Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM Moonrise 2:19 PM   Moonset 2:47 AM

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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots veering southwest toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Patchy fog overnight. Waves around 1 foot. Friday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Patchy dense fog. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Northwest winds around 5 knots veering southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves less than 1 foot. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots veering southwest 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots veering north late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 170708 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 308 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible early this morning and again this afternoon

- Periodic rain/storm chances this weekend, esp Saturday night into Sunday

- Fire Weather Concerns Sunday?

- Warm and possibly wet early next week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level troughing remains situated overhead early this morning with an attendant area of surface low pressure centered north of Lake Superior. Warm front currently crossing northern lower followed closely by an occluded/cold front beginning to make headway over northern Lake Michigan as of 06z.
This system continues to trek east through the day today, with that cold front largely stalling over eastern sections of the forecast area this afternoon before washing out. More zonal flow and higher surface pressure expected tonight.

Forecast Details: Most numerous shower and embedded storm activity at this early hour is situated over eastern upper Michigan with more isolated activity over trekking east near the US-131 corridor. A general eastward trend anticipated through the pre- dawn hours. Drier air is expected to filter into western sections of the forecast area today, but with moisture pooling over eastern areas ahead of the aforementioned stalling frontal boundary. Given increasing sun expected today after some morning low clouds/fog, we should become increasingly unstable as the day goes on with latest hi-res trends supporting upwards of 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE in place by early afternoon (highest east of I-75). Given that stalled/washing out boundary and expected lake breeze development, renewed chances for isolated to scattered shower/storm development this afternoon remains feasible, especially over northeast lower. Suppose a stronger storm with small hail and locally gusty winds can't be ruled out with bulk shear values approaching 30 kts, but severe storms aren't anticipated. High temps today ranging through the 70s across inland northern lower. Primarily 60s nearest the coasts and north of the bridge.

Any lingering low chances for precip wane this evening with skies trending towards mainly clear overnight. Patchy to areas of fog seem like a pretty good bet to develop around and after midnight...
perhaps becoming locally dense in spots. Lows ranging from the mid- 40s to the low 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Negatively tilted shortwave trough axis lifting through the region attm, with occluded low centered over the Arrowhead of MN around 0z/3z
Triple point over eastern WI/western Lake MI
with a cold front extending from here down into KS/OK along a positively tilted trough axis; much more convective activity down here near the Gulf Coast with a surface system and much better moisture/instability.
Still...a little instability noted on the 0z/17 sounding for APX (better instability upstream over GRB's area)...and with some forcing and moisture, do see a nice bit of convective activity cropping up over northern Lake MI near and along our coast as of 4z.

Trough axis swings out today...with ridging building in for tonight and Saturday...as southern stream system passes by well to our south. Next item of interest is vort max and attendant sub-1000mb surface low spinning over the northern Plains/southern Canadian Prairies Saturday...though indications attm keep the bulk of the activity to our northwest...with an attendant surface front washing out over the region Saturday night into Sunday as it plows into definitive ridging overhead. Think we will be under high pressure overall Sunday, though with the weak boundary still in the vicinity...may be something to keep an eye on as we heat up in the afternoon. Upstream warm advection pattern begins to take over Sunday night into Monday...with a round of rain/storms expected to slip through the Upper Midwest Monday into Monday night...though it remains unclear exactly how this will evolve...and how directly it will impact Northern Michigan
Either way
do think it has potential to dangle a boundary into the region Tuesday as upstream system develops...which could certainly keep the activity going right on into midweek...as signals point toward a decent surface low trying to spin up over the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night.
While there is some uncertainty in how this, too, evolves...which puts into question how cool it will end up over the region for mid- late week next week, depending on how deep the troughing is and how progressive it is (deeper and less progressive is more likely to bring cooler and wetter weather for us) ...think the general idea does trend cooler with perhaps a little stronger northwesterly flow toward the end of the period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Periodic rain/storm chances this weekend, esp Saturday night into Sunday...Think most of Saturday should be relatively quiet, though will expect rain/storms to slide across our northwest starting late afternoon and lasting into the night. Primary focus should be across the EUP, closer to the better forcing with the PV maxima swinging through. Sunday, however, may be a little more interesting. Guidance isn't 100 percent clear yet on how quickly the front will move through...and even the quicker models suggest there could be a shot at convection across our southeast, near Saginaw Bay, as the front kind of stalls/lingers, aided by lake breeze development, and diurnal heating ramps up dramatically. A slower solution would increase the likelihood of afternoon showers and storms over northeast Lower MI...which right now is somewhat low (20-30 percent chance). Given good signals for instability, however, and a potential lifting mechanism in the area with that front (which could act a bit like a dryline, for what it's worth
see below
) that could help break the cap (outside of whatever diurnal heating is able to accomplish)...will be on the lookout for storms with this, which could put a damper on what would be an otherwise summer-like Sunday.

Fire Weather Concerns Sunday?...Ironically, the uncertainty with the front Sunday also throws the potential for critical RHs for fire weather concerns into the mix...as the more progressive guidance suggests we may tap into a very dry air mass Sunday afternoon in the wake of the front (which may be less of a thermal front and almost more like a dryline of sorts)...with highs reaching into lower 80s.
Wouldn't be impossible that we could end up with some fire weather concerns over the western/northwestern half of the CWA while the eastern half looks at potential for thunder. Moisture with this isn't overly impressive, though...which could be problematic from the lightning standpoint for fire weather concerns...and will need to keep an eye on this, too. Fortunately winds don't look very strong Sunday, even through the first 5kft AGL, though if we mix as deeply as some guidance suggests...won't be impossible that we touch the 15mph wind criteria as well.

Warm and possibly wet early next week...After the weekend uncertainty...will be looking for a warmer and more active idea to overtake the Upper Midwest, as southwesterly flow increases ahead of that system developing over the Plains. Deep moisture with this could be on the high end of climo (pwats greater than 1in, perhaps approaching 1.5in?)...which, in the presence of good synoptic forcing and a stalled boundary, signals heavy rain potential for the first half of the upcoming week....particularly if this ends up being in a couple waves of better rain and/or a prolonged event. A lot of details yet to be sorted out, and to be honest, I won't be surprised if the greatest rainfall totals end up remaining to our southwest, noting that the strongest part of the ridge axis may remain to our southwest...but will definitely be keeping an eye on this, as it's close enough to us to warrant watching, particularly if a larger scale boundary ends up stalling out in our vicinity to focus rainfall over a particular area
Additionally
if the rain ends up stalling out over us, won't be out of the question the current forecast highs for next week may end up too warm.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will impact Northern Michigan overnight into Friday as a weak cold front slowly pushes thru our state. Prevailing VFR conditions will drop to MVFR/possibly IFR within any heaver showers/storms that develop. Prevailing conditions will drop to MVFR later tonight into Friday morning as low level moisture continues to gradually increase. Surface winds will remain southerly AOB 10 kts overnight into Friday morning...shifting to the NW Friday afternoon in the wake of the cold front.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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