Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Willsboro, NY
December 10, 2023 9:52 PM EST (02:52 UTC)
Sunrise 7:16AM Sunset 4:14PM Moonrise 5:47AM Moonset 3:23PM
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 110235 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 935 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong storm will impact the region tonight through Monday, bringing rain this evening changing to a heavy wet snowfall overnight. Travel will become very difficult, especially after midnight into Monday, including the Monday morning commute.
Scattered to numerous power outages are possible, with the heaviest snowfall occurring over the central and northern Green Mountains of Vermont. Quieter weather with near normal temperatures return for midweek.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 924 PM EST Sunday...No changes were made with this update.
Starting to finally see snow at locations such as KSLK, and note the RWIS site on Rte 242 at Westfield (courtesy of VT AOT) is reporting slushy road conditions. Temperatures are hovering in the mid/upper 30s over northern sections, while upper 30s/low 40s is more common heading down into the southern Champlain Valley and lower CT River Valley.
We're also starting to watch the 00z guidance roll in and it seems the slight eastward trend seems to be continuing. On the 3km NAM, the best frontogenesis has likewise tightened and shifted eastward. The result has been a downward trend in progged total snowfall, particularly at lower elevations. Also seeing a similar shift toward lesser snow amounts on the incoming HRRR. Given the incomplete 00z model suite, have left the snow forecast alone for now, especially since the bulk of the event hasn't even started yet. But subsequent shifts will need to monitor trends closely as we head toward Monday morning.
Previous discussion...No changes to the winter storm warnings/advisory or flood watch with this package. Overall system remains on track with just some minor trends noted in the 12z guidance, which combined with integrating our latest high resolution data has resulted in a sharpening of the snowfall gradient acrs our region from the valleys to mtns.
Scattered to numerous power outages possible, especially below 1500 feet, along with a very hazardous Monday morning commute with moderate to heavy snow falling and sfc vis below 1/2sm at times.
A challenging fcst continues especially with regards to snowfall fcst and associated sharp elevational depend gradient, given marginal temps here in the valleys, but mountains will do very well again.
Water vapor highlights deep warm conveyor belt of rich moisture advecting acrs the eastern CONUS, while potent s/w energy is rounding the trof base over the southern Appalachian Mtns. This energy, combined with rrq quad of 25h jet of 160 knots, wl enhanced sfc low pres over eastern NC by this evening. Its this energy moving directly overhead on Monday morning, that results in a period of moderate to heavy snowfall for most of us. Meanwhile, sfc low pres is progged to interact with a sharpening thermal boundary moving acrs northern NY/central PA attm, while deepening over SNE on Monday morning.
The 12z guidance has trended slightly eastward with the sfc low pres track along with deepening the associated area of low pres a bit later, which results in a tightening of qpf and a slight shift in the heaviest axis of precip. However, dynamics with this system are very strong and moisture content is near climo max, based on ALY 12z sounding of 0.90" pw value, which is near the daily max of the day of 1.0". Also, another minor trend in guidance has been for the cooler air aloft to advect into our region quicker, which is supported by LAPS/RAP analysis of the 0C 850mb isotherm already in the SLV. Have timing of rain changing to snow occurring around 00Z dacks and btwn 00z-02z northern Greens with snow levels lowering thru the overnight hours.
As potent s/w energy over the se CONUS moves directly overhead, combined with axis of strong 850-500mb fgen forcing placed from se to nw acrs our cwa, we are expecting a period of moderate to heavy snowfall, with rates exceeding 1 inch likely. The timing looks to be btwn 07z and 15z Monday, based on progged s/w timing and jet dynamics. This should quickly cool column and allow a heavy wet snowfall with vis btwn 1/4 and 1/2sm to occur for several hours on Monday morning, acrs most of our fa. The duration of the very strong lift/dynamics is relatively short, as flow is progressive, so thinking window of heaviest snowfall accumulation is 3 to 6 hours from south to north.
Snowfall continues to be very tricky, especially locally in the CPV, given the warm Lake Champlain water, 2m temps hovering near 32/33F for the entire event, warm ground temps, which results in lower ratios and challenging accumulations rates. Have lowered some accumulations acrs the CPV to highlight the extremely sharp snowfall gradient expected from several slushy inches near the water to 5 to 8 inches at BTV airport to 7 to 14 inches Underhill/Jericho.
