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FXUS61 KBTV 031143 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 643 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dreary weather with drizzle and fog will continue this morning as a stationary front lingers across the region. A stronger system is expected to impact the region this afternoon through Monday. Several inches of heavy, wet snow are expected for much of the region except for the lowest valleys. Conditions will trend cooler, with intermittent periods of showers as we head into mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 545 AM EST Sunday...No major changes to the forecast at present. Freezing fog and freezing drizzle is now being observed. Plattsburgh has even picked up 0.03" of ice on its sensor as batch of spotty showers make their way up the Champlain Valley. So the SPS is in good shape. Everything seems on track at the moment
Previous discussion below

Two different weather hazards are expected today into tonight.

Chronologically, the first is the freezing fog or freezing drizzle potential that still remains along the international border. An SPS has been issued through 14z to cover the potential. Pavement temps are right around 31 to 33 degrees. Most locations will likely be too warm, but still, exercise caution on bridges and overpasses being careful not to take corners too fast.

The second hazard is the upcoming heavy, wet snow potential this afternoon into Monday morning. Several changes have taken place. One change is the addition of sleet and freezing rain into the forecast, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley. For that, northern St.
Lawrence and Franklin Counties have been added into the Winter Weather Advisory for that potential. The next change is cutting headline back to 15z (10 AM) Monday. Examining the snowfall forecast for Monday, additional accumulations were only an inch, and with temperatures warming above freezing, it was difficult to consider potential impacts lasting much longer than late Monday morning.
Finally, the last change is that Essex and Orleans of Vermont and western Clinton County of New York have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. These areas still only come close to reaching warning criteria, but based on potential impacts of heavy, wet snow and the higher end snowfall potential in these areas, decided to make that switch.

For travel, expect the most difficult travel time this evening.
Heavy snow could begin falling as early as 6 PM tonight through about 6 AM tomorrow. For utilities, power outage potential will be highest in eastern Vermont, and parts of the northeastern slopes of the Adirondacks Sunday night into Monday.

This forecast remains challenging. There has been a slight southward shift in model guidance, lending the idea of a bit better snow potential. However, high resolution guidance also indicates higher sleet potential along the periphery of the rain snow line as well.
Two waves of precipitation are on the table. There's a wave of 700- 500hPa FGEN that will lift north as a coastal low begins to develop.
This will begin spreading light to moderate precipitation across the area. Warm temperatures and moderate rates will initially limit snow to higher elevations. As low pressure intensifies offshore, it will begin to drive cool easterly winds across eastern Vermont, making them likely the first to see precipitation transition to snow. By mid afternoon, low pressure will intensify over Lake Ontario while a potent 190kt 250hPa jet and vigorous upper shortwave lift into the region. Lapse rates above 500hPa range from 7 to 9 C while a strong band of 850-700hPa FGEN moves overhead. This will likely drive some intense precipitation rates for a few hours between about 6 PM and 2 AM before gradually tapering to moderate rates along the international border as mid-level deformation sets up with vertically stacked low pressure overhead. This should be enough to drive a quick change over to snow in the lower valleys, and mountain areas are likely to see snowfall rates in excess of 1"/hr. A dry slot remains possible, but the southward shift means it could just graze our southern areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 401 AM EST Sunday...By Monday morning, the decreasing rates and climbing temperatures should begin to limit impacts. Snow showers will likely continue within abundant wrap around moisture, but additional accumulations should stay around an inch or so. Snowfall amounts have not changed a great deal, but the overall confidence has increased somewhat. We'll continue to monitor the potential for black ice given how much liquid will be packed in this storm as temperatures fall below freezing Monday night. Tuesday will be much colder, with highs in the 30s and a few snow showers continuing.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 401 AM EST Sunday...Upper level trough continues to push across our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Therefore we'll have some upslope snow showers Tuesday night but winding down by early Wednesday. Dry weather will continue for Wednesday night into Thursday with ridging over the region. Then towards the end of the week we'll have chance for showers returning with a low passing north of our region. Will have a notable warming trend headed into the weekend, but some more unsettled weather possible with additional chances for showers as another low pressure system approaches from the Ohio river valley.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 12Z Monday...Low stratus clouds will remain overhead with little to no improvement expected through the next 24 hours. Expect widespread and persistent IFR/LIFR ceilings with mist and fog that will reduce visibilities to LIFR through MVFR levels. Visibilities may be more variable today than ceilings, with brief improvements in vis possible at times, but low clouds should stay persistent and keep overall LIFR/IFR conditions in place. A winter storm will move into the area this evening into the overnight. Precipitation will start as predominantly rain after 18Z, but will changeover to snow through 00Z especially at higher elevations. After 00Z, expect heavy wet snow at times with very low ceilings and visibilities, especially in higher terrain TAF sites. Winds will become southeast under 10 kt today. The exception will be KMSS, which will see some northeast winds, gusty at times to 20 kt.

Outlook...

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for VTZ006>008-010-016>021.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for VTZ003-004.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ026-027-030-034.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ031.

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