Vergennes, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vergennes, VT

June 24, 2024 3:53 PM EDT (19:53 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:07 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM
Moonrise 11:17 PM   Moonset 7:33 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vergennes city, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 241946 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 346 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure causing showers this afternoon and evening will move east tonight, and high pressure builds in for tomorrow.
This will lead to a sunny and much warmer day. A cold front approaches on Wednesday and brings the possibility for strong storms and heavy rainfall.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Showers are expected to dwindle this evening and tonight as low pressure moves off to the east and is replaced by building high pressure and ridging. Any additional rainfall from lingering showers will amount to up to 0.25". Ridging will also allow skies to gradually clear throughout the night tonight, and temperatures should drop into the 50s for most, which is roughly seasonable for late June in our forecast area. With clearing skies, high pressure subsidence, and recent rainfall, there is the potential for some patchy fog tonight, particularly in the more typical valleys spots.

The ridge will crest over us tomorrow, and 925mb temperatures are expected to be in the 22-24 C range, which should allow surface temperatures to climb into the 80s by tomorrow afternoon. Increasing moisture in the atmosphere and a shortwave trough will bring clouds into the area from the west throughout the day tomorrow, which could limit temperatures slightly. Tomorrow night, a warm front will cross the forecast area, producing some light rain showers, most likely over northern New York and northern Vermont. Rain will be light, perhaps up to a tenths of an inch at most. This warm front and the increased clouds will allow low temperatures to simmer in the 60s throughout tomorrow night, a noticeable difference from the cooler weather we expect tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Model evolution for Wednesday system has changed a bit from runs 12- 24 hours ago. Most feature a slightly more southerly track resulting in a shift in best instability and track of heaviest rainfall. As such, daytime precipitation chances were largely reduced early Monday before increasing again Monday afternoon and overnight. The system trajectory is now favored more on a southwest/northeast track in the consensus with moderate rain probable across mainly southern Vermont. NAM/mesoscale models continue to be drier with an even farther south placement of the surface low and could see a forecast trend in this direction should other global models/ensembles trend similarly. Still, ample moisture, a forcing mechanism, and elevated instability will keep chances of thunderstorms going late Wednesday into the overnight hours before the surface feature tracks eastward into Maine by Thursday morning. Temperatures should warm into the 80s during the day temperatures cooling into the 50s and 60s overnight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Shower chances diminish early Thursday with cool air advection and building high pressure under northerly flow.
Dry conditions will likely prevail into the weekend with highs ranging from the mid/upper 60s to the mid/upper 70s Thursday and Friday. Conditions begin to change Saturday ahead of the next system projected to move through the region. Southerly flow will likely increase as models show an amplified trough approaching the region.
Thermal/pressure gradients will be moderately tight resulting in some southerly breezes likely into the 20-30mph range. While the system has system has some robust characteristics and upper level support, amplitude of the longwave favors a fast moving wave. Timing will be key in determining characteristics of sensible weather, but right now frontal passage is favored over Saturday night. Some thunderstorms are projected off of elevated instability and relative forcing, but the nocturnal passage will limit overall strength.
Could see another round of moderate rainfall with this system keeping soils wet. High pressure appears poised to fill in behind this wave with dry conditions probable to start the next work week.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18Z Tuesday...Low pressure is producing showers and gusty winds across the forecast area this afternoon, which is making for a challenging first 6 hours of the TAF period from 18Z Monday to 00Z Tuesday. Conditions will be up and down from VFR to MVFR to even IFR at any given site in heavy gusty showers. Winds in these showers will be out of the northwest with gusts 15-25 knots until around 00Z Tuesday. Then, the trend will be improving conditions 00Z onward as showers dwindle and skies begin to clear. However, attention will then turn to the potential for mist or fog to impact TAF sites overnight tonight. Most likely period will be 06Z-12Z for fog, per usual, but some spots might experience fog a little earlier, perhaps starting around 03Z-06Z. Winds during this period should be light and variable or calm.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

MARINE
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain through about 8 PM due to winds 15-25 knots, gusts up to around 30 knots, and waves building to 3-5 feet in gusty showers.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 15 sm28 minN 16G225 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 64°F61°F88%29.64
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Burlington, VT,




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