Elsewhere, the western extent of the heaviest precip over the dacks is tricky, but given higher ratios, especially over the trrn, lower qpf amounts should result in reaching low end warning criteria. The SLV struggles to see much snow accumulation given the warm bl temps and lack of strong dynamical forcing, but wl keep advisory going for now.
Central/northern Greens still look to be the bullseye of heaviest snowfall totals of 12 to 18 inches, especially above 1500 feet, with lighter amounts as you travel toward the immediate CT River Valley. Lows tonight range from the mid 20s summits to mid 30s warmest valleys.
As system quickly races off toward eastern Canada on Monday aftn, expect areal coverage of precip to become trrn focused over the northern Dacks and central/northern Greens aft 18z. The lighter precip rates here in the valleys with temps warmer a degree or two, should result in a mix of rain/snow showers with improving road conditions by the evening commute. Given the slight shift in track, the backside wind component is not as strong for Monday aftn, with localized gusts mainly in the 20 to 30 mph. Snow showers taper off in the mtns on Monday night with cooling temps in the mid teens to mid 20s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 326 PM EST Sunday...A weak ridge of high pressure will quickly transit over our CWA during the day on Tuesday. Outside of some possible lake effect snow in the Saint Lawrence Valley, we won't see daytime precipitation. The story changes quickly as the ridge moves to our east and a cold front comes into Northern New York and Vermont in the overnight hours. Widespread snowfall totals will remain less than an inch, but the front will provide the thermodynamics necessary to generate a few heavy snow bands. The latest model runs have backed down the CAPE making a full blown squall less likely.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 326 PM EST Sunday...An upper level low off the Canadian maritimes will set the plate on Wednesday for a little more snow accumulation along the upslope areas. Once again, the conditions only favor an inch or so. Wednesday night and Thursday will remain quiet as we transition between fronts. The final system of this forecast period will begins to take shape Friday as another cold front sweeps through the longwave trough to our north and east. A low pressure system forming in the midwest will ensure a tighter pressure gradient and allow for some more nickel and dime accumulation with a similar setup to Tuesday's.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Monday...After some brief MVFR/VFR early in the TAF period, overall expect IFR/LIFR to prevail through much of the next 24 hours as widespread rain transitions to snow. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, generally 06z-14z, and visibilities 1/2sm. Some improvement with lessening snowfall rates after 14z, mainly at valley locations. Ceilings will lower to below 1000 ft at all terminals by 03z, and remain so through at least 18z Monday, may lift to 1500 ft at valley locations by 20z.
Most sites currently seeing north winds around 5 kt, with KMSS/KSLK/KRUT reporting southwest/southeast winds, respectively. All terminals to turn to the north/northwest by 03z, and remain so through the remainder of the forecast period.
Winds will remain fairly light from the northwest through the overnight and morning hours but become gusty at 20 to 25 knots by 16Z Monday.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance FZRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
Sunday 1238 PM UPDATE...The latest River Forecast Center forecasts are now cresting all rivers below flood stage with the exception of the Otter Creek at Center Rutland, which is forecast to crest at 8.0 feet (Minor Flood Stage) Monday. The Flood Watch remains in effect for Rutland and Windsor Counties in Vermont through Monday afternoon where precipitation is expected to stay as rain longer and combined with snow melt could cause minor issues.
CLIMATE
Record daily precipitation is possible on both Sunday and Monday. Below are current daily records that may be broken based on the current forecast:
December 10: KBTV: 1.10/1938 KMPV: 0.93/1957 KPBG: 0.69/2004 KMSS: 0.86/1953 KSLK: 0.73/1953
December 11: KBTV: 1.43/1952 KMPV: 0.96/1952 KPBG: 0.81/1952
EQUIPMENT
The Burke Mountain NOAA Weather Radio, WWG-50, broadcasting on a frequency of 162.425 MHz is experiencing technical difficulties and is currently off the air. Technicians have advised that parts are needed to conduct repairs, with an estimated return to service on Tuesday, December 12th.
Please refer to local media and commercial radio for the latest weather information. The following nearby NOAA Weather Radio transmitters that can be used include Mount Ascutney on a frequency of 162.475 MHz and Mount Mansfield broadcasting on a frequency of 162.400 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ021.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ001>011- 016>020.
