Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fishers Landing, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 4:56PM Saturday January 18, 2020 5:33 PM EST (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:18AMMoonset 12:15PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1249 Pm Est Tue Dec 31 2019
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers and numerous rain showers.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain and snow showers likely Thursday night.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Rain showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Rain showers during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Saturday night. The saint lawrence seaway has closed for the 2019 navigation season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishers Landing, NY
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location: 44.26, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 182132 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 432 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strengthening storm system will pass to our west late today and the first half of tonight . then it will transition to the New England late tonight and Sunday. This will result in a prolonged period of potentially impactful weather that will range from accumulating mixed precipitation and strong wind gusts . to lake snows that will total over a foot in the lake snow belts. The effects from this widespread event may be minimized by its weekend timing. Some lake snow showers and a short lived period of very cold weather will follow on Monday to close out the holiday weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. . A Complex Storm will Support Widespread Winter Weather Headlines through Sunday .

As of 18z . a broad area of low pressure was centered over Lake Michigan. While the main supporting shortwave can be seen in WV imagery over Minnesota . the driving feature for this evolving system is a robust shortwave that is depicted over the Lower Ohio Valley. As this bundle of energy progresses up the Ohio Valley during the remainder of the afternoon . it will promote further intensification of the surface low that will be moving across Lower Michigan. A divergent upper level flow ahead of the consolidating sfc low will provide lift for widespread accumulating snow this afternoon . that should largely be in the form of snow across the region. Some sleet and patches of freezing rain will mix in with the snow over the far western counties during the remainder of the afternoon . particularly near Lake Erie.

As we work our way through the rest of the afternoon . a strengthening H25 jet (150kts) will push from the Ohio Valley across the Appalachians. This will place us under the favored left front exit region for enhanced lift . while a deepening southerly flow will impinge upon the first of two warm frontal boundaries that will be advancing from the Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes. The resulting frontogenetic lift will increase the intensity of the pcpn . while thermal profiles will gradually 'warm' below cloud level Climatologically. a deepening storm system cutting by to our west would normally guarantee a change over from snow to at LEAST a mix . if not to just rain at some point Interestingly. the vast majority of the guidance packages have struggled with depicting a significant warm nose as the deepening sfc low nears our region. Will have to continue to blend climatology with some of the 'warmer' guidance . with the result being a transition to mixed pcpn over the western counties all the way to the south shores of Lake Ontario by this evening The change to a mix. and for some sites (esp near Lk Erie) to a few hours of plain rain . will severely cut into snowfall amounts into early tonight . which will generally range from 2 to as much as 4 inches over most areas. Pcpn east of Lake Ontario is expected to remain as all snow though this event.

The primary sfc low will reach its peak intensity (lowest sfc pres) this evening . then as it becomes 'captured' by its supporting upper low . the newly stacked mature system will slowly start to weaken as it will move by to our north. This will effectively shut down the moderately strong warm advection that had been in place over our forecast area . as an elevated triple point will cross our forecast area. The pinching off of the shallow warm nose will allow the pcpn to start change back over to all snow over the western counties.

During the wee . pre dawn hours of Sunday morning . the cold air on the backside of the evolving complex storm system will deepen to the point where the lake snow machines will fire up on Lake Erie. The 250-260 flow will initially direct 2 to 4 inches moderately heavy lake snow across the southern half of Erie county . possibly starting over the Buffalo 'Southtowns'. As we work past daybreak Sunday . the steering flow will veer to 270 and the concentrated lake snows will push south across the Southern Tier Meanwhile. a cap that had been in the vcnty of 6k ft will rise to nearly 10k ft. The deeper convection and subsequent deeper dendritic growth zone (DGZ) will encourage more efficient snow making with snowfall rates of 1 to as much as 2 inches an hour generating daytime snowfall of 4 to 8 inches. This area has been upgraded to a Lake Effect snow WARNING.

Meanwhile across the Eastern Lake Ontario region . strong frontogenetic forcing tonight will produce 4 to 7 inches of synoptic snow This snow could be moderately heavy at times t. but as the synoptic storm system weakens during its transition to the coast . the widespread snow will lighten in intensity through the first half of Sunday Once the new coastal storm take shape. strong cold advection during the midday and afternoon will finally initiate lake snows over that region. An initial 260 flow early in the afternoon will fairly quickly veer to more than 300 deg by nightfall. While the organizing lake snows will be push south during this timeframe . daytime accumulations could top 8 inches on the Tug Hill Will thus maintain the winter storm warning for this area. which will cover not only the synoptic snow through tonight . but the lake snows on Sunday.

Finally . it will become quite windy across the region. A fairly strong cold front will plow across the region this evening. A 60kt LLJ in the vcnty of this boundary will at least partially mix to the sfc. This powerful LLJ will weaken fairly quickly by 6z though as the main system transitions to the coast. Will have to closely monitor this aspect to the weekend storm . as there is possibility that damaging winds could once again develop for a brief period over the western counties For now. will maintain wind gusts to 45 to 55 mph . especially west of the Genesee valley.

Relatively strong winds will persist across the forecast area through Sunday . as a 40kt LLJ within strong cold advection will support sfc gusts of more than 30 mph. This will lend to areas of wind blown snow . mainly in the lake effect areas.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Sunday night another mid level trough will drop southeast across the eastern Great Lakes, accompanied by a re-enforcing low level cold front. Associated deeper moisture and ascent from the shortwave will support fairly widespread snow showers for most of the area. Lake effect snow will also continue southeast of the lakes with adequate instability and a favorably deep mixed phase layer beneath the inversion producing dendritic crystal growth.

