Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montpelier, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:41PM Sunday July 5, 2020 2:24 AM EDT (06:24 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 5:23AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montpelier, VT
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location: 44.27, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 050522 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 122 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. Temperatures will cool back into the upper 40s to lower 60s under partly cloudy skies overnight, before warming back into the 80s on Sunday. The chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms increase on Sunday, associated with a weak cold front. Dry weather returns for Monday, before the heat and humidity build by midweek, along with the chances for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 109 AM EDT Sunday . Main change with this update was to add some slight chance PoPs along the border. Seeing some light radar returns across southern Quebec into mainly northern VT, and a few upstream obs have reported light rain. The bulk of this activity should remain in Canada, but can't rule out a stray sprinkle or two in our far northern areas. Otherwise, made some slight adjustments to sky cover to match the latest radar trends. Everything else in good shape and no other changes were needed.

Previous discussion . A beautiful summer evening is in progress. Watching convection and clouds with the minor short wave moving southeast across Ontario. It is running into the dry air over our area and the precipitation is expected to dissipate before reaching the north country. The leftover clouds from that convection will pass through the area for a good part of the overnight slowing the temperature drop a bit and along with relatively low dew points and crossover temps thinking the chance of fog is diminished a bit. Lows will range through the 50s, except lower 60s in the Champlain valley.

Sunday the fcst concern will be the potential for aftn/evening showers/storms associated with 5h vort and weak sfc boundary. Similar to many events this convective season, not all ingredients lining up for widespread/organized storms, but more isolated to scattered activity due to dry mid levels and limited convergence/llvl moisture. Latest CAMS are offering different solutions with regards to how robust activity becomes during the early/mid aftn hours, with NSSL WRF, ARW, and HRDPS showing storms forming near the international border and moving into our cwa, with some mini bowing line segments. Meanwhile, the NAM/NAMNEST is much less aggressive, just showing a few isolated showers/storms, mainly trrn driven. Instability is the question mark with some guidance showing mixing of drier air to the sfc, similar to this aftn, resulting in dwpts in the upper 40s to mid 50s and sfc based cape values in the 500 to 1000 j/kg. Given temps in the 80s with some cooling aloft from approaching trof and good short wave dynamics, thinking scattered storms are possible with some threat for gusty winds/small hail. Sounding data shows relatively steep lapse rates thru 700mb, supporting the potential for convective gusty winds in the stronger elements, due to mixing and high cloud bases. Chatted with spc with regards to placing marginal risk into our cwa and they wanted to wait, so will not mention in the grids, but would not be surprised we see marginal in day 1 outlook. Otherwise, shear is reasonable with 0 to 6 km values in the 30 to 40 knot range, depending upon location and time, but lack of mid lvl moisture may limit areal coverage, as pw values are around 1.0.

Drier and cooler air advects behind boundary for Sunday night with temps cooling back into the mid/upper 40s mtn valleys to upper 50s/lower 60s urban areas. Have not mention patchy fog yet, but with building high pres and winds becoming light, anticipate some fog is possible, especially areas that receive rainfall on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 PM EDT Saturday . We return to quieter weather for the Monday and Monday night timeframe with surface high pressure ridging into our forecast area from the north and some upper level ridging over us as well. A dry air mass will be in place, therefore not really expecting any showers during this time. A surface warm front will lift north across our area Monday night, therefore have just a slight chance of showers mentioned to account for this. Temperatures will be very close to seasonal normals during this timeframe, upper 70s to lower 80s for daytime highs and upper 50s to lower 60s for overnight lows.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Saturday . From Tuesday through Friday hot and humid weather is anticipated with some chances for afternoon convection each day due to surface based instability from the airmass which will be in place. High temperatures each afternoon will range from the 80s to lower 90s, some overnight lows will be stuck in the 70s without much relief. Dewpoints will also reach the 70s and this will result in some surface based instability. Will have to keep an eye on the possibility that we'll need some heat headlines in the upcoming week. Can't rule out a thunderstorm during any of the afternoons from Tue through Fri. A low pressure system passing along the New England coast on Saturday will usher in some more widespread rain and hopefully a change in air masses headed into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites throughout the forecast period. Currently, mid-level clouds are making their way southeastward across the region, resulting in bkn/ovc cigs of ~100k ft. These clouds will continue to move eastward overnight, with a brief break in the clouds to follow. This clearing has already made it over much of northern NY. Additional clouds associated with decaying convection over eastern Ontario/western Quebec will spread over the area toward daybreak. A weak cold front will move out of Canada late this afternoon into the evening, with scattered showers/thunderstorms ahead of its passage. Have stayed with VCSH in the TAFs as coverage not enough to warrant anything more. Convection will wane by 02z-03z, with VFR thereafter. Light and variable winds early this morning will turn to the southwest and remain less than 10 kt, though some gusts to 20 kt will be possible at KMSS and KSLK. Winds switch to north behind the frontal passage.

Outlook .

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Taber/Sisson NEAR TERM . Hastings/Taber SHORT TERM . Neiles LONG TERM . Neiles AVIATION . Hammond/Hastings


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45188 45 mi100 min Calm 67°F 70°F1015.8 hPa
45178 48 mi85 min SW 3.9 71°F 75°F1012.4 hPa (+0.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT4 mi34 minN 010.00 miOvercast61°F55°F81%1015 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT18 mi31 minN 010.00 miLight Rain60°F55°F86%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMPV

Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm33CalmN9NW9NW8--W7NW7NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW4W3CalmS4NW3N4CalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmNE4N6S9SE12SW12S7S6S5S3CalmSE3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N43NW8NW6NW9NW7NW9NW7NW9NW6NW6W5W6CalmCalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.