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for VTZ011-019>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ026-087.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ027>031-034- 035.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 935 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong storm will impact the region tonight through Monday, bringing rain this evening changing to a heavy wet snowfall overnight. Travel will become very difficult, especially after midnight into Monday, including the Monday morning commute.
Scattered to numerous power outages are possible, with the heaviest snowfall occurring over the central and northern Green Mountains of Vermont. Quieter weather with near normal temperatures return for midweek.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 924 PM EST Sunday...No changes were made with this update.
Starting to finally see snow at locations such as KSLK, and note the RWIS site on Rte 242 at Westfield (courtesy of VT AOT) is reporting slushy road conditions. Temperatures are hovering in the mid/upper 30s over northern sections, while upper 30s/low 40s is more common heading down into the southern Champlain Valley and lower CT River Valley.
We're also starting to watch the 00z guidance roll in and it seems the slight eastward trend seems to be continuing. On the 3km NAM, the best frontogenesis has likewise tightened and shifted eastward. The result has been a downward trend in progged total snowfall, particularly at lower elevations. Also seeing a similar shift toward lesser snow amounts on the incoming HRRR. Given the incomplete 00z model suite, have left the snow forecast alone for now, especially since the bulk of the event hasn't even started yet. But subsequent shifts will need to monitor trends closely as we head toward Monday morning.
Previous discussion...No changes to the winter storm warnings/advisory or flood watch with this package. Overall system remains on track with just some minor trends noted in the 12z guidance, which combined with integrating our latest high resolution data has resulted in a sharpening of the snowfall gradient acrs our region from the valleys to mtns.
Scattered to numerous power outages possible, especially below 1500 feet, along with a very hazardous Monday morning commute with moderate to heavy snow falling and sfc vis below 1/2sm at times.
A challenging fcst continues especially with regards to snowfall fcst and associated sharp elevational depend gradient, given marginal temps here in the valleys, but mountains will do very well again.
Water vapor highlights deep warm conveyor belt of rich moisture advecting acrs the eastern CONUS, while potent s/w energy is rounding the trof base over the southern Appalachian Mtns. This energy, combined with rrq quad of 25h jet of 160 knots, wl enhanced sfc low pres over eastern NC by this evening. Its this energy moving directly overhead on Monday morning, that results in a period of moderate to heavy snowfall for most of us. Meanwhile, sfc low pres is progged to interact with a sharpening thermal boundary moving acrs northern NY/central PA attm, while deepening over SNE on Monday morning.
The 12z guidance has trended slightly eastward with the sfc low pres track along with deepening the associated area of low pres a bit later, which results in a tightening of qpf and a slight shift in the heaviest axis of precip. However, dynamics with this system are very strong and moisture content is near climo max, based on ALY 12z sounding of 0.90" pw value, which is near the daily max of the day of 1.0". Also, another minor trend in guidance has been for the cooler air aloft to advect into our region quicker, which is supported by LAPS/RAP analysis of the 0C 850mb isotherm already in the SLV. Have timing of rain changing to snow occurring around 00Z dacks and btwn 00z-02z northern Greens with snow levels lowering thru the overnight hours.
As potent s/w energy over the se CONUS moves directly overhead, combined with axis of strong 850-500mb fgen forcing placed from se to nw acrs our cwa, we are expecting a period of moderate to heavy snowfall, with rates exceeding 1 inch likely. The timing looks to be btwn 07z and 15z Monday, based on progged s/w timing and jet dynamics. This should quickly cool column and allow a heavy wet snowfall with vis btwn 1/4 and 1/2sm to occur for several hours on Monday morning, acrs most of our fa. The duration of the very strong lift/dynamics is relatively short, as flow is progressive, so thinking window of heaviest snowfall accumulation is 3 to 6 hours from south to north.
Snowfall continues to be very tricky, especially locally in the CPV, given the warm Lake Champlain water, 2m temps hovering near 32/33F for the entire event, warm ground temps, which results in lower ratios and challenging accumulations rates. Have lowered some accumulations acrs the CPV to highlight the extremely sharp snowfall gradient expected from several slushy inches near the water to 5 to 8 inches at BTV airport to 7 to 14 inches Underhill/Jericho.
Elsewhere, the western extent of the heaviest precip over the dacks is tricky, but given higher ratios, especially over the trrn, lower qpf amounts should result in reaching low end warning criteria. The SLV struggles to see much snow accumulation given the warm bl temps and lack of strong dynamical forcing, but wl keep advisory going for now.
