Sunday, February28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clayton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:52PM Sunday February 28, 2021 10:51 PM EST (03:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:36PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 650 Am Est Fri Jan 1 2021
Today..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly Sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Snow through the early overnight, then snow, rain and freezing rain late.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Snow and freezing rain in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday..East winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of snow.
Monday..North winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..West winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clayton, NY
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location: 44.24, -76.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 010235 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 935 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will generate some rain showers across the region tonight, but more importantly it will introduce a notably colder airmass back into the area. In fact, high temperatures Monday should occur in the morning with the mercury falling for the afternoon through Monday night. The colder air will support scattered snow showers with light accumulations, but a few of the snow showers may produce greatly reduced visibility with gusty winds Monday afternoon and evening.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Showers along the warm front east of Lake Ontario have tapered off to just a few sprinkles and light showers across Lewis County. These will end completely by late evening. A few light showers are starting to develop over the northeast end of Lake Erie, and some of these will move into Western NY by late evening. A cold front will push through the region overnight. This will result in a another round of rain showers from late evening through the early overnight across Western NY, and overnight through early Monday morning across the eastern Lake Ontario region.

It will be windy on Monday with generally falling temperatures. Winds will strengthen to advisory criteria southeast of Lake Ontario in the afternoon and evening, with gusts to around 50 mph in most locations. The strongest gusts will likely occur during the early evening when the strongest winds aloft cross Lake Ontario. A few gusts up to 55 mph are possible along the immediate lakeshore.

While the bulk of the day will be dry . the deepening cold air will start to support lake snow showers southeast of the lakes by mid afternoon More importantly. snow showers and squalls ahead of a secondary cold front will be found across the forecast area after 21z (4 PM). These could be heavy enough to have locally significant impacts to the evening commute.

Expansive high pressure over the Upper Mississippi valley Monday evening will drift east to the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes during the course of Monday night. This will aid in directing very cold air into our region with H85 temps falling to -22c. The cold sub arctic air will encourage some nuisance lake effect snow on a 310-320 flow.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Strong surface ridge dives SE across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Tuesday and then heads towards the Mid-Atlantic states. Cold incoming airmass with H850T falling to -18C/-20C briefly, but strong subsidence and a lack of moisture limit any potential lake effect snows SE of the lakes. Otherwise, a chilly day is on tap for Tuesday with highs in the upper 20s across the majority of the region, and areas across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario not making it out of the teens. Tuesday night, the front-right quadrant of a 50kt LLJ passes overhead and allows temperatures to slowly rise through the second half of the night. An associated weak clipper system will also pass to the northeast overnight, which may sink just far enough south enough to bring a few flakes to parts of the North Country.

Dry weather along with a brief warmup Wednesday as a warm front slides by to the north of the area. Highs will range from the mid to upper 30s across the higher terrain to the low and mid 40s elsewhere. Temperatures begin to fall shortly after sundown as colder air begins filtering in on a northwesterly flow. Cooling 850mb temperatures will slowly raise lake effect chances southeast of the lakes through the night. Upslope flow may also trigger some light snow up on the Tug Hill overnight Wednesday as surface temperatures fall into the mid to low 20s, slightly warmer south of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Temperatures trending below normal during this period with chances for snow showers.

The amplification of an upper ridge over the Intermountain West and downstream blocking over Iceland will force the development of a deep trough over eastern third of the CONUS. There will also be several shortwaves and associated surface cold fronts/troughs bringing reinforcing shots of colder air which may extend into the following work week. With each shortwave, there will also be some snow showers that develop across the region. The best shot appears to be Saturday, this is when moisture increasing across the region.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Local IFR CIGS will continue across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier this evening. Otherwise the rest of the area will be mainly VFR. A few showers ahead of a warm front will continue across the eastern Lake Ontario region this evening with mainly VFR VSBY. Another round of showers will enter Western NY during the late evening and early overnight as a cold front moves into the region, with these showers reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region later tonight. CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR along and behind the cold front, with IFR favored across higher terrain and also east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

The rain showers will end from west to east late tonight and Monday morning. MVFR CIGS will continue in the morning, with some local IFR across higher terrain. A secondary cold front and increasing lake effect potential will bring increasing coverage of snow showers and a few snow squalls Monday afternoon and evening, which will produce brief/local IFR/LIFR conditions. Winds will become gusty in the afternoon and evening, with gusts of 30-35 knots areawide and 40-45 knots to the southeast of Lake Ontario.

Outlook .

Monday Night . Local IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes. Windy. Tuesday . Mainly VFR. Wednesday . VFR. Thursday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers. Friday . Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers.

MARINE. Southerly winds will increase into this evening in the wake of a warm front, then become southwest and increase further tonight behind a cold front. This has prompted small craft headlines.

A secondary cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday afternoon. Winds will become west-northwest behind this cold front and increase further, producing a period of gales on Lake Ontario later Monday afternoon and evening. Sustained winds will peak at or a little over 40 knots on the east half of the lake.

HYDROLOGY. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the potential for ice jams on the Buffalo Creeks in Erie County through early Monday afternoon. The combination of higher temperatures and some light rain will break up some of the ice on some of the Buffalo Creeks and this may result in ice jams. Overall, the risk of flooding is low but non-zero.

The flood risk is purely due to ice jams, with QPF from the rain nominal, totaling only a tenth of an inch or less. However, there's still 2-4 inches of snow water equivalent in the headwaters, and the ice on the creeks is thick enough (greater than 3 inches) to support ice jams in many spots. Also noted that the Gardenville and Lancaster gauges on Buffalo and Cayuga Creeks are already showing that ice has started to break up from the light rain and warmer weather yesterday. Thawing degree hours for today come in slightly below the 300 benchmark (about 250-275) but given that creeks are already breaking up suspect that this will be enough to result in more ice break up following the warm up today.

Fortunately, without much rainfall the flows on the Buffalo Creeks will not be that high which will lower the risk for rapid rises associated with flash flooding. However, with ice break up, there's certainly a risk for ice jams and these can occur at any location resulting in flooding. It's difficult to forecast ice jam location, but ice jams typically develop in similar spots year after year. The greatest risk for jams to develop will be this evening and overnight since it takes about 6 hours for most creeks to respond to the run-off from snow melt due to warm temperatures this afternoon.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ002>006. Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NYZ010-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Gale Warning from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045-062>065. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/RSH NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/RSH SHORT TERM . PP LONG TERM . AR/JM AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock HYDROLOGY . Apffel/Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 10 mi51 min 33°F1006.7 hPa (-3.3)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 45 mi51 min 42°F 1006.7 hPa (-4.3)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi51 min SSE 12 G 18 40°F 1007.1 hPa (-3.9)33°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY16 mi55 minS 10 G 1910.00 miOvercast43°F33°F68%1007 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY23 mi55 minS 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast39°F31°F72%1007.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW4S3CalmS3CalmS3CalmE4E5CalmCalmSW4E3E6E7SE9
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1 day agoE5SE6S8S8S9
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SW7SW10SW6SW5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmNE3E4CalmCalm4SW10W12W8W6CalmE4CalmE4E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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