Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vergennes, VT
May 16, 2024 9:50 PM EDT (01:50 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 1:22 PM Moonset 2:37 AM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 162338 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 738 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
After a showery pattern over the last week, a pattern change looks in store for us this weekend into the middle of next week. High pressure is expected to develop across the North Country this weekend with temperatures warming each day through next Tuesday. Our first taste of summer will be upon us with highs climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 723 PM EDT Thursday...With a few more breaks in cloud cover, the extent of fog was expanded in the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont where precipitation has fallen. Otherwise, the forecast is right on track with diminishing shower chances as daytime heating wains.
Previous Discussion...The stalled frontal boundary, not surprisingly, hasn't move much throughout the day today.
Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts the frontal boundary very well with an agitated cumulus field along the front, stable stratus behind the front, and increasing cloud cover ahead of the front. Given nice baroclinicity associated with differential heating, we've seen scattered showers develop across northern Vermont and northern New York. Given weak thermal profiles, equilibrium levels around 14kft should limit updraft strength and will likely prevent the ice nucleation needed to create lightning. Some showers this afternoon and evening could be heavy at times we a few sites reporting up to half of an inch of rain in an hour. We should quickly see these showers wane as we head into the evening and lose what limited instability that is currently in place. We will finally see the frontal boundary lift north on Friday as a a developing upper level ridge finally displaces the cut off low off the Mid- Atlantic coastline. This should shift the shower activity north of the International Border on Friday but another round of showers is expected to move in from the west Friday night with the main focus of the shower activity across the St. Lawrence Valley.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...A mid-level shortwave trough will bring the potential for precipitation Saturday, and there remains a moderate level of uncertainty amongst the deterministic models.
Shower chances look to be 20-40% throughout the day as Saturday catches the tail end of the forcing from the shortwave. Instability is relatively unimpressive, but the best chance for some rumbles of thunder will be in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York Saturday afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s, roughly 5 degrees above climatological normals.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure and mid/high level ridging will take up residence for the second half of the weekend and the first half of next week, providing fairly dry weather and increasing temperatures. Subsidence from high pressure could assist in producing isolated patchy fog for a couple of the nights. If all goes according to forecast, Monday may be the first 80+ F day at the BTV airport as temperatures rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the forecast area both Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to agree strongly on temperatures 75+ F outside of the higher elevations for those days, particularly Monday.
The next chance for precipitation will be midweek onward, when a frontal passage could provide some showers and thunderstorms, particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will also allow high temperatures to dip back down towards seasonable in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00Z Saturday...All terminals are currently VFR and they should stay that way through the evening. Patchy fog will develop across the region later tonight. The most likely terminals to have fog are SLK, MPV and EFK. However, confidence is not overly high in the fog forecast so it cannot be ruled out at any of the other terminals. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate by mid-morning and VFR conditions will persist through the rest of the day. Winds will be relatively light during the whole period, generally shifting to southerly during the day tomorrow. LLWS is not a concern. A brief shower is possible at any of the terminals during the day tomorrow but it likely would not be heavy enough to cause any significant visibility restrictions.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 738 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
After a showery pattern over the last week, a pattern change looks in store for us this weekend into the middle of next week. High pressure is expected to develop across the North Country this weekend with temperatures warming each day through next Tuesday. Our first taste of summer will be upon us with highs climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 723 PM EDT Thursday...With a few more breaks in cloud cover, the extent of fog was expanded in the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont where precipitation has fallen. Otherwise, the forecast is right on track with diminishing shower chances as daytime heating wains.
Previous Discussion...The stalled frontal boundary, not surprisingly, hasn't move much throughout the day today.
Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts the frontal boundary very well with an agitated cumulus field along the front, stable stratus behind the front, and increasing cloud cover ahead of the front. Given nice baroclinicity associated with differential heating, we've seen scattered showers develop across northern Vermont and northern New York. Given weak thermal profiles, equilibrium levels around 14kft should limit updraft strength and will likely prevent the ice nucleation needed to create lightning. Some showers this afternoon and evening could be heavy at times we a few sites reporting up to half of an inch of rain in an hour. We should quickly see these showers wane as we head into the evening and lose what limited instability that is currently in place. We will finally see the frontal boundary lift north on Friday as a a developing upper level ridge finally displaces the cut off low off the Mid- Atlantic coastline. This should shift the shower activity north of the International Border on Friday but another round of showers is expected to move in from the west Friday night with the main focus of the shower activity across the St. Lawrence Valley.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...A mid-level shortwave trough will bring the potential for precipitation Saturday, and there remains a moderate level of uncertainty amongst the deterministic models.
Shower chances look to be 20-40% throughout the day as Saturday catches the tail end of the forcing from the shortwave. Instability is relatively unimpressive, but the best chance for some rumbles of thunder will be in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York Saturday afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s, roughly 5 degrees above climatological normals.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure and mid/high level ridging will take up residence for the second half of the weekend and the first half of next week, providing fairly dry weather and increasing temperatures. Subsidence from high pressure could assist in producing isolated patchy fog for a couple of the nights. If all goes according to forecast, Monday may be the first 80+ F day at the BTV airport as temperatures rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the forecast area both Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to agree strongly on temperatures 75+ F outside of the higher elevations for those days, particularly Monday.
The next chance for precipitation will be midweek onward, when a frontal passage could provide some showers and thunderstorms, particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will also allow high temperatures to dip back down towards seasonable in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00Z Saturday...All terminals are currently VFR and they should stay that way through the evening. Patchy fog will develop across the region later tonight. The most likely terminals to have fog are SLK, MPV and EFK. However, confidence is not overly high in the fog forecast so it cannot be ruled out at any of the other terminals. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate by mid-morning and VFR conditions will persist through the rest of the day. Winds will be relatively light during the whole period, generally shifting to southerly during the day tomorrow. LLWS is not a concern. A brief shower is possible at any of the terminals during the day tomorrow but it likely would not be heavy enough to cause any significant visibility restrictions.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT | 15 sm | 56 min | ENE 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 68°F | 59°F | 73% | 29.90 |
Burlington, VT,
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