Sunday, November29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Parkdale, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:16PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:10 PM CST (05:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:26PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 938 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late Sunday night...
Overnight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Monday..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:202011291045;;552687 FZUS53 KAPX 290238 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 938 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ346-291045-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parkdale, MI
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location: 44.31, -86.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 290108 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 808 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 748 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

Definitely not much concern tonight as dry weather prevails. Some increasing high clouds late, with also some hints of late night/early morning stratus development across some interior areas of northern lower Michigan. Maintenance of southwest winds will keep temperatures rather mild tonight, with lows only dropping into the upper 20s to middle 30s.

NEAR TERM. (Through Sunday) Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

. mainly dry and relatively mild wx continues thru Sunday .

High Impact Weather Potential . None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Sunny skies prevail across the Northwoods this afternoon thanks to surface ridging and dry air thru much of the column. Mid and upper level clouds via a weak moisture- starved wave riding thru the Northern Great Lakes have exited east out of our area as the wave pushes east of Michigan. Temps have warmed into the 40s across our entire CWA . around 10 degrees warmer than normal for today. However SW winds strengthening to 15 to 25 mph are making conditions feel cooler the actual air temps.

As we head into tonight and Sunday..mostly clear skies will prevail thru this evening . then mid and high clouds will begin to increase overnight into Sunday morning as low pressure slides thru Lake Superior. Associated cold front will swing thru our CWA Sunday afternoon . at which time low level moisture will begin to increase and CAA will commence immediately behind the cold front. Still appears POPs will increase across Eastern Upper Michigan Sunday afternoon and early evening . but low level temp profile should stay sufficiently warm to keep any precip that does develop all rain.

Low temps tonight will cool mainly into the low to mid 30s. Expect another relatively mild late November day for Sunday . with afternoon highs again warming into the 40s across our entire CWA.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Monitoring system early this week for snowfall potential.

Pattern Synopsis:

A trough will dig south through the Midwest as a remnant cut-off upper-level low progresses across the southern Mississippi Valley Sunday night. This cut-off low will merge with the digging trough and rotate northward along the east coast within the main flow. The primary trough will become highly amplified and encompass the CONUS east of the Mississippi River through early this week. The absorbed cut-off low and additional waves that pivot through will provide favorable ascent aloft to develop and track a cyclone near 990 mb through Appalachia into the NE CONUS by Monday night. As this system becomes more vertically stacked with time and favorable advections slow, the surface low is expected to linger in the vicinity of Lake Ontario through the remainder of the short term.

Forecast/Details:

As a weak front moves across the region Sunday night, N/NNW winds trailing the boundary will lead to lake effect snow chances across portions of northern Michigan including eastern upper, NW lower south of Grand Traverse Bay, and far NE lower. Lake effect chances will diminish across eastern upper first late Monday morning, but should last until Monday evening/Monday night south of the bridge where more favorable moisture will reside. Sounding profiles display saturation past -10C with only modest inversion heights. Some accumulation is expected, but should remain near an inch or less for most through Monday.

The main focus of the short term will be the system anticipated to set up shop to the east of the area. Uncertainty still remains with the track of the system, which will have a great impact on what northern Michigan experiences early this week. However, confidence is increasing that the majority of impacts will be focused to the south and east of the forecast area. Even as the system slows and lingers to our east, it appears that it will still hold favorable moisture far enough away that we will miss out on any heavier accumulations through Tuesday. It should be noted that this could change should the expected track shift even tens of miles westward. This could mean bringing ample low-level moisture to NE lower to support lake effect/lake enhanced snowfall - potentially for an extended period if the system slows as currently anticipated. As discussed, however, recent guidance trends support a lesser impact event for our area. Otherwise, some gusty winds will be in store for the Great Lakes with system through early this week. Mild high temperatures will cool into the upper 20s and low 30s Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

Long Term. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now . Monitoring linger effects of early week system.

A messy upper-level pattern looks to evolve through the end of this upcoming week. The trough and associated surface cyclone discussed in greater detail in the short term is expected to hang around east of the area through at least Wednesday before departing to the north. A second trough looks to dig sharply to the south on the backside of this system down into the southern Great Plains, potentially becoming cut off from the main flow. Snow chances are possible mainly across far NE lower close to Lake Huron during the middle of the week before the aforementioned system leaves the region. Current confidence is that the heaviest snowfall will remain to our south and east through Wednesday, but accumulations are still possible and highly dependent on the development and track of the system, especially if the system drifts slightly to the west as some guidance hints at. Otherwise, higher pressure is expected to take over heading into the weekend, putting a pause on precip chances through that time. The next chance for rain/snow across the region may come towards the end of next weekend or early the following week as the trough following the short term system continues to progress across the country. Until then, high temperatures close to early December averages in the mid 30s are expected across northern Michigan.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 740 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

Just some passing high clouds tonight, although some hints in guidance of late night stratus development across interior areas (away form the airports). Approaching/passing cold front likely to bring MVFR cigs Sunday afternoon, especially across western locations. No significant wind issues through the period.

MARINE. Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria along much of our nearshore areas into this evening . with some diminish in winds and waves later this evening thru Sunday along our Lake Huron zones. Dry wx will persist thru tonight and Sunday morning as high pressure remain in control. Small chances of rain will develop Sunday afternoon around Whitefish Bay . with chances of lake effect rain and snow developing Sunday night into Monday as cooler air arrives behind the cold front.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Sunday for LHZ349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS . None.

UPDATE . MSB NEAR TERM . MR SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MSB MARINE . MR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 5 mi91 min SSW 15 G 19 46°F 1014.2 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 21 mi31 min SSW 17 G 22 46°F 1014.2 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 26 mi59 min SW 11 G 16 46°F 38°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI3 mi15 minSSW 410.00 miFair42°F37°F85%1013.8 hPa
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI22 mi15 minSSW 410.00 miFair43°F35°F76%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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S6S5S4CalmE3CalmSW5SW4
1 day agoW7W7W8W7W7W3W3CalmSW3SW5SW4W9W7W11W10W7W6W12W9NW12W10NW7W9W10
2 days agoE4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW8SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.