Sunrise 5:07 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 2:10 PM   Moonset 2:40 AM

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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 626 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Sat night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Sun night - E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Mon - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ100 626 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a slow moving area of low pressure continues to track south of the waters today before passing well to the east of our area over the weekend high pressure than gradually builds across the waters into early next week.

FXUS61 KGYX 171031 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 631 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak trough will approach northern areas today bringing scattered showers to the mountains. This system will bring scattered showers to all areas on Saturday before exiting east of the region on Sunday. High pressure strengthens over the region early next week with dry conditions and much above normal temperatures. Scattered showers return by late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches and then crosses the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

630 AM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Still seeing some locally dense valley fog at this hour, but due to the fairly confined nature have opted to not issue an SPS as conditions will improve over the next hour so.

Previous...

Mostly clear skies and little to no wind has resulted in a fair amount of valley fog early this morning, which can actually be seen on satellite this time around. Some of it will be locally dense but most of this will dissipate within a couple hours after sunrise.

For the rest of the day, weak high pressure will be draped across northern New England resulting in mostly dry conditions and partly sunny skies, but clouds will start increasing later in the afternoon as a trough approaches from the west. The exception will be across the northern half of the area, where isolated to scattered showers are expected as there still be enough moisture and around 100 J/kg of CAPE. These will then fizzle out as we approach sunset. For highs, the MAV guidance has had a cool bias for the last several days, so I have played the persistence card and went slightly above this, which puts highs in the low- mid 70s, except for 60s at the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Clouds continue to increase tonight with the approach of the mid-level trough and as higher moisture streams northward stemming from the same area of low pressure that has been lingering to our south the last couple of days. Patchy fog will be possible again across the interior, and marine fog may move ashore on the coast this evening and tonight, but models have really struggled on this so I'm not super confident about it.

We could start seeing showers overnight and toward daybreak along and inland from the coast, per the NAMnest and HRRR, but confidence is low as other models keep dry conditions through the night. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Going into Saturday, mostly cloudy conditions remain in place through the day with the potential for showers across the area with the approach of the 500mb trough and the other disturbance approaching from the south. Model guidance remains in poor agreement, and due to this I have taken a "middle of the road" approach to rain chances with 40-60% across the area. Some areas will likely see chances come up in future forecasts (potentially by quite a bit) while others see a decrease, and hopefully today's 12Z guidance paints a clearer picture. I have also lowered temperatures some with generally low- mid 60s, but around 70 degrees is possible toward the CT River Valley.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper level low pressure system will continue to exit to our east Saturday night. Any leftover showers will begin to diminish during the evening hours. Temperatures will drop into the 40s with patchy fog forming across portions of the interior valleys.

As the upper level low continues to shift to the east on Sunday, high pressure will strengthen over the region. The most sunshine will occur over northern and western portions of the forecast area, with the most cloudiness accordingly over southern and eastern areas closest to the departing feature. As height rises continue, expect warming to occur with 70s across western Maine and New Hampshire. The exception will be along the coast with sea breezes limiting daytime temperatures to the 60s.

Height rises will continue on Monday and Tuesday with the surface ridge gradually shifting to our south. Warm air advection will allow for 70s across the interior once again on Monday with some readings above 80 degrees over southern and western New Hampshire. Sea breezes will return to the coastline during the daytime heating. 00Z operational models and ensemble solutions suggest that Tuesday will be the peak of the warmth with H8 temperatures approaching +14C in a well mixed environment and continuing dry conditions. This will allow for lower 70s along the coast and readings in the 75 to 85 degree range across the interior. Again, the vast majority of the region will continue to remain dry, however a shower or thunderstorm will be possible near the Canadian border as a front will be nearly stationary over southern Canada.

The warmth continues into Wednesday. However, winds will begin to back to the south as a large scale system approaches from the west. Scattered showers will begin to enter the region late Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night as low pressure crosses through southern Canada and moisture ahead of a cold front enters our region. This front will cross the region Thursday with scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder in the north. A few of the showers may be locally heavy with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and precipitable water values rapidly climbing.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...Fog that does develop will bring restrictions to a few sites, but this will dissipate by 11-12Z for inland sites while taking longer at the coastal sites, should it develop near the coast. VFR then expected the remainder of today with most showers expected to remain north of the TAF sites. If any site were to get a shower it would be HIE and AUG, but potential is much too low for TAF inclusion. For the coast, marine fog/stratus should remain just offshore most of the day, but could start to creep back inland by early this evening but more so tonight. Potential for MVFR to IFR ceilings along with showers increase overnight and Saturday, but confidence in details is low.

Long Term...Some MVFR ceilings are possible into Saturday evening as a weak system exits the area and scattered light rain showers diminish overnight. Otherwise the rest of the period will be VFR with light winds as high pressure builds in through Wednesday morning. Ceilings begin to lower late Wednesday through Thursday in scattered showers.

MARINE
Short Term...With the exception of the afternoon seabreezes, winds will be primarily out of the E/NE today and Saturday as low pressure stays south and east of the Gulf of Maine. These winds may increase enough during the day Saturday to bring a period of SCA conditions over the outer waters.

Long Term...SCAs may be needed over the weekend as low pressure passes over the waters and brings seas to around 5 ft.
Otherwise, high pressure builds in for next week which will bring conditions back below SCA thresholds and keep them there through this forecast period.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Hallowell
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Fri -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:16 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:20 AM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:57 PM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hallowell, Kennebec River, Maine, Tide feet

Nehumkeag Island
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Fri -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:59 AM EDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:47 AM EDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:28 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:24 PM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nehumkeag Island, Kennebec River, Maine, Tide feet

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