Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Parkdale, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:05AMSunset 8:39PM Monday June 21, 2021 2:56 AM CDT (07:56 UTC) Moonrise 5:06PMMoonset 2:34AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 332 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming north 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the morning. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:202106211545;;608116 FZUS53 KAPX 210732 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 332 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ346-211545-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parkdale, MI
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location: 44.31, -86.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 210729 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 329 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Impactful Weather: Scattered thunderstorms early, gusty winds, beach hazards due to rip currents, gales, frost potential

Pattern synopsis and forecast: 995mb surface low near GRB early this morning, deepening as it moves quickly into Ontario this morning. Warm front remains well to our south over southern MI, held in place by waves of convection over the southern lakes. Deformation rains across upper Michigan with just scattered showers over northwest lower. Showers will become more numerous in advance of the strong cold front over the next several hours, with scattered thunderstorms developing within modest instability axis of 500 j/kg. Given the steepening mid level lapse rates and fairly impressive shear profiles, can't rule out a few hail producing storms. But at this point, any severe potential looks limited and isolated in nature.

A period of wrap-around light rain/drizzle likely for a time this morning after fropa across at least parts of eastern upper and northwest lower, enhanced across northern lower by terrain influences. A grungy first half of the day with low clouds, light precipitation and developing gusty winds. Drier air will eventually scour out the low level moisture as the afternoon progresses with strong cold air advection driving 850mb temperatures toward 0c (is this late June??). Mild temperatures to start the day will settle into the lower to middle 50s behind the front and not move much the remainder of the day. Eastern/southeast parts of the area will remain in the mild air the longest, likely not seeing temperatures drop until the afternoon. Stronger winds aloft will be mechanically mixed to the surface with the cold air surge after fropa, resulting in gusts of 20-30 mph (locally higher over eastern upper). Quite a chilly first full day of summer!

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft builds quickly into the Great Lakes tonight, setting the stage for a cold (by late June standards) night. Interior areas will likely fall into the middle and upper 30s with frost a possibility. But there are few question marks (aren't there always). We may keep some mixing going into the early evening as winds subside. There also may not be completely clear skies throughout the night, with the potential for at least some higher clouds to sneak into western areas before morning ahead of a weak disturbance. Because of these questions and with lots of current weather, will leave a frost headline decision to the dayshift. But we will highlight frost potential in the HWO and our graphics.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

. Shower potential once again .

High impact weather potential: A few isolated thunderstorms are possible . none expected to become severe at this time.

The Great Lakes region remains in a broad upper-level trough pattern with surface high pressure centered just off to our southeast. Moisture being advected on south to southwesterly winds will produce chances of showers Tuesday and again Wednesday as a couple shortwaves move through the upper-level trough. Some rumbles of thunder will also be possible, but very isolated and just your run of the mill sort as lapse rates and shear lack any values to produce severe thresholds. The shower potential is also very slim, with mainly mist/sprinkles/very light rain expected. Forecast chances at this time are less than 25% throughout this forecast period. So although rain chances will be in the forecast, chances are you may not even see any precipitation. Winds will be westerly Tuesday with some gusts of around 20-25 mph possible. Winds become more southwesterly as aforementioned high slides a bit farther to the east and will be a bit breezy again . especially during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be fall-like Tuesday, only reaching into the upper 50s to low 60s, and warm into the low to mid 70s Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night drop to the low to mid 40s with a few of our normally "cold" locations possibly dropping into the high 30s.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Mainly broad troughing is expected to continue with a more summer- like pattern setting up as the high pressure mentioned in the previous forecast period remains off to the east and a weak developing area of low pressure to our west strengthens moisture and temperature advection on southwesterly winds. Shortwaves at different periods of the work week will produce shower chances, with the best chances of precipitation (more widespread) to be at the end of the work week and into the weekend with a possible cold front reaching the Great Lakes area. This is still a ways out and will most likely change in timing and/or location. Temperatures will continue to moderate Thursday . finally reaching into the upper 70s to mid 80s once again, but will drop back into the low 70s behind the cold front when and if it does come to fruition. Winds will be breezy throughout the long term period as the gradient remains somewhat tight.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1147 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

SHRA/TSRA tonight. Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs very late tonight/Mon morning.

An initial round of -SHRA is crossing northern lower MI, falling out of a mid-cloud deck. Still VFR. Another round of more substantial precip will develop over parts of northern Lake MI and northern lower MI. This will bring additional SHRA and perhaps TSRA overnight. Cigs/vsbys will potentially lower with this activity, and though vsbys will recover cigs won't. Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs are expected by, and shortly after, sunrise. Only gradual improvement to VFR is expected Monday.

Light southerly winds tonight. Winds veer w and nw, and become quite gusty on Monday.

MARINE. Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Deepening surface low will move quickly into Canada this morning. Behind the system, winds turn NW and become gusty today into this evening. Gale force gusts are a good bet for a good portion of the nearshore waters in northern Michigan.

Winds diminish later tonight. Some gustiness will persist, although winds/waves should be largely below headline criteria.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ016-020-021-025-031-098-099. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT from 10 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ017-018. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ349. GALE WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347-348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ346. GALE WARNING from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345. LM . GALE WARNING from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342-344-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-346. LS . GALE WARNING from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . JK SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 5 mi77 min S 1.9 G 5.1 65°F 996.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 21 mi77 min S 7 G 8.9 64°F 997 hPa
45024 26 mi37 min S 16 G 21 64°F 60°F1 ft1000.2 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 26 mi57 min S 11 G 19 69°F 62°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI3 mi61 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F63°F100%995.3 hPa
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI22 mi62 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F61°F94%995.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E4E3E4CalmSE3S65S4W6W63NW4CalmCalmE3W4CalmE4E5E5E4E33
1 day agoE4E4S3E7E4S44SE13NW7N56NW9NW8W7W8NW6CalmW3CalmCalmE3CalmE4E3
2 days agoSW7E6W15
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W13W10W5W4CalmCalmE34SE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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