Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:51PM Thursday August 13, 2020 9:31 PM EDT (01:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:21AMMoonset 3:44PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Through early evening..North winds around 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots veering southeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots veering southwest. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ849 Expires:202008140800;;401615 FZUS53 KGRR 132006 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-140800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 140125 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 925 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 924 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Earlier deep convection between mbL and CAD, which did produce a couple of lightning strikes, has faded entirely. Mid-level virga returns to the north have also diminished, as the compact vort max/MCV starts drifting south into lower MI. We are generally seeing cloud cover thin out; obviously diurnal cu is waning, but mid/high clouds have also diminished (especially south of M-68). A mostly clear to partly cloudy night is expected, with partial cloud cover tending to shift south into northern lower MI with time.

Min temps weren't changed too much, but in some spots were lowered a touch, especially in eastern upper MI. Thinning cloud cover should aid radiational cooling, but will also contribute to some patchy fog.

UPDATE Issued at 556 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

An area of congested cu in sw portions of the forecast area has bubbled up into some showers. Have added sct showers in eastern Manistee Co and adjoining parts of nearby counties. These should fade out entirely by 8-9 pm. Note that these are entirely separate from the virga/wanna-be sprinkles in eastern upper MI.

NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

. Quiet weather continues .

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Surface high pressure remains across the Great Lakes although weakening some as high pressure center over James Bay becomes dominant. Aloft, sharpening short-wave ridging extends through the Upper Midwest into Ontario. Convectively induced short-wave trough (MCV) is very slowly making it's way through the western Great Lakes driving a good amount of mid/high cloud cover through the region. Earlier spotty showers on radar have mostly ended. Still some returns moving through parts of NW Lower Michigan and the E UP. Mostly virga. given dry air below roughly 15K feet. But, we did get a FB report of sprinkles in the Soo around 120 PM.

Further west, stronger southerly return flow of moisture/ instabilty remains contained up through the Midwest into the northern Plains. Earlier convection along the eastern fringe of the instability gradient in central Wisconsin has also dwindled, but with some additional high cloud cover heading this way. Moisture/instability axis will remain bottled up to our west for at least the next few days with no risk for convection here.

Primary Forecast Concerns: None of consequence. MCV will make very slow progress through the region tonight through Friday, stalling over northern Lower Michigan Friday while some semblance of a blocking pattern develops across the region. Remaining spotty showers/elevated radar returns should fade away over the next few to several hours. But, sct-bkn mid and high cloud cover remains across the region into tonight before slowly thinning out late tonight into Friday.

Meanwhile, with easterly flow off Lake Huron overtop a cooling inland boundary layer, we could see a touch of marine induced stratus/fog develop along the Huron coast later tonight.

Otherwise, relatively mild temperatures anticipated for tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Warm again for Friday with highs spanning the 80s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunder possible Saturday afternoon/evening and again Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging continues to dominate northern Michigan's weather through at least Saturday afternoon. This ridge of high pressure begins a push eastward and allows a weak cold front associated with an area of low pressure over Canada to begin an approach into the Great Lakes region Saturday evening and provides the next chances for some rain showers . beginning in eastern upper and progressing to the east and southward through the night. Thunder will be possible late Saturday during the overnight hours and through Sunday evening. Don't expect any severe storms at this time due to weak shear (forecast to be 25kts or below) and weak instability, although SPC has a marginal threat over the CWA with the Day 3 Outlook. Will reevaluate again during the overnight hours and again tomorrow. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid 80s and a bit more humid Saturday with southerly flow advecting low level moisture into the forecast area. Nighttime lows will be in the mid 50s to near 60. Winds will continue to be light out of the south to southwest under high pressure through Saturday night . until the aforementioned cold front passes Sunday, then the winds will veer to northwesterly.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: None

Longwave troughing will encompass the area from Hudson Bay down into the Great Lakes to start Monday as ridging takes hold of the CONUS west of the Mississippi River. At the surface, high pressure builds across the north-central CONUS underneath subsidence aloft provided at the ridge-trough inflection point. With low-level moisture wiped from the area prior to the start of the period and sinking air overhead, rain chances will be muted through at least the first half of next week. This will bring a beautiful, cooler start to the work week as highs will drop down close to 70 across northern Michigan with plentiful sunshine. Overnight lows could drop down into the low to mid 40s early next week as well. Weak northeasterly winds through the first half of the week will keep moisture return and warmer temps at bay heading towards the weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 741 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

VFR.

Sct showers/TSRA popped up late in the afternoon, east of mbL and south of TVC. These are quickly fading away, as is our diurnal cu field. Plenty of mid and high clouds still linger, but these will thin out tonight as an upper level disturbance exits the area. Mainly VFR conditions expected, though would not totally preclude a touch of thin ground fog late tonight.

Light, mainly easterly winds.

MARINE. Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Light winds/waves will persist across the region through tonight. East to southeast winds increase a bit for Friday into Friday night with some gustiness into the teens. But still below small craft criteria.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi52 min W 1 G 2.9 75°F 1019.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi52 min N 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 1019.6 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi50 min 77°F
45024 24 mi22 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 72°F 73°F1 ft1018.8 hPa70°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi36 minWSW 310.00 miFair73°F66°F81%1018.2 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair72°F65°F82%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE5SW33NW8W7NW8NW9NW6NW4NW4W3
1 day agoCalmCalmE3E3E4E3E4E3E3E4E3CalmSW3SW4CalmW6W11W10W10W9W7W6NW4Calm
2 days ago3N4NW4NW5NW4CalmNW5W3CalmCalmCalmW6NW6NW8W8NW9W7W10SW9SW7W7W7SW5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.