Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
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|Sunrise 7:15AM||Sunset 4:14PM||Monday December 9, 2019 2:06 AM EST (07:06 UTC)||Moonrise 3:54PM||Moonset 5:14AM||Illumination 93%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montpelier, VTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBTV 090310 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1010 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019
SYNOPSIS. A light wintry mix will develop across the North Country later tonight with some light ice and snow accumulation possible by early Monday morning. This will cause areas of slippery travel during the Monday morning commute, especially east of the Green Mountains and deeper valleys of the northern Adirondacks. As temperatures climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s by midday Monday, any mix precipitation will change occasional rain showers by Monday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will continue, before a wind shift and cooler air arrives for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rain showers will change back to snow, but any accumulations will be light and mainly over the higher terrain.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 1010 PM EST Sunday . Still awaiting arrival of light precipitation in parts of Northern New York and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont as radar data indicates virga with increasing reflectivity. While we slowed the onset time of precipitation we are dtill on track for higher chances of light mixed precipitation to develop, especially after 4 AM. Slow but steady warm advection has been bringing a gradual rise in temperature and dew points. We increased forecast dew points and temperatures over the next few hours ahead of precipitation in accordance with the latest guidance, which seems to account for temperatures that are slightly higher than previous forecast. Rest of forecast in good shape and no other changes needed at this time.
Previous Discussion . A light wintry mix is anticipated to impact parts of the dacks and portions of central/eastern and northern VT tonight into Monday morning, with areas of slippery travel expected during the Monday morning commute. Have issued sps for the potential hazardous driving conditions across these areas, but any ice accumulation will be minor and only a couple hundreths of an inch and snowfall generally under an inch.
Water vapor shows deep broad southwest flow prevailing acrs the Great Lakes into the NE Conus with general waa continuing as better moisture profiles advect toward our fa. The combination of weak embedded 5h vort over the Ohio Valley, better 850 to 500mb moisture, and continued lift provided by favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing will produce a period of light wintry mix acrs portions of our cwa. This initial axis of moisture will be mainly confined to the northern Dacks into the mountains of central/northern VT, while strong 925mb to 850mb southwest winds of 45 to 55 knots will limit qpf/pops in the CPV. Also, best forcing/moisture is focused over our northern fa, with very limited qpf/pops expected over Rutland/Windsor Counties. Have this north to south gradient integrated into the fcst. Temps are tricky with breezy south/southwest winds and clouds prevailing overnight, so anticipate wider valleys of cpv/slv temps hold steady or increase toward 40f by 12z Monday. Meanwhile, cold air will remain trapped in the deeper/protected valleys with lows mainly in the 20s, especially east of the Greens. Soundings show complex low level thermal profiles with each model solution providing a different ptype solution. However, expecting warm layer to develop btwn 925mb and 850mb on strong southwest winds, with temps warming into the 1-3c, while cold pocket around 950mb of -2c to -3c supports the mix of some sleet. Have utilized a multiple model blend top down mixed precip approach, which indicates a mix of snow/sleet, changing to sleet/freezing rain, before changing to all rain by midday Monday. However, pockets of freezing rain are likely even with sfc temps in the mid 30s, due to very cold ground temps, especially with readings this morning in the 5 to -5f. Will issue sps to highlight the expected slippery traveling conditions acrs the dacks and east of the Greens. Periods of gusty south/southwest winds continue through tonight, especially in aligned valleys where deeper mixing occurs.
