Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Thousand Island Park, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Currently, a weak and slow moving cold front is draped from wsw to ene from the Niagara Frontier to the North Country, slowly tracking southeast. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms can be found from portions of the western Southern Tier to the Northern Finger Lakes area.

The weak cold front will continue to slowly move through the region this evening and should exit south and east of the area by late this evening. Lingering moisture and building instability will support some showers or an isolated thunderstorm ahead of the front. Some hazy skies may exist with smoke particles filtering in from the northwest.

Behind the cold front, weak surface ridging builds into the region tonight. Skies should gradually clear out from the northwest.
Light winds and lingering low level moisture will likely lead to areas of fog late tonight into early Tuesday, especially across the western Southern Tier and southeast of Lake Ontario.

Dry weather will last through Tuesday. Heat and humidity will start to build back into the region with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s with the warmest heat index values reaching the lower 90s, along the lake plains, Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough lifting northeast out of northern Illinois and Indiana into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday, will support weak surface wave to travel north out of the Ohio Valley and across New York State and into New England Wednesday and into Thursday. This being said, associated ascent and moisture will advect into the forecast area resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for activity will lie from the western Southern Tier towards the Finger Lakes during peak diurnal heating, so mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Ahead of the thunderstorm potential, a hot and humid airmass will remain overhead of the region Wednesday supporting heat indices in the mid 90s and approaching 100 at times, especially across the lake plains, Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. While increasing cloud cover may suppress heating, there continues to be medium confidence that upper 90s heat indices will be reached.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will merge with the longwave trough passing across the northern Plains and into the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Then Thursday, the longwave trough will trudge east across the central Great Lakes towards the eastern Great Lakes. As a result, a surface cold front will approach the region from the northwest Wednesday night and Thursday, before crossing the region Thursday night. Timing of these features continue to have some discrepancies. However with the discrepancies, showers and thunderstorms will be possible due to the warm muggy airmass already in place.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Longwave troughing will be in the midst of crossing the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast Friday before zonal flow briefly graces the region Saturday. Troughing will then return to the Great Lakes and New England Sunday and Monday.

A cold front associated with the first longwave trough will cross the area Friday, supporting continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, the passage of the front will provide some relief to the heat and humidity.

Aforementioned zonal flow will support surface high pressure to settle in across the Great Lakes for the start of the weekend. The surface high will then exit east towards the Atlantic coast Sunday as troughing moves back into the Great Lakes supporting the next surface low to track from the central Great Lakes and across New England through Monday. As a result, the potential for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast.

AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low end VFR or patchy MVFR ceilings will continue into the early evening as a weak cold front continues to push through the region.
Skies will gradually clear out from northwest to southeast through this evening. Any thunderstorms through early this evening will be isolated and remain away from any TAF site.

HRRR/RAP smoke model suggesting some potential for smoke/haze to bring in some possible vsby restrictions or obscuration. This is currently happening this evening at a few sites (KIAG and KART).
There is low confidence on how long this will last into tonight.

VFR will prevail tonight, however areas of fog will develop in a low level moist environment with clearing skies and light winds. The greatest confidence in IFR conditions is at the KJHW terminal.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...VFR.

MARINE
Quiet conditions are expected on the lower Great Lakes through Tuesday with winds variable under 10 knots. Could see a more predominately southerly flow behind the passage of a warm front Wednesday, but winds should remain below 10 knots.

Next chance for increased winds will be Thursday behind a passing cold front with southwesterly winds pickup up to 15 knots with waves getting into the 2-3 foot range at times. There will be greater potential for thunderstorms during this time, so winds and waves could be higher in those instances.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>007- 010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.