Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Belfast, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:31PM Thursday January 23, 2020 4:05 PM EST (21:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:18AMMoonset 4:18PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 319 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming sw around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of rain or snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain or snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
ANZ100 319 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will then persist through early Saturday. Low pressure will pass through the waters later this weekend and early next week. Low end gales are likely Saturday night and early Sunday morning with this system. High pressure will build across the waters early next week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belfast city, ME
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location: 44.42, -69.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 232013 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 313 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will sink gradually south into the area tonight through Friday accompanied by a few clouds. A broad area of low pressure will cross the region this weekend with accumulating snow possible over higher terrain, rain along the coast, and a mix between over the foothills. The system exits early next week with quiet weather to follow.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. At 19z a 1032 millibar high was centered to our south across the mid Atlantic region. A cold front extended from central Quebec through the upper Great Lakes. a 1031 millibar high was centered over northern Ontario province. GOES imagery showed extensive high clouds across the area at moment with filtered sunshine allowing temperatures to rebound into the 30s and lower 40s. A shortwave impulse was evident on water vapor imagery over northern Quebec that should serve to nudge the cold front south across the forecast area overnight. With thicker cloud largely confined to far northern areas overnight . we should see good radiational cooling once again and I shaved several degrees off the machine numbers once again.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Partly sunny on Friday behind the cold front in light northeast flow as surface high pressure builds by to our north across Quebec. The onshore flow will eventually introduce some low clouds to southern and coastal sections by afternoon. With 850 millibar temperatures only a degree or two colder in many sections versus today . we should see highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s once again. Mostly cloudy tomorrow night in the onshore flow with some spotty light snow showers possible over southern and coastal sections . with some spotty freezing drizzle possible as well. Lows will be mainly in the 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. By Saturday morning, a ridge of high pressure associated with a mild air mass will be centered across the Canadian Maritimes. The ridge will gradually move eastward and weaken through late in the weekend.

During the same time period Saturday morning, an occluded area of low pressure will be centered across the Ohio River Valley and the southern Great Lakes. A triple point low is expected to develop near the Delmarva Peninsula and move northeastward across New England through the day on Sunday, and will slowly continue moving eastward into New Brunswick Early Monday.

Models have continued to trend warmer over the last few runs. They have also come into much better agreement with the latest 12Z run.

The deterministic GFS brings the triple point low across western New England, cutting it up through Vermont on Sunday, and then slowly moves it eastward through New Hampshire and Maine, and exiting into New Brunswick by Monday morning. However, the latest 12Z run of the GEFS had a slightly different solution. The GEFS keeps the parent low and the triple point low more separate than the GFS does, with some members that have more secondary development depicting the low to move over southern Maine and deepen as it moves through the central part of the state. This is similar to previous runs of the ECMWF and ECMWF ENS.

The ECMWF depicts the coastal low developing near the Delmarva and pivoting northward around the parent into Vermont, then moving across northern Maine into New Brunswick early Monday. This has been a significant shift from earlier runs which were more persistent with a more coastal low solution. However, it's ensembles are more split, with many members sticking with a coastal low moving across southwest Maine.

The Canadian is similar to both the GFS and ECMWF, but it is much slower with the system, and does not exit the low through New Brunswick until Tuesday.

These tracks would bring a continuous northward progression of warmer through Sunday, with the warmth only making progress above the ground across the mountains, presenting an increased chance of sleet and freezing rain there. A more coastal solution would largely prevent this, but the low cutting into western New England allows the warmer air to flood in aloft. With a lack of cold air the most likely solution appears to be mostly rain across southern NH, along the coast, and across much of the coastal plain. The mountains and foothills look likely to start as mostly snow, gradually changing over to a wintry mix, then changing back to snow overnight Sunday.

QPF across the region looks to be roughly in the 0.75"-1.25" range, with amounts being limited by the intrusion of a dry slot on Sunday. There could be some slightly higher amounts in the proximity of the coastal front, but the front does not appear that it will be very strong with the relatively mild airmass in place.

As the low slowly meanders and the upper level low passes through New England on Monday, even areas that saw mostly rain could end as some snow showers, while the mountains will continue to pick up some more snowfall from a combination of upslope and support from the upper level low.

In terms of tides, the high tide in Portland on Sunday around noon has an astronomical tide of 10ft. The strongest onshore winds are expected to occur closer to the previous low tide, so the storm surge values should be dropping by the time of high tides. Even so, some splashover is possible Sunday Midday due to the waves that will have developed.

High pressure will build across the New England from Tuesday through late in the week next week.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /Through Friday Night/ . VFR. Areas of MVFR cigs developing aft 20z Fri over southern and coastal sections in onshore flow with spotty light -SHSN/-FZDZ possible aft 06z Sat.

Long Term . A storm system is expected to bring snow across the north, and rain across the coastal plain, which will reduce visibilities and ceilings at times late Saturday through Monday. Some gusty winds will also accompany the system, with east winds progressively shifting to the northwest from Sunday through Monday. High pressure will build in through midweek next week with clearing conditions.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Friday Night/ . Winds and seas to remain below SCA However. behind a cold frontal passage late tonight a northeast wind will gradually increase late Friday and Friday night along with building seas. We could come close to SCA seas south of Casco Bay by early Saturday.

Long Term . An area of low pressure will slowly cross the eastern waters Saturday Night through Monday, bringing a period of easterly low end gales Sunday morning. The system will then slowly exit into the Canadian Maritimes Monday morning, with freshening northerly winds on the backside. High pressure will build in behind the system across the waters early next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.

NEAR TERM . Schwibs SHORT TERM . Schwibs LONG TERM . Clair


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 25 mi122 min WSW 9.7 G 12 38°F 2 ft1024.4 hPa
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 43 mi54 min 41°F 36°F1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME24 mi10 minSW 310.00 miFair37°F27°F67%1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRKD

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3SW4SW3CalmW3W3W3CalmW3CalmCalmW5W4W7SW7W8W8SW7W10SW10SW7SW5SW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3W3W3W3W3W3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalm3S3S5SE4
2 days agoW13W7W7W9W10NW7CalmNW43NW3CalmNW3NW5Calm33N553W4W5S4W5W3

Tide / Current Tables for Belfast, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Fort Point, Penobscot River, Maine
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Fort Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:28 AM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:46 AM EST     11.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:17 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:11 PM EST     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:26 PM EST     10.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.641.90.70.72.14.57.39.711.211.510.58.35.32.40.3-0.7-0.21.64.16.88.89.99.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.