Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 5:11PM Friday December 13, 2019 2:17 AM EST (07:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:38PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1005 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est Friday...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots backing southeast after midnight. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers, drizzle and snow. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain and snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201912131000;;267262 FZUS53 KGRR 130305 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-131000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 130449 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1149 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 935 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Surface low center remains over Southern Wisconsin late this evening . with the associated warm front/trough axis extending NE into the Straits. Second push of synoptic precip is currently impacting much of our CWA . with the back edge now moving thru our SW counties As expected. areas west of US-131 have sufficiently warmed for snow to turn to rain. Areas of east of US-131 remain below freezing with precip remaining all snow.

Mid level moisture will steadily strip away from west to east over the next few hours as the surface low center lifts NE into Northern Lake Michigan. Ample low level moisture will remain over our entire area . and in conjunction with lingering low level convergence and some orographic lift . still expect areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle/light snow will develop overnight mainly for Eastern Upper and far Northern/NW Lower Michigan. Light accumulations of snow and ice could very well lead to some slippery travel conditions . so will certainly keep all Winter Wx Advisories in tact thru the overnight hours. Have cancelled the Winter Storm Warning for Mackinac county and issued a Winter Wx Advisory for the light mixed precip overnight to match up with the rest of the ongoing Advisories.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 335 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Snow to freezing drizzle in spots tonight . ongoing and additional winter weather headlines.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 1016mb surface low over north-central Iowa at early afternoon is tracking toward a 5mb/3h pressure fall center over northwest Lower Michigan and adjacent areas of Lake Michigan. Warm front attached to this low extends east into southern Wisconsin/central Upper. Surface temperatures have been warming through the morning with the freezing line creeping into southwest portions of the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows a nice little bowling ball rolling east across the upper Midwest . hints of a secondary lead wave moving quickly across the Lower Peninsula and supporting a deformation-ish east-west snow band across the Upper Peninsula with some decent snowfall ongoing. Most of northern Lower has seen a lull in the precipitation though some snow continues over the far tip of the mitt . drier air below 750mb advecting in from the southwest with lots of altostratus about. More snow on the other side of Lake Michigan across Wisconsin closer to approaching short wave trough and along low level jet/moisture advection axis.

Surface low over Iowa will continue to propagate northeast . more likely reforming over Wisconsin farther along the warm front where strongest pressure falls are currently occurring. Low eventually slides into eastern Upper along with the surface warm front . though pressure pattern more likely just gets strung out with time.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Evolution of wintry precipitation overnight . with some complications from warming surface temperatures. Arrival of stronger forcing and moisture push expected to bring precipitation back into northern Lower next several hours . while moderate/heavy snow will continue into early evening across eastern Upper with strongest frontogenetic support ongoing. Main short wave trough will roll across the upper Lakes this evening . as it does mid level moisture will get stripped away. So expect main area of precipitation to wane from southwest/ northeast as the evening progresses. But beneath the drying will be a fairly substantial moist layer below 700mb . with some continued isentropic ascent and low level convergence . along with upslope flow into higher terrain of northern Lower. So expect some drizzle/ freezing drizzle to develop as snow moves out . temperatures west of US-131 are expected to climb above freezing this evening . so this minimizes the threat for freezing drizzle there . but eastern Upper and higher terrain of interior northern Lower likely to stay near or below freezing. Think enough of an icing threat exists across the interior to add them to the current Winter Weather Advisory across the tip of the mitt (which will be expanded through the night). Counties to be added to the advisory will be Antrim/Otsego/Montmorency/Kalkaska/Crawford/Wexford/ Missaukee. Less of a signal for freezing drizzle farther east into northeast Lower will preclude any headline issuance for the time being. Winter Storm Warning for Mackinac County will remain up . expires at 06z so by late evening we may drop the warning early and add them to the advisory for freezing drizzle. Expect snowfall totals across Mackinac County in the 7 to 10 inch range when all is said and done . heaviest west of I-75.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 335 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

A longwave trough stretching across much of the southern CONUS will progress east. Upper-level ascent provided in the exit region of this advancing trough will help develop a cyclone in the southeastern US, which will move and deepen with favorable baroclinicity along the Atlantic coast through the period. Subsidence aloft will help build surface high pressure in SW Canada into the northern Great Plains by Saturday. Somewhat enhanced surface flow from these features will result in more cold air funneling into the Great Lakes beginning late Saturday.

Precipitation from the system moving through the region overnight Thursday is expected to be mostly finished by Friday morning. Some snow showers could linger into the period mainly across far northwest lower and Mackinac county, but with very little accumulation. Precip chances return in the afternoon Saturday with the potential for some snow/wintry mix as temps high temps are expected to hover just above freezing in some areas. Otherwise, high temps on both days will be near freezing in most areas like previously mentioned with low temps in the upper 20s on Saturday morning. Relatively light winds are expected through much of the time period before picking up late Saturday.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 335 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

As the aforementioned cyclone continues to move up the Atlantic coast into eastern Canada and high pressure continues to build into the region from the west, mainly northwest flow between these features brings cold air into the area heading into the workweek. In the presence of favorable low level moisture and relative warm lake temps, this flow could bring more lake effect snow to northwest lower and eastern upper early Sunday. The potential exists for a system to impact the Great Lakes early next week, but confidence is currently low. Large uncertainty exists at this time with regards to location and timing, with most recent guidance hinting towards main impacts focused to our south and east. Otherwise, high temps in the teens and 20s are expected for much of the workweek.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1145 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Low pressure currently centered over southern Wisconsin will track NW to the Straits area and will then stall over our region thru Friday. Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle will impact much of far Northern/NW Lower Michigan overnight as mid level moisture is stripped away once the low reaches the Straits. Overall conditions will remain MVFR/IFR thru the forecast period as ample low level moisture remains in place. Surface winds will remain from the south AOB 10 kts thru Friday.

MARINE. Issued at 335 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for most northern Lower nearshore zones except through the Straits of Mackinac for tonight. Winds expected to diminish overnight as pressure gradient flattens out with arrival of surface low. Another round of advisories may be needed by Saturday night/Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ016>018- 021>023-027-028-032-033-086>088-095>099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LHZ348-349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . JPB SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MR MARINE . JPB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi38 min S 8 G 16 40°F 1015.2 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi38 min SSW 17 G 23 41°F 1014.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi54 min SSW 15 G 20 41°F 33°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi22 minESE 310.00 miOvercast35°F34°F96%1015.2 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi23 minSW 13 G 2110.00 miOvercast41°F33°F76%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW12W16
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2 days agoNW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.