Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 5:06AM||Sunset 8:31PM||Thursday June 4, 2020 11:25 PM CDT (04:25 UTC)||Moonrise 7:19PM||Moonset 4:19AM||Illumination 99%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parkdale, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 050109 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 909 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020
UPDATE. Issued at 909 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020
Overall high pressure and dry air continue to produce mainly clear skies across Northern Michigan late this evening. The few showers/storms that develop in our SE CWA this afternoon are long gone . and any residual CU has dissipated with sunset. Some high thin cirrus is driving thru our northern CWA. Much of the overnight hours will remain mostly clear . but we will see some increase in cloud cover from west to east late tonight in advance of an approaching cold front. A few showers might make it into our far western CWA very late tonight . but dry wx will prevail overnight. Low temps will fall into the 50s.
NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020
High impact weather potential: Minimal. Perhaps a few non-severe thunderstorms the remainder of this afternoon and again Friday afternoon.
Extended Pacific originated upper level jet continues to result in relatively fast, zonal flow across the northern Conus early this afternoon. Subtropical moisture plume remains locked up to our south, with weak surface high and lack of deeper moisture resulting in much of northern Michigan experiencing dry weather under mostly sunny skies. Daytime heating (current temperatures spiking well up into the 70s and lower 80s) and just enough low level moisture is resulting in a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across interior areas along and south of M-55 . supported by mean layer capes of a few hundred joules/kg per latest SPC mesoanalysis.
Weak wave/speed max racing east across Montana this afternoon will gradually amplify into the northern Lakes later Friday as it interacts with more vigorous shortwave trough rotating across Manitoba. This increasing support and quick shot of enhanced moisture will provide the impetus to drive at least the threat for a few showers into our area later tonight and Friday.
Primary forecast concerns/challenges:
Temperature/cloud trends and addressing those late night into Friday shower chances.
Other than those isolated showers and storms this afternoon, expecting dry conditions to continue through at least this evening. Theta-e ridge begins to fold into the region late tonight into Friday morning ahead of that amplifying Montana Wave. Best forcing is displaced north, and corridor of most intense mass/moisture convergence passes by to our southwest on nose of low level jet. Still, just enough forcing/deep moisture convergence to likely drive an area of showers into our area . especially during the morning hours on Friday. Still some concern for renewed convective development across portions of northeast lower Michigan Friday afternoon with surface heating/low level moisture pooling ahead of a weak surface trough/cold front. Ignoring the often overzealous guidance derived surface dewpoints and excessive surface based cape projections (progged dewpoints near 70F and sb cape well in excess of 1k joules/kg), still looks we could muster at least a few hundred joules/kg of cape . enough to warrant at least some thunder potential. Given limited instability and best deep layer shear remaining post-frontal, not expecting any severe weather concerns.
SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020
High Impact Weather Potential: Low chance for lingering showers/thunderstorms Friday night
A shortwave will be moving overhead at the beginning of the period as a cut-off upper-level low off of the California coast gets absorbed into the main flow. This looks to become a robust shortwave embedded in the longwave troughing set up over the west coast, working to amplify the pattern across the CONUS over the weekend. Specifically, this is expected to result in ridging setting up to our west through Sunday. At the surface, a weak cyclone will progress from the northern Great Lakes eastward into New Brunswick as high pressure builds from Hudson Bay into the region. The aforementioned shortwave will induce a seasonably strong cyclone in eastern Montana into Sunday while Cristobal nears landfall in the Gulf of Mexico.
There is a low chance for lingering showers and a possible rumble of thunder across our far southeastern counties near Saginaw Bay into the forecast period as a cold front swings southward through the area. However, the vast majority of precipitation is expected before the period begins. After the frontal passage, cooler temperatures are expected with northerly winds in behind. Highs on Saturday will mainly be in the 60s with a few areas across NE lower reaching into the low 70s. Some chillier overnight lows are anticipated Saturday night, dropping into the low 40s and expected to remain comfortably above frost thresholds. Temperatures are expected to warm some on Sunday as winds veer towards southerly throughout the day as the surface high pressure center shifts eastward. Aside from the lingering precip previously mentioned, a beautiful weekend appears to be on tap as high pressure and dry air will keep rain chances muted with sunny to partly sunny skies to go along with.
LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal . continuing to watch QPF potential for middle of next week.
Upper-level pattern starts out amplified Sunday night with troughing across the Rockies and ridging building over the Midwest north of a Gulf Coast trough associated with T.C. "Cristobal". This continues into the day Monday . when the ridge axis moves directly over the Great Lakes. Warm advection into the region will occur with this ridging . leading to warm temps Monday and Tuesday. By Tuesday night . a cold front should be poised off to our west . which looks to move through the region during the day Wednesday. There is potential for some rain Wednesday . given the surface cold front and its proximity to gulf moisture as Cristobal interacts with the upstream trough/cold front . though there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding that interaction. Definitely something to continue to monitor in the coming days.
AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020
High pressure will maintain mostly clear skies and VFR conditions across Northern Lower Michigan thru tonight. Low pressure will pass thru the Western Great Lakes on Friday . producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Overall conditions will remain VFR despite increasing chances of precip . but conditions may briefly drop to MVFR within some of the heavier showers and storms on Friday. Light/calm winds tonight will become N/NW at around 10 kts on Friday behind this low pressure system.
MARINE. Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020
Other than increasing shower chances late tonight, and especially on Friday, still looks like minimal marine concerns with both winds and waves remaining below advisory levels through at least Friday evening. Tightening pressure gradient Friday night into Saturday as high pressure begins to build south out of Canada will result in increasingly gusty northwest winds. Cannot completely rule out a few low end small craft advisory gusts at times on Saturday.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.
UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . MR MARINE . mb
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI||5 mi||46 min||SSE 2.9 G 5.1||66°F||1010.5 hPa|
|BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI||21 mi||46 min||S 5.1 G 8||60°F||1010.8 hPa|
Wind History for Ludington, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI||3 mi||30 min||E 3||10.00 mi||Fair||55°F||53°F||93%||1009.5 hPa|
|Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI||22 mi||31 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||59°F||49°F||71%||1009.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KMBL
Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW|
|2 days ago||S||SW||SW||S||Calm||SE||S||S||W||W||SW||W||W|
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GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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