Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Parkdale, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:14PM Friday December 13, 2019 2:35 AM CST (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 6:37PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:201912131630;;276774 Fzus53 Kapx 130820 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 320 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-131630- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 320 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of drizzle. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less in the afternoon.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of freezing drizzle. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of drizzle, snow showers and freezing drizzle. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely, chance of freezing drizzle and drizzle. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parkdale, MI
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location: 44.31, -86.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 130805 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 305 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Impactful weather: Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Broad/shallow upper troughing was focused in the center of the country early this morning, bounded by shallow ridging on the coasts. On the forward flank of this troughing, weak low pressure was gently drifting NE along a stalled out frontal boundary through the western and nrn Great Lakes. Forcing was weak with this sfc low/front, with loads of dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere. In the low levels however, there is plenty of moisture, and all stuck under a strong inversion and in temperature warmer than -10C. This has led to substantial low clouds, with many sfc observations across NW lower/eastern upper showing reduced visibilities from fog/mist/areas drizzle and freezing drizzle.

Heading through the day, the weak sfc low will continue to drift NE very slowly through the day, with the frontal boundary showing minimal movement through the night. Low level moisture, per fcst soundings, remains substantive at least into this evening, before there are signs of shallowing out a touch overnight. Without much movement of the frontal boundary through tonight, the reduced VSBYS and potential for light fog/mist/drizzle and freezing drizzle will likely carry on across NW lower/eastern upper. Not sure of the impact of potential freezing drizzle, with relatively minimal observations at or below freezing, outside of eastern upper and far NW lower. Will leave this area in the advisory, and trim southern counties out.

High temperatures will mostly be in the low to mid 30s, with lows mostly in hte mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Light drizzle and lake effect .

Synopsis/Forecast: The weekend will feature general troughing across the Great Lakes region. One current wave is currently over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This drops south on Friday before pivoting over Lake Superior Saturday. This combined with a weak latent PV- anomaly that will be moving across the UP by Saturday will aid in renewed snow chances late, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning. Meanwhile a southeastern wave will be spinning up a strong surface low in the mid-Atlantic. This northeast low combined with surface high pressure sliding through the northern Plains will create gusty northwest winds Saturday into Sunday morning.

Details: After some very slight freezing drizzle chances overnight, Saturday morning dawns cloudy and quiet for the area with light winds. We will be between two moisture axis early on, one far to the southeast with the developing nor'easter, and another incoming from the northwest ahead of the aformentioned northern wave. Most guidance has very shallow moisture in the lowest 3 to 4 kft which slowly increases from northwest to southeast through the morning hours. Initially I think the chance for sensible weather in the morning will be quiet low. However there may be a weak surface boundary draped from Iowa/southern Wisconsin up through lake Michigan into eastern Ontario. This may be enough to produce some weak low level convergence, enough to produce some flurries/freezing drizzle in ern upper. As the mid levels cool in the late afternoon and evening more ice nuclei allows for more flakes to get mixed in. Also winds will swing around to the northwest and increase in gustiness in response to the tightening pressure gradient between the northeast system and the inbound surface high.

Overall accumulations will be very light through the day and night as forcing is rather weak. DeltaT's start the day at 10 C at most, and very slowly increase into the mid or upper teens through the day. Inversion heights also struggle to get above 2500 ft. Nonetheless slight snow chances will persist overnight, especially in northwest flow belts. Even though Sunday brings surface high pressure, drying midlevel, and weaker winds, we'll have increasing overlake instability with colder midlevel air dropping in from Ontario. So will keep lake effect chances in.

Friday's 'mild' airmass remains over us on Saturday (at least until northwest winds can kick in), leaving highs mainly in the low to mid 30s. CAA kicks in Sunday, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. Highs will be a good ten degrees cooler. The surface high passing overhead Sunday night will bring cold overnight lows, some 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

High Impact Weather: Minimal

Monday most areas remain dry and quiet under weak surface ridging. The next system moves up the Ohio Valley Monday night, but any significant precipitation from this looks to miss us to our southeast. Through midweek multiple waves will each bring increased chances of lake effect, mainly in the northwest flow belts. Also near midweek looks like another blast of Arctic air that drops down toward the Great Lakes from just west of Hudson Bay. 850mb temps will be -20 or colder, producing more overnight lows in the single digits. Another clipper will bring another shot of widespread snow on Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1145 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Low pressure currently centered over southern Wisconsin will track NW to the Straits area and will then stall over our region thru Friday. Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle will impact much of far Northern/NW Lower Michigan overnight as mid level moisture is stripped away once the low reaches the Straits. Overall conditions will remain MVFR/IFR thru the forecast period as ample low level moisture remains in place. Surface winds will remain from the south AOB 10 kts thru Friday.

MARINE. Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Advisory level winds will come to an end by daybreak across portions of Lake Huron, as the pressure gradient is becoming more and more loose with time, as weak low pressure drifts NE through the western and nrn Great Lakes. Cold advection sets in late tonight into tomorrow, with winds ramping back up to advisory levels Saturday night into Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ016>018-021>023-027-028-032-033-086>088-095>099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST early this morning for LHZ348-349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST early this morning for LMZ323-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . MR MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 5 mi56 min SSW 19 G 23 41°F 1014.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 21 mi56 min SSW 18 G 23 40°F 1014.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 26 mi60 min SSW 14 G 19 41°F 33°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI3 mi40 minE 310.00 miOvercast35°F33°F93%1015.3 hPa
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI22 mi41 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist34°F32°F96%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBL

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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SW6E4CalmCalmE3E3
1 day agoW16
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2 days agoNW15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.