Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:07PM Thursday October 17, 2019 2:38 PM EDT (18:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:29PMMoonset 10:46AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 171819
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
219 pm edt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis
Deep low pressure will slowly depart across maine overnight,
allowing precipitation to become lighter and more intermittent,
along with a gradual decrease in northwesterly winds. Cloud
cover and seasonably cool temperatures will persist on Friday,
with light to moderate northwest winds. Surface high pressure
building in from the great lakes will bring moderating
temperatures and increased potential for sunshine over the
weekend. The next chance for widespread rainfall arrives with a
frontal system on Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Near term through Friday
As of 930 am edt Thursday... No changes needed to ongoing flood
watch or wind advisory (in the champlain valley) attm. That
said, did increase wind speeds east of the green mountains for
the remainder of today. Noted a recent gusts to 38mph at
springfield,vt (vsf), and continued gusts 30-38 mph should be
common through sunset on WRN periphery of strong low pressure,
as center drifts ewd into maine this afternoon. Dry slot and
downsloping effects have limited rainfall across the northeast
kingdom. However, still seeing moderate rainfall rates in
deformation zone further west, affecting much of northern ny
into western vt. Still seeing some rainfall rates 0.10-0.20" hr,
including 0.16" this past hour at kslk. This will maintain a
threat of minor river flooding, including on the ausable, otter
creek, and mad river during the next 12-18 hrs, based on
current trends. In addition, downed leaves and clogged storm
drains will maintain poor drainage street flooding throughout
the day. With low overcast and windy conditions in place,
temperatures will not change significantly with highs mainly in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Noted 30f at the whiteface summit,
and snow accumulations are underway above 3500-4000ft in the
adirondacks. Higher summit level snowfall in the adirondacks
could exceed 6" by this evening.

Prior discussion...

windy and inclement weather continues today as deep sub-980 mb
low pressure occludes across the southern vt nh border and pulls
east into far eastern new england tonight. A sharp pressure
gradient will exist across our area and as winds back to
northerly gusts into the 25 to 35 mph range will be likely in
most areas. Stronger gusts into the 35 to 45 mph range with
localized gusts to 50 mph are expected across the champlain
valley due to enhanced channeling effects. Areas closer to lake
champlain, especially in the southern champlain valley will
likely see the strongest gusts, which should peak in the 6 am to
2 pm time frame. In these areas a wind advisory remains in
effect through early evening for scattered limb damage and
isolated power outages. Temperatures should hold fairly steady
from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Rainfall will be steady and occasionally heavy at times, especially
across the champlain valley of ny and the adirondacks in proximity
to best deformation and frontogenesis. Further east the character of
rainfall will be more of the light to moderate variety, especially
across eastern vt with a distinct dry slot edging westward as system
occludes. Overall rainfall from this event was adjusted slightly to
incorporate more cam QPF output which highlights more enhanced
shadowing effects in the eastern champlain valley western green
mountain slopes northeastern vt (see hydro section below). Based off
blended 850 mb thermal profiles a changeover to wet snow is also
likely across the adirondack high peaks which will continue, albeit
lighter into tonight. Here totals should average from 2-5 inches in
the 3500-4500 foot range with the highest peaks above 5000 feet
possibly seeing totals nearing 1 foot. Further east totals will be
less given milder easterly atlantic trajectories - perhaps an inch
or two on the very highest summits.

By later this afternoon and especially tonight steadier rainfall
gradually takes on a more showery character and lessens in
intensity coverage as deep occlusion begins to trundle slowly
eastward. Winds and wind gusts also abate to more tolerable levels
with p-gradient slowly relaxing over time. Low temperatures to
average generally from 37 to 43.

Conditions continue to slowly calm down into Friday as occlusion
pulls further away into the maritimes and low to mid level ridging
edges east from the great lakes. It will remain breezy as northwest
wind gusts average from 15 to 20 mph and shower activity remains
confined largely across higher elevations of the northern mountains
where additional light QPF is expected. High temperatures a blend of
bias-corrected MOS guidance - mid 40s to lower 50s.

Short term Friday night through Saturday
As of 336 am edt Thursday... For Saturday, broad surface high
pressure sets up to our south. Some lingering showers will be
possible in the northeast kingdom during the overnight hours,
but will quickly scour out towards dawn. Overnight lows should
be coldest in northern new york, where partial clearing will
allow lows to fall between 25 and 32. The champlain valley and
eastern vermont should remain in the mid to upper 30s. With
skies clearing on Saturday, it will be a pleasant fall day with
highs in the 50s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 336 am edt Thursday... A warming trend will take place as
ridging builds through the long term with the next impactful
weather system coming in either Tuesday or Wednesday with
details on the timing still being sussed out.

