Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clayton, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A warm front will cross the area today, with the strongest lift remaining well north and northwest of the area
Even so
the front may still produce a brief shower or some sprinkles as it crosses but the vast majority of the time should be precipitation free
Although
some CAMs do show additional chances for showers between 18Z-21Z as a shortwave quickly races east. This feature can be found over Iowa/Wisconsin early this morning. Will need to keep an eye on that feature this afternoon
Otherwise
much of the area will find itself in the warm sector by this afternoon and breezy with gusts up to 35 mph. We will also see temps climb well into the 60s to low/mid 70s. We even could see a few mercury readings in the upper 70s across the Genesee Valley.

Tonight...a good chuck of the night will'likely' remain precipitation free ahead of the cold front. As the front nears late, we will see a better chance for showers, even a rumble of thunder can't be ruled out. The cold front will slowly work its way southeast through the Lower Lakes on Saturday. While not a complete washout, it will take time for the front to clear the region. It will turn cooler behind the cold front but not as 'cold' as we saw this week
Infact
we will see temps peak in the 60s, to low/mid 70s across the Finger Lakes region before the cooler air arrives.
Additionally...it will become quite windy Saturday, we even could see winds gusting up to 40 mph in some locations.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Saturday evening, a surface cold front will be in the process of moving south across the area. The associated strong mid level trough will be displaced north of the area across Quebec, leaving a weakly forced cold front sinking south into PA overnight. Lingering showers across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes in the evening will end overnight, with partial clearing as drier air gradually filters into the eastern Great Lakes.

Surface high pressure will build from the upper Great Lakes Sunday morning to the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon, bringing a dry second half to the weekend with a return of some sunshine. A cooler airmass will bring highs back to at or slightly below average.

Sunday night, high pressure will drift east across New England. Warm advection will increase overnight as a strong trough moves east through the midsection of the nation, with increasing mid/high clouds from southwest to northeast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A well defined mid level closed low will move from the upper Mississippi Valley Monday morning to the upper Great Lakes Monday evening, before reaching western Quebec and weakening by Tuesday. A surface low will take a similar track, reaching northern lower Michigan late Monday, then southern Quebec by Tuesday. Mid level height falls and DPVA ahead of the trough will graze the eastern Great Lakes Monday with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. A warm front and associated isentropic upglide will cross the region Monday, quickly followed by the cold front Monday night. Forcing and moisture will be sufficient to produce the likelihood of a few showers Monday through Monday night. There may be just enough instability to support a low chance of thunder, mainly across Western NY Monday afternoon and evening.

Tuesday, the weakening mid level trough and surface low will linger across southern Quebec. Cyclonic flow and some lingering moisture may produce a few more scattered showers east of Lake Ontario, with mainly dry weather returning elsewhere.

Wednesday through Thursday, surface high pressure will generally be in control across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. A diffuse east/west thermal gradient and a few weak mid level shortwaves may support a low chance of a shower or two, but in general the middle of next week will be mainly dry with above average temperatures.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A warm front will pass through the region today, and this may produce a brief shower or sprinkles as it passes. While confidence remains low, we may see a few additional showers this afternoon (18Z- 21Z) associated with a shortwave quickly racing east. It will also become quite breezy by this afternoon, with southerly wind gusts up to 30 knots.

Otherwise....VFR will dominate area terminals today.

The cold front will near the region late tonight into Saturday with increasing chances of showers, even a rumble of thunder can't be ruled out. Have also added LLWS at KIAG, KBUF, and KJHW. Guidance shows a 60 knot LLJ racing in ahead of the front and sfc winds falling off after 00Z.

Outlook...
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers and a chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Monday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Southerly winds pick up behind a warm front today, but will direct the highest waves into Canadian waters. Winds then shift to the southwest tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. Small craft headlines will likely be needed again for some of the waters late through the day Saturday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041.