southwest flow will allow stable lake shadows to develop northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario with dry weather prevailing. A few widely scattered afternoon storms may develop from the western Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and Tug Hill region away from the stable lake shadows, but even here the potential looks quite low.

A weak trough will then cross the region later Tuesday night through Wednesday. Forcing in general will be very weak with this feature, although there may be a few corridors of stronger DPVA associated with convectively enhanced vorticity maxima evolving from earlier upstream storms. This trough will bring a low chance of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday night through the first half of Wednesday, with the best chances being found across the North Country and also the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes. Stable lake shadows will develop by Wednesday afternoon northeast of the lakes, bringing a return to dry weather. A few more diurnal showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon from the western Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario, but the better coverage of rain will be southeast of our region. Any lingering showers and storms will end Wednesday evening, with dry weather prevailing overnight.

Heat will continue Tuesday and Wednesday with highs likely in the lower 90s on the lake plains away from the immediate lakeshores and in the valleys of the western Finger Lakes. Dewpoints will continue to slowly rise, and will reach the point of producing a higher heat index by Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect a heat index in the mid 90s both Tuesday and Wednesday in the lower elevation lake plain counties, and around 90 for the higher terrain and North Country. With this in mind, we will move forward with a long duration Heat Advisory starting Tuesday afternoon and running right through Friday evening to cover the duration of this heat wave.

Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be in the lower 70s on the lake plains and mid 60s across the Southern Tier valleys and North Country.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. . Extended period of High Heat continues through the work week .

A broad upper level ridge of high pressure will remain across the eastern two-thirds of the United States throughout much of the period. Notably with this prominent upper level feature, heat and humidity will be the main players throughout the extended portion of the forecast.

Highs through the remainder of the work week will climb into the low to mid 90s in the lower elevations, while the higher elevations will see high temperatures in the upper 80s. Model guidance has been in agreement that the region may see 850mb temperatures of 19-21 degrees C which may lead to a few mid to upper 90F readings in the typically warmer locations of our forecast area Thursday and Friday. While the temperatures will soar, the humidity will also be on the increase. Dewpoint temperatures will continue to climb throughout the week, which will allow for the places in the lower terrain to see heat indices range from mid 90s to the possible 100.

The majority of this period will be rain free with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening forming inland along lake breeze boundaries.

A cold front is forecast to cross the region on Saturday which will provide showers and somewhat cooler, albeit still above normal, temperatures and less humid conditions for the weekend. A sharpening shortwave trough and secondary cold front may lead to a few more showers and storms on Sunday.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A few patches of mid/high clouds will drift across the region through this morning, especially over and southeast of Lake Ontario. Some patchy fog has developed across the North Country where rain fell last evening, including KART. This will continue to produce local IFR conditions through about 10Z. Some patchy fog may also develop across the river valleys of the western Southern Tier with local IFR.

A weak mid level shortwave will produce a few scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the western Southern Tier mainly east of KJHW with local/brief MVFR to IFR conditions. A spotty thunderstorm is also possible this afternoon across the southern Tug Hill region near a weak stalled frontal zone. Otherwise dry weather and VFR will prevail today.

Any scattered showers and storms will end this evening, with dry weather overnight. Some river valley fog will likely develop across the Southern Tier with local IFR overnight.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Friday . Mainly VFR. Widely scattered showers and storms each afternoon mainly inland from the lakes with local/brief flight restrictions. Late night/early morning Southern Tier Valley fog with local IFR.

MARINE. A weak pressure gradient will maintain light winds and negligible waves through tonight. A period of ENE winds in the 12-14 knot range will develop today on Lake Ontario, bringing choppy conditions to the west half of the lake. Winds are expected to remain lighter on Lake Erie.

Relatively light winds will then return to both lakes Tuesday through Friday with negligible wave action.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Heat Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Levan AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 10 mi47 min 1016.6 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 45 mi53 min 65°F 65°F1016.9 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi47 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 1015.8 hPa62°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY16 mi69 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist60°F59°F96%1015.6 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY23 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair63°F60°F91%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3SE4S4W5W11W11W9W11W9W9
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SW11SW6SW7SW5S5CalmCalmE3E3CalmE3CalmE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3NE6NE9NE8NE8
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N9NE4N8NW8W8W7W9W4E5CalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmE4SE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm43NW3N8N86
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NE9NE7NE8NE5W4CalmS5S3SE3CalmCalmSE4SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.