Monday, expecting areal coverage of precip to increase btwn 15-21z, especially acrs central/southern VT and upslope portions of the dacks. Given very strong 925mb to 850mb wind fields, anticipating qpf will be highly trrn driven with greatest amounts in the se upslope regions of the central/southern greens and eastern dacks. Meanwhile, downslope flow will limit qpf acrs the cpv. Have tried to show a sharp range in values from 0.15 near PBG to 0.25 BTV to 0.50 SLK and near 1.0 favorable se upslope areas. It should be noted that even with air temps mid/upper 30s, ground temps are cold, given recent cold spell, so areas of freezing rain with cold pavement temps could linger into mid morning on Monday. Pockets of slippery travel is anticipated, especially on any untreated road surfaces and bridges. Temps finally warm well into the 40s and threat for icing ends by aftn. Additional showers and very mild temps prevail on Monday night as cwa is well established in warm sector. Areas of fog are possible as warm/moist air advects over cold snow pack, especially deeper/protect valleys. Given, qpf/snow melt not anticipating any hydro related issues, but Otter Creek could approach flood stage according to the latest NERFC forecast.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 349 PM EST Sunday . A cold front will pass from west to east Tuesday morning causing temperatures to decrease throughout the day. Highs are expected mid- morning in the 40s, with lows Wednesday morning in the teens and low 20s. Winds will be brisk Tuesday morning at 10-15kts with gusts near 20-25kts, but will decrease Tuesday night and remain below 10kts for Wednesday. A chance of rain showers exists across the forecast area Tuesday, especially within the higher terrain of northern New York. Additional rainfall of a few hundreths is forecast during this time. As midlevel dry air settles in behind the front Tuesday afternoon, chances of precipitation dwindle, though a chance of snow showers persist Tuesday evening and overnight as lake moisture is advected into the region.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 349 PM EST Sunday . Wednesday will bring a lingering chance of snow showers across the region due to lake moisture coupled with upper level short wave energy. This will result in snow accumulations of less than half an inch Wednesday afternoon. High pressure then settles across the area Thursday allowing for some sunshine, though remaining chilly with highs in the teens and low 20s, and lows Friday morning in the single digits. Friday becomes cloudy again as we enter a regime of warm air advection ahead of an approaching low pressure system, which is expected to bring precip across the area Saturday. High temperatures at the end of the week are expected to be in the high 30s and low 40s.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Through 00Z Tuesday . Wind shear will continue to be an issue across much of the area through about 12z Monday with a lull in the winds between 12z and 18z on Monday and then a second low level jet moving in and creating low level wind shear once again across the area from 18z to the end of the period. During both periods of low level wind shear winds will be from the south at 2000 feet at speeds in the 40 to 50 knot range. This will result in areas of moderate to severe turbulence. Otherwise looking at VFR conditions with respect to ceilings and visibilities through about 12z. After 12z ceilings will be lowering into the MVFR category and possibly into the IFR category after 20z. Visibilities will be lowering as precipitation becomes widespread after 12z. Precipitation prior to 12z will be light and may be a mix of snow . sleet . freezing rain . and rain before becoming all rain between 12z and 18z. Visibilities will lower into the MVFR category after 12z and could briefly reach the IFR category.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE. A period of very strong winds will impact Lake Champlain tonight and continue through Monday. South winds of 25 to 35 knots and frequent gusts to 40 knots will occur tonight and creating very difficult boating conditions . especially on the north end of the lake where waves of 5 to 7 feet will occur because of the strong winds. Winds will eventually taper off a bit on Monday . but remain in the 20 to 30 knot range and waves of 4 to 6 feet.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.
SYNOPSIS . Taber NEAR TERM . Kutikoff/Evenson/Taber SHORT TERM . Hammond LONG TERM . Hammond AVIATION . Evenson MARINE . Evenson
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT||4 mi||76 min||SSE 6||10.00 mi||Overcast||30°F||19°F||64%||1023.4 hPa|
|Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT||18 mi||73 min||SSW 10 G 16||10.00 mi||Overcast||37°F||21°F||52%||1021 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KMPV
Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||NW||NW||NW||Calm||S||Calm||NW||N||NW||NW||NW|
|2 days ago||NW||NW||NW||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||Calm||S||S||Calm||N||Calm||NW||NW||W||NW||NW||NW||NW||NW |
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (2,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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