Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Tawas, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 931 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

General idea remains unchanged, with upstream convection expected to work east into the area overnight. Uncertainty on overall storm organization and coverage remains significant as waning instability intercepts still excellent deep layer shear.
Moisture advection is increasing rather significantly, at least supporting some maintenance of upstream activity as it heads east. SPC still highlights eastern upper and northwest lower as having the greatest potential of severe storms tonight...with winds and hail being the primary severe weather concerns. Will simply continue to monitor and see how things unfold over the next several hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Forecast Synopsis: Current satellite and radar depict areas of thunderstorm activity over the western Upper peninsula and western Lk Superior this afternoon. This is draping some high clouds over northern MI, however ample sunshine is still reaching the surface in most spots. Temperatures are quickly rising into the high 60s and low 70s across northern MI. Critical fire weather conditions due to frequently gusty southerly winds persisting dry air near the surface. These conditions will persist through the late afternoon hours as mixing heights rise to around 4 kft and mix out any moisture that tries to seep in from the west. NE lower will see these conditions linger into the evening, however mid and LL moisture will finally make its way over Lk MI and to NW lower. A surface cyclone will reach WI and move a warm sector over the state after midnight. This warm sector will have a LLJ of around 60 to 70 kts at 2-5 kft. During this time, there will be a SW/NE axis of upper level forcing draped over WI/MN and through Lk Superior. These features will start to dip SE around midnight, yielding strong shear (Bulk 0-6km up to 50 or even 60kts) and lift (mid and LL omega) over northern MI. Around 500 to 1200 j/kg of elevated instability will exist on top of this, and in some spots (near Manistee and Wexford Co.) a few hundred SFC/ML instability exists. Dry air aloft (600 mb and above) will be present throughout the night, leading to healthy mid level lapse rates of +7 C/km.

Putting this all together, an initial round of isolated thunder storms are possible over eastern upper and NW lower this evening and tonight (before midnight). A line of storms will likely sprout over central WI and the U.P. orientated from SW- NE. This will move across northern MI, reaching the western coast of Lk Huron by sunrise Tuesday. Chances remain favorable for a handful of these storms to produce damaging winds and some large hail. There is a non-zero chance for a tornado or two with the very favorable shear environment while cloud bases temporarily dip.

The front will move through Tuesday mid morning, which could result in more thunderstorm activity for NE lower as this is where the best environment will remain tomorrow morning.

Winds will be breezy overnight, however there is low confidence for widespread strong gusts as mixing heights will be capped (most instability remains elevated). Winds turn west Tuesday and strengthen and become frequently gusty.

Forecast Confidence and Concerns: A chaotic environment, such as what is forecasted tonight, results in a few uncertainties. Lets start with the more certain thoughts. There will be thunderstorm activity across northern MI tonight, resulting in lightning, wetting rains and gusty outflow winds. The cool lakes will temporarily hurt storm development, however background forcing and favorable mid and LL environments should keep activity alive. The coverage and strength are what could change as storms move over land. If a line of storms becomes more defined, it will become parallel with mid level flow as it reaches the shores of NW lower and have what it needs to sustain its definition as it crosses the penisula. This could result in more widespread damaging winds. CAMs don't reflect this scenario, however it depends heavily on how convection starts over WI and the western U
P
Better chances exist for convection remaining more scattered but aligned in the form of a line with damaging winds and large hail remaining an isolated threat with a handful of storms.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

High pressure builds in briefly on Wednesday with seasonable temperatures and lighter winds. Next chance for precipitation will be Thursday into portions of Friday due to a low pressure system tracking up from the S Plains-MS Valley vicinity into southern portions of MI. There are still discrepancies on the exact track of this low pressure system, for instance CMC shoves it a little farther east, along with subsequent GEPS ENS, but the GFS/GEFS & ECMWF/EPS keep the low/precip shield farther NW. Something to fine tune in the coming days but the best potential for wetting rains may reside across the southeastern half of northern MI. Much cooler Friday into the first half of this weekend after this system, and additional upper level system swings on through (showers will linger on Friday due to an upper level system adding lift). Cannot completely rule out a few snowflakes if the cold air times perfectly with some lingering moisture. Dry this weekend, with warming temperatures Sunday into early next week as heights build aloft. A warm and dry period looks increasingly likely in the extended (~May 5 and beyond) as an omega/rex block, or some combination of the two, forms over the CONUS with the high pressure centered near northern MI.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Still expecting upstream showers and thunderstorms to move west to east across the area early this morning. Uncertainty remains, both with regards to overall coverage and intensity of these storms. If storms remain organized, a few may contain very gusty winds and some hail. Shower threat continues into today, with again perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms. Gradual improvement expected from west to east this afternoon. Strong low level jet will continue to produce widespread low level wind shear early this morning, this despite maintenance of gusty south to southwest surface winds. Wind shear ends later this morning, with surface winds become northwest and remaining gusty as we head through the day. Skies clear and winds decrease this evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.