Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 7:48 PM   Moonset 5:39 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 230744 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 344 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue before rain moves back into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Wednesday with the chance for snow on Wednesday as precipitation tapers off. Only minor accumulations of snow are expected given a period of warm temperatures ahead of the falling snow. After one cool day on Thursday, conditions will begin to warm and become above normal for the new work week. Another interval of sharp drying takes place Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will return Saturday afternoon into the new week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Despite south to southwest flow, the air today will again be very dry. A range of high res guidance suggest the coldest dewpoints will be late morning before increasing.
However, efficient warming will still yield dewpoint depressions around 40 with relative humidity values in the 20s(maybe staying just above 30 percent in the St. Lawrence Valley) from noon through 7 PM today. Combined with increasingly gusty south winds of 20 to 30 mph, fire weather concerns are present as conditions are near pre-green up criteria for Red Flag in the northern Champlain Valley. We're fortunate that the area with the lowest RH and highest gusts today were where showers were most concentrated a few days back.

With little moisture, we will efficiently warm into the 60s today.
It'll be a gorgeous day if you're willing to stand some breezy weather. South winds will maintain warm weather overnight, and then a strong upper trough will usher in some precipitation overnight and into Wednesday. The system is most impressive for the sharp deformation axis and strong frontogenesis in conjunction with favorable coupling of surface convergence with some upper divergence at the left exit of an upper jet. The system is less impressive for its moisture parameters and fast moving nature, which will act as limiters to overall precipitation amounts. Regionally, amounts will be lowest in southern Vermont and particularly the Connecticut River Valley around a tenth or less. Further north, about 0.20-0.50" is expected. Along the international border in New York, some locations may observe about 0.75" of liquid. Strong cold advection on the backside will drive cold, dense air near the surface and make for a transition to some snow before it clears the region. Snow should be fairly short-lived and antecedent warmth will preclude much in the way of accumulations, but parts of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains could approach 1" with perhaps 2" at summit levels. Daytime highs across the northern tier will likely happen in the morning/early afternoon before the front crosses with 40s to lower 50s in southern Vermont.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...A cold, dry airmass will move into the region in the wake of a strong cold front that moves through Wednesday, which will quickly bring any precipitation to an end. The dry air and calm winds will allow for strong radiational cooling, with overnight lows dropping into the 20s, and even the teens in some locations.

Dry conditions will continue for Thursday as the region remains under the influence of high pressure. Daytime highs will be cold by late April standards, with highs climbing into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Despite the cooler temperatures, abundant sunshine and light winds across the region will make it fairly pleasant. Another cold night can be expected overnight Thursday into early Friday morning with clear skies and light winds, with temperatures dropping into the 20s to near freezing once again

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Another dry and sunny day will round out the work week as high pressure continues to shift eastward, with increased southerly flow allowing for warmer, seasonable temperatures. Precipitation chances will increase as we head into the weekend into early next week as several shortwaves rotate into the region, although guidance is still fairly spread with the exact timing of these features. The other thing to consider is the amount of dry air across the region these features will have to overcome for measurable precipitation. Given the uncertainty at this point, continued to stick with the NBM. Temperatures will continue to warm up through the weekend, with highs in the 60s and possibly 70s by early next week.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 06Z Wednesday...Conditions the next 12 to 18 hours.
Skies are mostly clear with localized pockets of high clouds.
South winds will begin to pick up beyond 08z-10z. Until then, VAD profiles indicate 30-35 knot winds are occurring from 1000-2000 ft agl, which suggests models are under-doing wind speeds at that level. Using the general shape of where models depict the highest winds off the surface, this suggests LLWS for KMSS, KPBG, KBTV, and KEFK until surface winds pick up.
After 12z, we should see speeds increase to 7 to 14 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Winds diminish after 22z to 00z, but remain at 5 to 10 knots sustained. Precipitation will begin to approach from the west about 00z to 03z and slowly spread east beyond 06z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 343 AM EDT Tuesday...Dry weather is this afternoon. The core of the lowest dewpoints will happen this morning and early afternoon, but efficient heating will continue to produce large dewpoint depressions. The minimum RH values are expected to be slightly higher compared to yesterday, but still likely to dip into the 20 percent range. Parts of the St. Lawrence Valley may stay above 30 percent depending on how quickly incoming moisture arrives. Based on our local red flag criteria, we are expected to hit red flag conditions (25+ mph winds and RH below 30%) late this morning into this evening. However, fuels remain sufficiently moist to prohibit the issuance of a red flag warning. Nevertheless, fine fuels such as leaf litter and twigs are sufficiently dry to start a few brush fires. As such, open burning is not encouraged today. Please visit or contact your local forestry or environmental protection services for additional information. Remember, the state of New York has a burn ban in place through May 14th.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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