Boundary layer flow will be northwest in the wake of the trough, with lake effect snow off Lake Ontario focusing southeast of the lake from the Rochester area to western Oswego County. This area may see 2-4 inches of additional accumulation in the most persistent bands Sunday night. Off Lake Erie, lake effect snow will continue to focus across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge. Additional accumulations of 3-5 inches are possible here in the most persistent snows across higher terrain. Outside of the main lake effect areas, the trough may produce an inch or so accumulation. All of this will begin to diminish in intensity and areal coverage after midnight as deeper moisture departs.

Monday weak northwest flow lake effect will continue. there will be little left in terms of deep moisture or synoptic support, and inversion heights will lower steadily. This should only support light, disorganized lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes with minor accumulations. Another weak trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday night through early Tuesday. This may support a continuation of light lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes, but overall marginal moisture and shallow inversion heights should keep this light with minor, spotty accumulations. The lake response will come to an end later Tuesday night as warm advection spreads east across the eastern Great Lakes and lowers inversion heights further.

Temperatures will reach their coldest Monday and Monday night. Highs will be in the lower 20s in Western NY and teens east of Lake Ontario Monday. Lows Monday night will be in the teens across Western NY, and below zero east of Lake Ontario with less marine influence.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The second half of the workweek will much much quieter than the first half. The deep trough over the Great Lakes and New England will quickly depart Wednesday as strong height rises spread east across the U.S., and surface high pressure builds to the east coast. This will support a return to dry weather Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will warm rapidly as the cold pool aloft exits, replaced by 850MB temperatures warming above 0 C. This will support highs back in the lower 40s by Thursday and Friday across lower elevations.

The forecast becomes more uncertain again later Friday and especially Saturday. The overall upper air pattern across North America will remain quite warm in the mid latitudes, however a cutoff low will move east across the eastern third of the nation. This upper level low may have just enough cold air associated with it to bring winter weather back into play by Saturday.

Some previous model runs of the GFS and ECMWF were more aggressive in bringing warm air into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, resulting in a rain event. The 12Z GFS/GEM, and especially the 12Z ECMWF are trending colder again for Saturday and Sunday, potentially setting the stage for accumulating wet snow across our region as the upper level low moves slowly from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes Saturday through Sunday, eventually yielding to secondary coastal cyclogenesis later Sunday off the New England coast. This system is slow moving and should have a good deal of moisture associated with it, so it bears watching. For now introduced rain and snow into the forecast for next Saturday given temperature uncertainty.

AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Most of the TAF sites will experience IFR to VLIFR vsbys in steady snow during the remainder of the afternoon . as a deepening storm system will track from Lower Michigan across Lake Huron. The snow looks to mix with sleet or rain over western NY, and it may try to change completely to rain at times this evening as temps continue to warm.

As we progress into tonight . the steady precipitation will temporarily taper off from south to north and eventually change back to snow as colder air moves back in. This could result in a flash freeze in some areas over western NY, so that will be something to consider for airport operations. Otherwise, flying conditions will marginally improve to MVFR over the western counties . although IFR vsbys are still expected at KJHW. Meanwhile IFR vsbys in snow will persist east of Lake Ontario.

Late tonight . the leftover synoptic snow over the western counties will give way to lake snows. Most areas will maintain their MVFR conditions . largely due to lower cigs . while LIFR vsbys in lake snows will blossom over the Southern Tier.

On Sunday . MVFR cigs with scattered snow showers will be found at the major TAF sites while IFR to VLIFR vsbys in lake effect will be found at KJHW and possibly KART.

The lake snows will be accompanied by sfc wind gusts over 35kts late tonight and Sunday.

Outlook .

Monday . MVFR with IFR vsbys in lake snow across the Southern Tier and in a corridor between KROC and KSYR. Monday night and Tuesday . Mainly VFR, but MVFR in leftover lake snow showers southeast of both lakes. Wednesday and Thursday . Generally VFR.

MARINE. The small craft advisory for Buffalo harbor and the Upper IAG River has been upgraded to a gale warning.

A moderately strong area of low pressure will pass just north of Lakes Erie and Ontario through tonight. The passage of the low is favorable for the development of gales on Lakes Erie and Ontario from tonight through early Sunday morning, with sustained winds peaking at or just over 35 knots on both lakes. This will be a relatively short gale, with winds diminishing through the day Sunday and becoming more northwest.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Strong winds developing tonight into Sunday will bring another round of lakeshore flooding to both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The combination of high lake levels, strong onshore westerly winds, and high waves will produce some lakeshore flooding in bays and inlets at the east end of Lake Ontario impacting lakeshore areas of Jefferson and Oswego counties.

A seiche will also develop on Lake Erie tonight through Sunday morning as winds rapidly become southwest and increase to gale force. This will produce some flooding in bays and inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. Water may spray across Route 5 in Hamburg.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ010-019- 085. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ012-019- 020-085. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020-085. Lakeshore Flood Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ006-007. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ006>008. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ004-005-013-014-021. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001>003- 010-011. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LEZ040- 041. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LOZ030. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043>045- 063>065. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042-062.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . RSH SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . JLA/RSH MARINE . RSH/TMA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi51 min 1010.5 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 41 mi51 min 10°F 1012 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi45 min 20°F 1008.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY17 mi97 minENE 60.25 miSnow Freezing Fog20°F17°F89%1012.1 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY21 mi97 minSE 151.25 miLight Snow19°F14°F81%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4E3E3E3E3CalmE3CalmE3E4E5NE5E7E3E7NE8NE11NE11NE5NE10E10E6Calm
1 day agoN11N13N14N13
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2 days agoCalmCalmSE3CalmNE4E4NE4NE4NE6NE5N10N9N7NW7NW8NW8NW7N11N11NW11NW13
G20
N16N10N14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.