Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:53PM Saturday January 25, 2020 10:23 PM EST (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:02AMMoonset 6:38PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 260308 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1008 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. A slow-moving low pressure system will bring periods of moderate rain to the North Country this evening into the overnight hours, along with localized pockets of freezing rain and sleet across central and eastern Vermont and far northern New York. Locally gusty winds upwards of 40 mph will also be possible through this evening along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. As winds turn westerly on Sunday into Sunday night, there will be potential for snow showers across the higher terrain, with several inches likely across the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. Quiet weather returns by mid-week with seasonable late January conditions anticipated.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 1008 PM EST Saturday . Have gone ahead and cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for northern New York. Threat for freezing rain has come to an end and forecast soundings overnight suggest thermal profile more conducive to rain and snow . which has been the main weather across northern New York the last few hours. There will likely be some additional snowfall over northern New York overnight with amounts in the dusting to two inch range.

Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for areas east of the Green Mountains in Vermont as areal coverage of precipitation is greater across this area for the next few hours. Most places have been reporting rain and snow tonight, but untreated secondary roads have been reported to be icy. Any additional freezing rain will be spotty and light east of the Greens in Vermont with a dusting to two inches of additional snow possible overnight. Thus looking at slippery travel conditions continuing and thus the advisory continues.

Previous Discussion . Mid-level closed low remains centered over lower Michigan this afternoon, with well-organized warm conveyor belt extending from south of Long Island north-northwestward into e-central and northern NY. This conveyor belt is immediate east of an occulded front, and system has a negative tilt per GOES-16 IR imagery. Seeing very strong sely 850mb winds associated with a low-level jet, which is expected to increase to 60-70kt across s-central/central VT by 00Z this evening. Have seen surface gusts as high as 41kt at Mendon and 34kt at KRUT at 1816Z. As warm conveyors shifts ewd and precipitation develops eastward across VT through early evening, should see wind gusts settle back into the 25-30kt range along the western slopes of the Green Mountains as PBL stabilizes.

Localized areas of mixed wintry precipitation remain a concern this evening into tonight. The 2-m temperatures remain right at 32F across St. Lawrence and portions of northern Franklin NY counties, with intermittent periods of FZRA noted in area observations. May also see periods of sleet, and then a trend toward intermittent snow/sleet after midnight as winds shift westerly and vertical temperature profiles cool during the pre- dawn hours. Continued with the idea of up to 0.1" ice accumulation across the St. Lawrence Valley, and the Winter Weather Advisory continues there through 4am Sunday. Sfc temperatures are quite marginal this evening 32-34F, so travel concerns should be limited to untreated surfaces.

Same situation across central/eastern VT, where the Winter Weather Advisory continues through 4AM Sunday. Most locations in VT are already above freezing, but seeing a few obs right at 32F on the immediate eastern slopes of the Greens around Bethel and Brookfield and adjacent points. Again, any icy travel concerns will be limited and confined to untreated surfaces, but temperatures remain close enough to freezing to warrant continuing the Winter Weather Advisory. We'll continue to monitor trends there. Meanwhile, in the Champlain Valley, downslope sely winds and low-level WAA will keep temps in the mid-upper 30s. A few ice pellets may mix in at times, but looking at no accumulation and mostly a rain event.

Precipitation will be moderate at times this evening as best PW axis translates ewd across the North Country. In terms of StormTotalRainfall amts, mostly occurring through 09Z tonight, looking at 0.4 to 0.6" in most locations, but locally up to 0.9" across the Green Mtns and the higher peaks of the Adirondacks.

Mid-level dry slot moves across late tonight through Sunday morning. Should see low overcast lingering with passage of the occlusion, but precipitation will be limited to isolated light snow showers. However, next shortwave trough in NWLY flow and deeper saturation bringing better chances for snow showers Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. This will be especially true across the northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mtns with increased WNWLY upslope flow conditions. We have increased PoPs to 70-90% Sunday night across the higher terrain. It appears that 2-4" of snowfall will be possible late Sunday afternooon through Sunday night, and locally around 5" for Jay Peak and the western slopes of the Adirondacks. Highs on Sunday generally in the low-mid 30s, with lows Sunday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 334 PM EST Saturday . Upslope snow showers are expected to continue across the western slopes of the Green and Adirondacks on Monday with a series of low amplitude shortwaves traversing the northwesterly flow aloft. Moisture will gradually wane throughout the day on Monday and especially on Tuesday as drier air begins to work south into the North Country. The tricky part to the forecast will be for the potential of some blocked flow in the Champlain Valley on Monday which may allow some of the snow showers to back into western Addison and western Chittenden but the main focus will continue to be on the western slopes. Our snow ratios on Monday will not be on the fluffy side as the cold air advection is weak 850 mb temps only dropping to about -10 degrees C by Tuesday morning. The ratios will trend from 12:1 Monday morning to about 18:1 by Tuesday morning which should allow for an additional 2-4 inches of snow along the western slopes with little to none in the deeper valleys. Temperatures on Monday will also be on the warm side with many locations at or above freezing expect for elevations above 2000 ft which will also inhibit snow accumulations in the deeper valleys. Tuesday will be much cooler as a strong push of cooler air dives south with highs climbing into the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 334 PM EST Saturday . Strong surface high pressure will build south across the North Country on Wednesday and bring clearing skies and light and variable winds. This high pressure system will remain entrenched across the region through the first half of Saturday and will help usher in the return of near normal high temperatures. Lows, on the other hand, will likely be below normal as we have some nice radiational cooling nights ahead underneath the 1025+ mb high. Lows will be the coldest Wednesday night as temps drop to the single digits above and below zero and will slowly moderate as we head toward the end of the work week. The next chance of precipitation doesn't occur until the upcoming weekend where there is a lot of uncertainty with the track of a low tracking up the east coast. There is the potential for a good storm system but also the potential this low tracks well off to our east with no impacts. Stay tuned in the coming days for updates regarding this system.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Through 00Z Monday . Widespread precipitation will continue through 04z and then begin to gradually taper off between 04z and 12z. The majority of the precipitation will be in the form of rain or snow and visibilities will be in the 1 to 3 mile range through 04z and then in the 3 to 6 mile range between 04z and 12z. At the same time ceilings will be in the MVFR category but lower into the IFR and LIFR categories after 04z and persist through 14z. Ceilings will improve into the MVFR category after 14z and continue right through the remainder of the period. After 14z visibilities will improve into the MVFR and VFR categories as scattered snow showers are expected. Low level wind shear will continue through 04z over much of the area in response to southeast winds at 2000 feet in the 40 to 50 knot range. Winds will taper off after 04z with speeds generally under 10 knots for the remainder of the period.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-012-018-019. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Banacos NEAR TERM . Evenson/Banacos SHORT TERM . Clay LONG TERM . Clay AVIATION . Evenson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi29 minNW 70.75 miLight Snow Rain Fog/Mist33°F30°F92%1008.2 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi30 minN 42.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F32°F100%1008.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

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Last 24hrS4S4S6CalmS6SW4S5S6S8SE4S5S5S7S8SE12E7E6E5E8E4S5NW3NW5NW7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE4NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4
2 days agoS12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.