Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 11:29 AM   Moonset 1:28 AM

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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 437 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of showers this evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Thursday night - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Friday - Light and variable winds. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. Saturday - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. Sunday - South winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Monday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 152041 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 441 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure will build into the Lower Great Lakes which will bring mainly dry weather later tonight and Thursday morning before a frontal boundary brings rain back to the region Friday through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A broad 500mb trough overhead will slide east into southern New England tonight. This combined with diurnal heating and instability will result in some showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. These will mainly be focused along and inland of a surface convergence boundary which will be to the south of the lakes. The stabilizing influence of the northeast flow across the Niagara Frontier and near the south shores of the lakes will limit showers at these locations.

Showers will taper off later this evening and overnight, but there still will be lots of low moisture, cloud cover, and fog.
The exact location of the fog is difficult to pin down, but it should be more widespread than it was last night, and it could be locally dense. The cloud cover will limit radiational cooling tonight with lows in the mid 50s.

A diffuse area of surface pressure and a mid level ridge will build into Western NY during Thursday. This will bring mainly dry weather to the region, although there may be a few showers east of Lake Ontario where there will be some instability and weaker ridging.
Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The ridge will strengthen Thursday night, providing fair and rain free weather overnight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough will ripple over a diminishing mid level ridge this period, promoting more coverage area to showers and a few thunderstorms, especially in the Friday night to Saturday timeframe.

Instability grows to around 500 to 750 J/KG of MUCAPE and this could bring a few thunderstorms, mainly later on Friday into Friday evening.

Just a lingering shower or isolated thunderstorm for the remainder of Saturday behind the shortwave trough. If some clearing over Lake Ontario develops, and a lake breeze boundary forms, could see a few showers forming south of the Lake, in convergence with a general light southeast synoptic flow.

Similar airmass this period, with 850 hPa temperatures between 10 and 12C through the afternoon will allow for low to mid 70s across lower terrain, and around 70F for inland higher terrain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
To begin this period a mid/upper level low will be off the Carolina coastline, with weak ridging aloft over our region. Much of the shower activity will remain to our south, leaving most of Sunday through Tuesday dry with a fair amount of sunshine. A deeper shortwave trough will cross the Plains and near our region Wednesday. Increasing moisture in the southern flow, and warmth aloft will increase instability, that along with lift ahead of the incoming trough will greatly increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Later Tuesday night and into Wednesday will be the most favorable timeframe for showers and thunderstorms this period.

Temperatures several degrees above normal Sunday and Monday, will become even more above normal ahead of the trough Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Stratus originating across Lake Ontario will expand as it pushes south tonight. This is likely to lower cigs into the IFR flight category, with areas of fog likely as well. Vsby in the fog is more difficult to forecast, with a potential for locally dense fog even though IFR is likely to be more common. The low moisture and fog will dissipate during the morning hours with conditions improving to mainly VFR by Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers like late.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Monday...VFR.

MARINE
Generally light winds will continue through the remainder of the week. Northeast winds in the 10-12 knot range will produce mainly light chop on Lakes Erie and Ontario through tonight. Otherwise, light winds will return Thursday as weak high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. An offshore flow will then develop Thursday night and Friday with gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes in advance of the next system approaching from the west.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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