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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 957 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..West wind 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 300445 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 957 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Rather quiet night across our Northwoods as low level ridging and overall zonal upper level flow hold over the Great Lakes region.
skies are partly to mostly cloudy across our CWA with no precip ongoing. Weak moisture-starved cold front will swing thru Northern Michigan tomorrow...resulting only in a slight chance of some light snow showers across portions of Eastern Upper Michigan. In the meantime...little will change overnight head of that front.
Overnight lows will cool into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Partial Clearing

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

Milder air continues to stream into the region from the southwest.
As a result over lake instability is decreasing with time. The back edge of a lake generated cloud deck is just on the Lake Michigan shoreline at the moment. Expect clearing to spread across the region from west to east this evening and hold through the overnight hours. The one exception is across eastern upper where more clouds along with a few snow showers will continue. Southwest winds are expected to keep temperatures from dropping off too much with lows in the milder mid 20s to around 30 expected.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Mild with Small Precipitation Chances

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

A surface cold front will move across the region Thursday from northwest (late morning) to southeast (afternoon). Mild air in combination with downsloping southwest winds are expected to boost temperatures from around 40 to the mid 40s. Cooler air behind the front will likely produce more lake clouds and even a few snow showers (mainly off of Lake Superior) Thursday night into Friday.
Low pressure is then expected to move by to our south Friday night into Saturday. Not expecting much weather to reach this far north but will continue to carry low to slight chance pops across far southern zones (mainly near Saginaw Bay). Not as warm Friday into Saturday with highs mainly in the 30s and lows ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal

Broad longwave troughing over the entire CONUS with embedded disturbances will continue a cool and wet weather pattern for the entirety of the long term. Best chance of active weather comes at the beginning of the forecast period as low pressure returns snowfall (and maybe some rain) to the Great Lakes region.

A shortwave trough currently over the West Coast will progress across the southern Rockies this week and make its way to the Great Lakes region by the start of the weekend. This bit of energy will deliver mainly snowfall to the CWA at the beginning of next week, but milder air might generate some mixed precip for locations closer to the shorelines. But regardless, no heavy rain/snowfall is expected at this time. After the system makes its way towards the east coast by Monday, snowfall will be generated at times next week due to lingering low level moisture (850 to 700mb RH above 70%). No impactful weather is expected at this time.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

A weak moisture-starved cold front will slide thru Northern Michigan on Thursday...resulting only in some additional cloud cover and a slight chance of a light rain/snow shower across mainly Eastern Upper Michigan. Overall conditions will remain low VFR/MVFR thru Thursday night. Surface winds will remain from the SW at around 10 kts...shifting to the W/NW Thursday afternoon behind the cold front.

MARINE
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Southwest winds will continue to be gusty at times through Thursday morning. A cold front will then shift winds into the west northwest Thursday afternoon. Winds are then expected to decrease below sca level by early Thursday evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.

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