Montpelier, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montpelier, VT

May 25, 2024 10:02 PM EDT (02:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:13 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 11:11 PM   Moonset 6:15 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montpelier, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 252359 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 759 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
A few showers and a possible embedded thunderstorm will pass through tonight. Drier and warmer weather will move in for Sunday as high pressure briefly returns. Rain showers will gradually overspread the region on Memorial Day and last into Tuesday. Behind the storm, cooler weather will prevail for mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 742 PM EDT Saturday...Showers have come through and are falling apart running into dry air which is in place across the north country. Precipitation thus far has been extremely light, and any showers that continue will be inconsequential. Previous discussion follows.

Clouds are increasing this afternoon and rain showers will arrive this evening. These will be from a dying occluded front that will make its way through the region. The steadiest rain will pass by to the south and it will mostly be some scattered showers here. Some elevated instability will develop overnight and a couple of the showers may contain some thunder, but they will generally be unimpressive. QPF will mostly be under a tenth of an inch but the areas that see the convective showers will see a little more. The showers will move out later in the night and partial clearing will occur. With light winds and plentiful low- level moisture from the rain in place, patchy fog should develop.

A warmer and slightly more humid airmass will move in behind the front for Sunday. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to low 80s and dew points will be in the 50s. Daytime heating could cause isolated showers to develop, mainly over the high terrain and southeast Vermont. Ridging will briefly build in for late Sunday and Sunday night, and skies should gradually clear.
The dry weather will be short-lived though as rain showers will begin to enter the region late Sunday night. These will be out ahead of a stronger area of low pressure that will impact the region Monday-Tuesday. Winds will shift to southeasterly and begin to strengthen later in the night. Lows will therefore likely be during the middle of the night as the winds will mix warm air down to the surface and strengthen warm-air advection and likley cause temperatures to rise. Lows will overall be mild, with temperatures only dropping into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...A surface occlusion is expected to develop across the region on Monday as low pressure matures across the Great Lakes area. 40-50kt mid-level flow will transport warm, moist air north. The combination of isentropic lift and weak elevated instability will drive isolated showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Abundant cloud cover will keep conditions a bit cooler, but still on the warm side in addition to higher dewpoints move into the area. Additionally, the increased mid-level flow will likely yield some 20 to 30 mph gusts, locally up to 35 mph on Monday.

The bulk of precipitation will occur Monday evening into the overnight when sharper surface confluence develops along the occluded front. The front will be slow to progress east, but a jet streak will approach to help force it east towards dawn on Tuesday before it can really outstay its welcome. Areal extent will decrease with the loss of daytime heating, but never completely diminish. With the humid air mass, expect mainly mid 50s to lower 60s. The front doesn't quite clear Vermont until afternoon, and so showers and storms could develop early before shifting out. Then showers rotating within the upper low will reach St. Lawrence County as well. The tongue of dry air associated with a dry slot will keep the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont relatively dry on Tuesday. Expect another seasonably warm day in the 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast guidance diverges fairly quickly beyond Tuesday. The primary source of difference is how deep the upper low is. The deeper it is, the slower the model wants to shift it out of the region. Additional pop-up, hit-or- miss shower activity will be present through the remainder of the week. Probabilistic data currently suggests Friday and Saturday have lower chances for precipitation, but as we head deeper into summer, their skill will suffer as convection becomes more common place. However, the pattern overall does not appear likely to be too wet heading into the following week and CPC does forecast Day 6-10 as drier than normal too. With general troughiness, it does appear that we will spend a few days on the cooler side of normal for a few days. Expect mid 60s for the midweek to trend back into the 70s by the weekend with 40s to 50s overnight.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 00Z Monday...Aviation focus will be on IFR potential after 06z at SLK/MSS and MPV. Currently VFR at all sites with some light rain showers moving from west to east. Additional showers are possible through 06z, before subsidence/dry air aloft develops with decreasing threat for rain showers. This drying will help push moisture toward the surface with a lowering cloud deck, especially at SLK with some intervals of IFR vis/cigs possible. Have noted LAMP guidance suggesting fog at with IFR at MSS, but confidence is lower with probability <10%, so have used VCFG for now. Otherwise, feel a 10 to 15% probability of fog/br with ifr is possible around sunrise at MPV/EFK, but given the clouds and timing after 06z, have not mention in tafs. Otherwise, VFR redevelops at all sites by 12z with light trrn driven winds <6 knots prevail thru 00z Monday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMPV EDWARD F KNAPP STATE,VT 5 sm71 mincalm10 smOvercast61°F54°F77%29.90
KMVL MORRISVILLESTOWE STATE,VT 18 sm68 mincalm10 smOvercast61°F52°F72%29.86
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Burlington, VT,




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