Central/northern Greens still look to be the bullseye of heaviest snowfall totals of 12 to 18 inches, especially above 1500 feet, with lighter amounts as you travel toward the immediate CT River Valley. Lows tonight range from the mid 20s summits to mid 30s warmest valleys.
As system quickly races off toward eastern Canada on Monday aftn, expect areal coverage of precip to become trrn focused over the northern Dacks and central/northern Greens aft 18z. The lighter precip rates here in the valleys with temps warmer a degree or two, should result in a mix of rain/snow showers with improving road conditions by the evening commute. Given the slight shift in track, the backside wind component is not as strong for Monday aftn, with localized gusts mainly in the 20 to 30 mph. Snow showers taper off in the mtns on Monday night with cooling temps in the mid teens to mid 20s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 326 PM EST Sunday...A weak ridge of high pressure will quickly transit over our CWA during the day on Tuesday. Outside of some possible lake effect snow in the Saint Lawrence Valley, we won't see daytime precipitation. The story changes quickly as the ridge moves to our east and a cold front comes into Northern New York and Vermont in the overnight hours. Widespread snowfall totals will remain less than an inch, but the front will provide the thermodynamics necessary to generate a few heavy snow bands. The latest model runs have backed down the CAPE making a full blown squall less likely.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 326 PM EST Sunday...An upper level low off the Canadian maritimes will set the plate on Wednesday for a little more snow accumulation along the upslope areas. Once again, the conditions only favor an inch or so. Wednesday night and Thursday will remain quiet as we transition between fronts. The final system of this forecast period will begins to take shape Friday as another cold front sweeps through the longwave trough to our north and east. A low pressure system forming in the midwest will ensure a tighter pressure gradient and allow for some more nickel and dime accumulation with a similar setup to Tuesday's.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Monday...After some brief MVFR/VFR early in the TAF period, overall expect IFR/LIFR to prevail through much of the next 24 hours as widespread rain transitions to snow. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, generally 06z-14z, and visibilities 1/2sm. Some improvement with lessening snowfall rates after 14z, mainly at valley locations. Ceilings will lower to below 1000 ft at all terminals by 03z, and remain so through at least 18z Monday, may lift to 1500 ft at valley locations by 20z.
Most sites currently seeing north winds around 5 kt, with KMSS/KSLK/KRUT reporting southwest/southeast winds, respectively. All terminals to turn to the north/northwest by 03z, and remain so through the remainder of the forecast period.
Winds will remain fairly light from the northwest through the overnight and morning hours but become gusty at 20 to 25 knots by 16Z Monday.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance FZRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
Sunday 1238 PM UPDATE...The latest River Forecast Center forecasts are now cresting all rivers below flood stage with the exception of the Otter Creek at Center Rutland, which is forecast to crest at 8.0 feet (Minor Flood Stage) Monday. The Flood Watch remains in effect for Rutland and Windsor Counties in Vermont through Monday afternoon where precipitation is expected to stay as rain longer and combined with snow melt could cause minor issues.
CLIMATE
Record daily precipitation is possible on both Sunday and Monday. Below are current daily records that may be broken based on the current forecast:
December 10: KBTV: 1.10/1938 KMPV: 0.93/1957 KPBG: 0.69/2004 KMSS: 0.86/1953 KSLK: 0.73/1953
December 11: KBTV: 1.43/1952 KMPV: 0.96/1952 KPBG: 0.81/1952
EQUIPMENT
The Burke Mountain NOAA Weather Radio, WWG-50, broadcasting on a frequency of 162.425 MHz is experiencing technical difficulties and is currently off the air. Technicians have advised that parts are needed to conduct repairs, with an estimated return to service on Tuesday, December 12th.
Please refer to local media and commercial radio for the latest weather information. The following nearby NOAA Weather Radio transmitters that can be used include Mount Ascutney on a frequency of 162.475 MHz and Mount Mansfield broadcasting on a frequency of 162.400 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ021.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ001>011- 016>020.
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for VTZ011-019>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ026-087.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ027>031-034- 035.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT | 14 sm | 24 min | N 12 | 9 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 39°F | 36°F | 87% | 29.82 |
| KPBG PLATTSBURGH INTL,NY | 24 sm | 59 min | NNW 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 39°F | 36°F | 87% | 29.83 |
Wind History from BTV
(wind in knots)
Burlington, VT,
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