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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 322 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Chance of snow and rain. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 060026 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 726 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

High Impact Weather...None is expected.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Cloud cover, low temperatures and pops.

A weak shortwave evident on water vapor imagery over southern Ontario drops down through the flow tonight. This wave will provide a bit of lift (upward motion) while increasing low level moisture as well as increasing the low level flow. Meanwhile, it remains marginally cold enough aloft for some light lake induced snow showers to form off of Lakes Michigan and Superior, especially given model guidance showing a slightly increased flow behind the shortwave (to between 10 and 15 knots). The mean flow does veer from a north northwesterly direction this evening into the northwest overnight. This should spread light snow showers that are initially expected to be closer to the shorelines a bit farther inland overnight (perhaps to as far east as about Gaylord). Snow accumulations are expected to remain under an inch. Temperatures will be a bit tricky again tonight due to uncertainty over the amount of cloud cover with lows ranging from the mid teens across inland eastern upper and northeast lower to near 30 near the Lake Michigan shoreline. Surface winds will be fairly light at under 10 mph.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern configuration across North America consists of a trough east/ridge west...though the ridge has become more prominent (amplified) over the past 24 hours as it builds into the Prairie provinces and the northern Rockies.
Downstream trough is much more broad and tends across much of the Atlantic basin...with a train of short wave troughs stretching back to the Mississippi River. Water vapor imagery shows a couple of vorticity centers dropping down the front side of the building ridge over Manitoba and north of Lake Superior. Deep trough over the northeast Pacific directing an atmospheric river into the Pacific Northwest...though outside of that not a lot of moisture across the CONUS in an absolute sense. Broad thermal trough remains in place across the eastern half of Canada/upper Midwest/Great Lakes/New England...with warm air advection ongoing upstream ahead of building upper ridge
At the surface
1012mb clipper low crossing Illinois with high pressure in its wake over the northern/central Plains...as well as across Quebec/northeast Ontario where sub-zero cold was located earlier today.

Western ridge will expand east through midweek as remnants of Pacific trough propagate inland. Thermal trough will shift east with time allowing for warmer air to overspread the Midwest/Great Lakes through Friday. Leading piece of Pacific short wave energy still looks to come through the upper Midwest and at least clip the upper Lakes by Friday...with a more amplified split trough taking up residence across central North America which will have impacts for the weekend. Northeast-southwest oriented surface ridge will lie across the Great Lakes for Wednesday morning...sliding east during the day and allowing warm air advection/southerly boundary layer flow to kick in later in the day and even hints of a warm front crossing the state Wednesday evening. This continues into Thursday as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the northern High Plains ahead of lead Pacific short wave trough...this low eventually expected to track into northwest Ontario Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Nuisance precipitation Wednesday...warm advection precipitation Wednesday night...high temperatures Thursday/Friday.

Nuisance precipitation Wednesday: Just ahead of the low level ridge axis...some lingering cold air (925mb temperatures around -4C) and plenty of moisture around (just look upstream on the afternoon visible image loop) probably allows for some shallow lake effect snow/flurries (freezing drizzle?) Wednesday at least through midday.
Boundary layer flow gradually backs around to the southwest as the surface ridge pushes into southern Ontario...and warming temperatures should eventually bring this to an end (though between low clouds and incoming warm advection mid clouds should be mainly cloudy for the balance of the day).

Warm advection precipitation Wednesday night: Speaking of warm advection clouds...Pacific moisture emanating from the current atmospheric river will get advected eastward and across the thermal gradient that sets up from the Great Lakes west into the northern Plains. This will increase the chances for some light precipitation getting squeezed out of this axis of better moisture...starting as snow but as low levels warm may mix with or change over to rain before ending Thursday morning. Can't rule out some freezing rain especially east of the US-131 corridor where surface temperatures may lag a bit and hang near or just below freezing.

High temperatures Thursday/Friday: Bit of a warm up expected for the end of the week...though cloud cover may temper expectations so not going to go overboard here. But highs around 10 degrees above normal expected Thursday (around 40-mid 40s)...and more widespread 40s and some 50+ degree readings across parts of northern Lower for Friday.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Watching winter storm potential for the weekend.

Split trough across central North America to start the weekend with eyes on potential development in the southern branch of this trough over the central/southern Plains Saturday...and up toward the region for Sunday
Some better agreement on the concept here
and perhaps on the idea that at least Lower Michigan will start on the warmer side of the system...with colder air arriving Sunday into Monday.
But evolution of upper level features and timing of cyclogenesis still needs to come into focus...but the idea of unsettled weather for the weekend (rain/snow and potential wind on the backside)
hasn't changed and trends in precipitation probabilities for the weekend are increasing especially Sunday. But will still hold off on public messaging for now...just way to tight in the margins thermally to push the forecast one way or the other.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 726 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

MVFR CIGs are expected at times through this evening, especially near Grand Traverse Bay as low cloud spreads in from the northwest.
Mainly light snow showers will also be possible at times through tonight, primarily at TVC and mbL. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions are anticipated across most of northern Michigan Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening.

MARINE
Issued at 322 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Winds expected to increase out of the south/southwest Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night in the wake of a surface ridge axis crossing the upper Lakes from northwest to southeast. Small craft conditions likely Wednesday night within Lake Michigan nearshore zones as well as up on Whitefish Bay and perhaps adjacent to Saginaw Bay on Lake Huron.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LH...None.
LM...None.
LS...None.

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Gaylord, MI,