Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alexandria Bay, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
There will be a brief lull in the shower activity this evening behind the initial wave of showers. A second more robust shortwave will then push a consolidating area of low pressure from Lower Michigan across our forecast. This will support a second round of fairly widespread showers and possible thunderstorms over our region
especially across the western Southern Tier
Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions where a quarter to a half inch of rain could fall. While this will result in a noticeable rise in area tributaries...no issues are anticipated on the larger streams/rivers.

Strong shortwave energy rounding the base of a digging trough over southern Ontario will 'capture' the sfc low over the St Lawrence valley and slow its exit to the east. While the bulk of the mid level energy will be stripped away over our region in the process...
significant hgt falls and a wealth of leftover low level moisture will retard the dissipation of the morning showers
In fact
showers will persist through the day into Saturday night for areas east of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures on Saturday will be a solid 10 to 15 degrees lower than those from today (Fri)...as highs in most areas will only be in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A slower departure of a mid level trough Sunday will linger rain showers, perhaps mixed with wet snowflakes, east of Lake Ontario through the morning, before drier air and improving conditions from the west advances eastward. Clear skies and light winds Sunday night with passage of a surface ridge will allow for temperatures to drop towards freezing east of Lake Ontario.

Mainly clear starlit skies will be in place Sunday night...as high pressure will cross the region. Milder and dry Monday and Monday night on the backside of the surface high.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
An active day is becoming more likely for Tuesday as deep southerly flow ushers in a moisture rich airmass and instability that coupled with a strong LLJ will bring favorable conditions for at least locally strong thunderstorms.

Still a little timing uncertainty among the model guidance, mainly as to how much sunshine/ rain showers will be around in the morning hours. Siding with the NBM as well as the 12Z Canadian and 12Z ECMWF much of Tuesday morning should be dry before storms erupt during the afternoon and evening hours. PWAT values rising to over an inch along with daytime temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s will create SBCAPE values over 1K J/KG. A strengthening LLJ to 50-55 knots running parallel to the cold front will favor linear structures to thunderstorms, while increasing CAPE in the mid levels will also favor the formation of hail in stronger storms.

Afternoon and evening timing on the storms within a prefrontal trough, with a breezy westerly to northwesterly wind through Wednesday behind the passage of a cold front Tuesday night.

Mainly dry conditions Wednesday through at least Thursday morning, though a secondary cold front may clip the North Country with a few showers Wednesday. Returning moisture ahead of the mid level trough will return unsettled weather Thursday afternoon through Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A brief lull behind the initial wave of showers will support mainly VFR cigs this evening
After that
the next round of showers, possibly with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will arrive tonight. VFR cigs will deteriorate overnight to MVFR then eventually to IFR to LIFR levels.

Most areas will experience MVFR cigs on Saturday.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR, but morning MVFR cigs and scattered showers east of Lake Ontario.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR with afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

MARINE
Low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes to just north of the lower Great Lakes tonight through early Saturday. East winds will increase today on Lake Ontario ahead of this system with choppy conditions developing.

Conditions approaching Small Craft Advisory are more likely Saturday through Saturday night behind the cold front, especially on Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.