Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 3:04 AM   Moonset 1:11 PM

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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Early this morning - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Today - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers until midday, then rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots veering south 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday - West winds 5 to 15 knots veering north late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 knots backing north. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering south, then veering north late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ800
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FXUS63 KAPX 020735 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 335 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers/few thunderstorms tonight and Friday.

- Smaller chances for precip this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Synopsis/pattern: Surface high pressure extends from western Lk Superior to southern lower MI. This high slides off to the east late today and tonight, allowing low pressure in s central Canada to push another cold/occluded front toward the area.

Forecast: After a (mostly) quiet day today, another round of showers/storms is expected tonight.

Low clouds and fog are common from the Straits area northward.
DZ has been reported at both CIU and Soo Canada early this morning, and will add that to the grids thru mid-morning. Mid and high clouds ahead of our next system will push back into nw lower MI by late morning, and expand east thru the afternoon.
Generally on the cloudy side in the north, while the se third of the forecast will see the most sun. But, with a developing se surface breeze, they will be kept cool by an onshore breeze from Lk Huron and Saginaw Bay.

A warm front lifts into southern WI and far sw lower MI this afternoon. MlCape values of up to 500j/kg will be seen, upstream of our area. Convection could be kicked off upstream, and start to make inroads into western sections late today. A small chance for showers late this afternoon/early this evening, west of I-75 in both peninsulas. Perhaps nw lower MI sees a rumble of thunder.

Max temps from the mid 50s (near Lk Huron) to upper 60s/near 70f (MBL-TVC-CAD).

500mb ridging shifts east to the eastern lakes, with height falls and a speed max entering northern WI/upper MI/Superior.
Increasing low-level southerly flow/moist advection ahead of the occluded front will contribute to precip developing tonight.
MuCape values of 500-750j/kg may scrape by southern portions of the forecast area. Likely to categorical showers and a few t-storms are forecast to expand w to e, with parts of ne lower MI remaining in just chancy pops thru the night. Best shear remains upstream tonight (behind the occluded front), and progged shear/instability does not appear to conducive to svr storms. Small hail may be a possibility with any stronger t-storms.

Min temps low 40s near Lk Huron to low 50s nw lower MI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

An area of low pressure located northwest of the Great Lakes Region, will influence sensible weather for most of the long term. As the low pressure and associated trough swing north of the region, a myriad of boundaries will be brought near and through northern Michigan late this week. By the beginning of next week, height rises will lead to quieter weather before another low pressure works its way into the region by mid-week.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Chances of precipitation and possible thunderstorms this weekend: A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and possible thunderstorms for Friday. A general tenth of an inch of rain can be expected for most areas, but it cannot be ruled out that some may receive more if convective thunderstorms develop overhead. More energy moves over the region for Saturday into Sunday, bringing another quick shot of light precipitation to the area with embedded thunderstorms possible. As heights rise going into the new week, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold for the first half of the work week. However, by mid-week, guidance is hinting at active weather returning to the region, so be sure to check back with the forecast as we continue to fine tune these details!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
MVFR cloud deck expected to impact much of northern Michigan early this morning, with even IFR conditions expected at KCIU with low cigs and some fog/mist. Any low clouds will mix out later this morning, leaving behind a mid and upper level cloud deck. Expect clouds to lower/thicken later today, with light rain likely spreading west to east into the area this evening.
No significant wind concerns through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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