Willsboro, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Willsboro, NY

June 13, 2024 4:31 PM EDT (20:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:05 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM
Moonrise 12:12 PM   Moonset 12:59 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 131928 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 328 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front moving through the Great Lakes this afternoon will bring a period of showers and possibly thunderstorms to our region late tonight into Friday with localized stronger storms possible in far southern Vermont early Friday afternoon. Cool and dry air filters in for the weekend, but by Monday, warm and moist air will shift back into the region. Temperatures warming into the upper 80s to mid 90s is expected by the middle of next week. In conjunction with high dewpoints and warm overnight conditions, heat impacts are likely next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 326 PM EDT Thursday...The forecast remains on track for tonight through Friday night with the main feature of interest being a cold front currently moving through the Great Lakes region. CAMs have been very consistent showing showers and embedded thunder associated with the front won't move into the St. Lawrence Valley until close to midnight, then become fragmented and scattered as it moves eastward through the remainder of the night into Friday morning.
With the loss of daytime heating and precip arrival time, along with the best dynamics and cold pool shifting north of the region, the threat for strong storms is low during the overnight hours despite a strong low-level jet of 40-50kts moving across the region. As such, gusty winds are likely the biggest threat which will continue up to 25 mph in the broader valleys overnight with the potential for brief gusts greater than 35 mph along the frontal passage, mainly across northern New York.

As the front shifts through Vermont during the daylight hours Friday, a short window will exist in the early to mid-afternoon hours for some stronger storms to develop across central and southern zones where up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE and about 40-45 knots of 0-6km shear may exist. As the previous forecaster mentioned, the intensity of storms will be conditional on clearing, and SPC's depiction of a slight risk outlook south of our forecast area and a marginal risk across Rutland and Windsor Counties of Vermont continues to be reasonable. Any activity that does develop will wane after sunset with the loss of surface heating and the front shifting away from the region, and a quiet and cool night is on tap with lows falling into the 40s and 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 326 PM EDT Thursday...The weekend weather will be gorgeous, featuring highs in the 60s and 70s, and low humidity. There will also be abundant sunshine and relatively light winds. Clear skies and calm winds overnight will allow temperatures to drop quickly.
Lows Saturday night will mostly be in the 40s, but temperatures should reach the 30s in the coldest hollows. Enjoy the cooler weather while it lasts because significant heat will build in next week.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 326 PM EDT Thursday...The first major heat event of the year looks to occur next week, starting Tuesday and continuing for the rest of the week. High temperatures above 90 degrees and increasing humidity will likely cause apparent temperatures to be well in the 90s, particularly in the broad valleys. The region will be on the northern periphery of an unusually strong ridge. Some model guidance brings the center of it to 600 dm at 500 mb. Southwest flow will prevent any cooling marine impacts from the Atlantic and increased humidity will help lows stay elevated overnight. Temperatures in the valleys will likely not fall out of the 70s Tuesday night onward, preventing much overnight relief from the heat. While there is high confidence of very warm temperatures, the exact magnitude of the heat is still uncertain. It looks like there will be a couple of shortwaves that will ride along the top of the ridge. With sufficient instability from the airmass, it would not take much to initiate some convection to keep afternoon temperatures a little lower. Also, with westerly flow aloft from being on the northern edge of the ridge, it is possible that debris from upstream convection over the Great Lakes could stream into the area provide some cloud cover. While this would limit high temperatures, it would also increase overnight lows. However, despite these uncertainties, there is high confidence in a significant heat event and the NBM seems very reasonable in giving an 80-90 percent probability of highs exceeding 90 in the broad valleys. However, the higher end probabilities where it gives the Burlington area a 40-50 percent chance of reaching 100 are likely unrealistic. Overall, this looks to be a relatively long- duration significant heat event and it would beneficial to take precautions early.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail across the region through 06Z before showers and embedded thunder roll through with ceilings lowering to MVFR from around 09-15Z at KMSS/KSLK/KEFK/KRUT. Visibility within the showers should generally remain VFR with brief periods of MVFR possible. Gusty winds will likely be the main concern through the period, with SSW gusts up to 25kts at KMSS/KSLK/KBTV this afternoon through much of the night, and the potential for a brief period of 25-35kts at KMSS around 06Z, and potentially KSLK around 08Z along a frontal passage. LLWS is likely aloft at all terminals through the overnight hours as a strong low level jet of 40-50kt traverses the region.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
As of 326 PM EDT Thursday...A brief period of wind gusts up to 25 knots is expected across the broad lake waters tonight prompting the issuance of a lake wind advisory. Waves will likely build to 1 to 3 feet, and caution is urged for small craft venturing out overnight.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 14 sm37 minS 16G2210 smMostly Cloudy82°F55°F40%29.83
KPBG PLATTSBURGH INTL,NY 24 sm38 minS 16G2410 smOvercast79°F57°F48%29.80
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Burlington, VT,




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