On Sunday, a weak shortwave trough will northeastward, but it will
do little in the face of the ridge that is over the region. With
little moisture advecting in and with the parent low of surface cold
front so far north, this will have no more impact than some
increased cloud cover.

For Monday, deep layer ridging will reamplify in response to an
upstream trough digging across our west. Thus, a pleasant day is
expected. Deterministic models have slowed the speed of the next
system, which seems reasonable given the size and strength of the
upper trough over the great lakes. Monday should remain dry with
highs above seasonal norms, topping out in the 60s. The question
then becomes whether the front arrives Tuesday or Wednesday. The
latest 00z ECMWF forecast does not have the trough approaching until
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning and has a low developing
along the coast near a strengthening baroclinic zone. The 00z cmc
agrees. Looking at ensemble guidance though, it looks like "the
blend is your friend" approach will be best for now with a few gfs
ensemble members showing a solution like the ec forecast. It
certainly seems to be the favored set up as of late, but there are
not enough members in support among the GFS and cmc ensembles to
have me lean further towards the ec. We should be back around
seasonal norms behind the departing upper trough.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Through 18z Friday... Difficult aviation weather conditions will
persist through tonight, with slow improvement on Friday. Flight
conditions will continue to range from MVFR to ifr through
tonight across the north country with hir trrn obscd. Should see
a gradual return toVFR ceiling conditions Friday morning at
pbg rut mss, with continued MVFR ceilings elsewhere. Will see
continued low stratus in n-nw flow on WRN periphery of deep low
pressure departing across nh me, with intermittent periods of
rain. Strong n-nw winds - with gusts to 32kt - still expected
through 21-22z. Thereafter, peak wind gusts will generally fall
into the 20-25kt range as pressure gradient slowly weakens
overnight.

Outlook...

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Monday:VFR. No sig wx.

Monday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely shra.

Hydrology
As of 200 pm edt Thursday... Rainfall rates across western vt and
the adirondacks will gradually lessen below 0.10" hr mid to
late this afternoon as deep low pressure over new hampshire
exits eastward across maine. Storm total rainfall amounts thus
far have been heaviest from essex county ny, sewd across
addison rutland windsor counties in s-central vt. In these
areas, 2-3" rainfall totals over the past 24 hours have been
widespread, with localized totals in excess of 3" (see recently
issued public information statement for specific amounts). As
such, main river concerns include the ausable, otter creek, new
haven, and middlebury rivers. Point flood warnings continue in
effect at asfn6 and cenv1 for expected crests within minor
flood stage this evening. Elsewhere, have had reports of street
closures owing to flooding in the towns of addison lincoln. May
see additional localized minor flooding through this evening,
and have issued a special weather statement to cover poor
drainage and low-land flooding. All other rivers should crest
near or below bankfull, and rivers will begin to recede late
tonight.

Marine
As of 336 am edt Thursday... A wind advisory remains in effect
today. Strong northerly winds from 25 to 35 kt and gusts from 40
to 50 kt are expected on lake champlain today. This will create
hazardous conditions with a rough chop and significant wave
heights into the 4 to 7 foot range in open water and bays inlets
with northerly exposures. The highest winds waves will occur
across the southern half of the broad lake this morning and this
afternoon before slowly abating tonight. Those with
recreational plans on the lake today should strongly consider
postponing plans until Friday or the upcoming weekend when
conditions will be significantly better.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Flood watch through Friday morning for vtz002-005-006-008>012-
016>019.

Wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vtz001-002-005-
009.

Ny... Flood watch through Friday morning for nyz028>031-034-035.

Wind advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for nyz028-035.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos jmg
short term... Haynes
long term... Haynes
aviation... Banacos
hydrology... Banacos
marine... Jmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi44 minNNW 21 G 272.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy46°F43°F89%984.6 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi45 minNNW 18 G 258.00 miRain and Breezy45°F42°F90%986.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15
G22
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SE8SE3SE10E11E10N6N8N12N14N16
G25
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N17N20
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G35
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1 day agoCalmS7S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE3SE5S4S5S7S10SE11SE12
G18
2 days agoSW9W9NE5N4NW8W7NW10NW6NW7SW4CalmS3CalmSE3CalmE3E4NE4CalmS443S5W4

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.