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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Thousand Island Park, NY

June 25, 2024 5:18 AM EDT (09:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM
Moonrise 10:55 PM   Moonset 8:04 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 428 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

Tonight - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny through early afternoon, then becoming partly Sunny.

Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.

Wednesday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely.

Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers during the day.

Friday - Light and variable winds becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Friday night.

Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

SLZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thousand Island Park, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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996 FXUS61 KBUF 250817 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 417 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm and humid conditions will return today and then last into Wednesday
Along with it
there will be increasing chances of showers and some thunderstorms, especially on Wednesday. Cooler less humid conditions Thursday through Friday but dry weather. Active weather makes a return Saturday as a cold front crosses the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Quiet weather will be maintain area wide this morning. The axis of the sfc ridge will exit off to our east today. Return southerly flow is advertised to then pick up this afternoon with wind gusts up to 30 mph across Western NY
That said
a warm frontal segment is advertised to cross the region which may introduce a shower or an isolated thunderstorm. There is also some indication that the remnants of the upstream convection (MCS) from overnight will possibly make it into the region. HRRR and all hi-res guidance bring it into Western NY but in a very weakened state
Eitherway
we still can`t rule out some showers or a thunderstorm as this wave works through the region. The best shot will be across the North Country and St. Lawrence valley where higher PoPs have been placed.

Otherwise...highs today will be found mainly in the 80s, with the warmer spots in the mid to upper 80s.

Tonight...the cold front will drop south into the region with additional chances for some showers or a isolated thunderstorm. The best chances will again be found again across the North Country closer to the support from the upper-level jet. In terms of low temps...we should see mercury reading fall back into the 60s by sunrise Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
On Wednesday low pressure over northern Quebec and Labrador will gradually pivot its trailing cold front southeastward across our area
During the morning and very early afternoon hours
this feature should be largely starved for much in the way of support...
and thus will probably only produce some scattered showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms as it makes its way roughly to/ just south of the I-90 corridor
After that time
a wave of low pressure will ripple northeastward along the boundary and slow its southward progress through the balance of the day...while also providing a notable uptick in moisture and large-scale ascent. This should translate into showers and some storms becoming more numerous to widespread across the Southern Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes Region during the afternoon and early evening hours...while more scattered pcpn should be found further north along the northern periphery of the passing wave. Given continued uncertainty in the timing/positioning of the frontal boundary...the amount of available instability during this more active portion of Wednesday remains rather questionable at this time
This being said
if sufficient instability is realized can see at least a lower-end risk for an isolated stronger storm or two across the Southern Tier given the presence of sufficient shear...which lines up well with the Marginal Risk for severe storms advertised by SPC in the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook. With PWATs also temporarily surging to around 1
5 inches
there will also be at least some threat for heavy rainfall with any storms...with this risk again greatest across the western Southern Tier which will lie closest to the track of the passing wave
With respect to temperatures
these should range from the mid 70s to lower 80s...with humid conditions out ahead of the front becoming somewhat less so following the passage of the boundary.

Wednesday night a shortwave trough will slide across our region while escorting the initial wavy cold frontal boundary and any deeper moisture/attendant threat for heavier rain off to our south and east...resulting in a commensurate northwest-to-southeast decrease in pcpn potential
In its wake
a much weaker and moisture- starved secondary cold front will slide across our area later Wednesday night and early Thursday...while possibly bringing a few more widely scattered showers to the North Country and far eastern Finger Lakes. Yet another shortwave will then dive across Southern Ontario and Saint Lawrence Valley Thursday afternoon and evening...
and this in tandem with some weak diurnally-driven instability could lead to a yet few more widely scattered showers across the North Country. Otherwise generally dry and uneventful weather will predominate across our region from the second half of Wednesday night through Thursday...though the influx of cooler air and developing upslope flow behind the passing fronts will probably lead to at least some lower clouds hanging around into Thursday morning.
As for temps...the incoming cooler/drier airmass will bring about much more comfortable conditions for Wednesday night and Thursday...
with lows Wednesday night generally between 55 and 60...and highs on Thursday mostly ranging from the upper 60s across the higher terrain to the lower 70s elsewhere.

Expansive Canadian high pressure will then build directly across our area Thursday night...then will drift east into New England on Friday. This will provide us with fair dry weather to close out the work week. Excellent conditions for radiational cooling will allow lows to settle into the mid-upper 40s across the interior Southern Tier/North Country and to the lower-mid 50s elsewhere Thursday night...with a developing southerly return flow on the backside of the departing ridge then allowing highs to recover to the mid 70s across the North Country and the upper 70s-lower 80s elsewhere on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Quasi-zonal flow remains in place through this period...with another mid-level trough and elongated attendant wave of low pressure (along with its associated warm and cold fronts) still looking to pass across the area this weekend. While the usual differences in timing persist amongst the medium range guidance...in general a loose consensus continues to suggest that pcpn chances will begin to return later Friday night and then ramp up during Saturday...with the best likelihood for showers/storms still looking to come Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening in tandem with the approach and passage of the primary cold front
Depending upon its timing
a trailing secondary cold frontal boundary could then keep the chances for some showers around into Sunday...before dry weather returns Sunday night and Monday
Otherwise
warmer and more humid conditions out ahead of this system will once again give way to cooler and more comfortable weather on its backside.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mainly VFR expected to remain across all area terminals today. South to southwest winds pick up today across far western terminals to include KBUF, KIAG, and KJHW. Winds up to 30 knots will be possible.
There is also the chance of some showers as remnants of the upstream MCS crosses the region
With it
ceilings will begin to lower, with some MVFR Cigs by this evening.

Tonight...a mix of VFR/MVFR Cigs will be found across most area terminals. Lower Cigs (IFR) may materialize across the S. Tier to include KJHW, along with some patchy fog producing lower vsbys.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers most area terminals.
Showers and a chance of thunderstorm across the Southern Tier.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...Localized restrictions with shower likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
A south to southwest wind flow picks up across Lake Erie and the western end of Lake Ontario today. Waves will be offshore, but a period of Small Craft conditions will develop this afternoon into the evening. SCAs have been issue for Lake Erie beginning at 16Z though 03Z this evening. There will also be a chance of some showers, this as a pair of fronts cross the region through tonight.
Winds will also remain elevated on area lakes tonight producing light to moderate chop on both lakes.

Lighter winds and wave action is expected Wednesday but there may be better coverage of shower and storm for Lake Erie.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi48 min 67°F29.87
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 42 mi48 min 67°F 29.83
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi48 minWSW 9.9G14 69°F 29.8858°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KART WATERTOWN INTL,NY 19 sm22 minS 0410 smClear61°F57°F88%29.88
KGTB WHEELERSACK AAF,NY 22 sm23 minSW 0410 smClear63°F55°F77%29.86
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Wind History graph: ART
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Montague, NY,




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