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Marine Weather and Tides Belfast, ME Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:01AM

Sunset 4:31PM

Thursday January 23, 2020 4:05 PM EST (21:05 UTC)

Moonrise 7:18AM

Moonset 4:18PM

Illumination 2%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belfast city, ME

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Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 232013 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 313 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will sink gradually south into the area tonight through Friday accompanied by a few clouds. A broad area of low pressure will cross the region this weekend with accumulating snow possible over higher terrain, rain along the coast, and a mix between over the foothills. The system exits early next week with quiet weather to follow.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. At 19z a 1032 millibar high was centered to our south across the mid Atlantic region. A cold front extended from central Quebec through the upper Great Lakes. a 1031 millibar high was centered over northern Ontario province. GOES imagery showed extensive high clouds across the area at moment with filtered sunshine allowing temperatures to rebound into the 30s and lower 40s. A shortwave impulse was evident on water vapor imagery over northern Quebec that should serve to nudge the cold front south across the forecast area overnight. With thicker cloud largely confined to far northern areas overnight . we should see good radiational cooling once again and I shaved several degrees off the machine numbers once again.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Partly sunny on Friday behind the cold front in light northeast flow as surface high pressure builds by to our north across Quebec. The onshore flow will eventually introduce some low clouds to southern and coastal sections by afternoon. With 850 millibar temperatures only a degree or two colder in many sections versus today . we should see highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s once again. Mostly cloudy tomorrow night in the onshore flow with some spotty light snow showers possible over southern and coastal sections . with some spotty freezing drizzle possible as well. Lows will be mainly in the 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. By Saturday morning, a ridge of high pressure associated with a mild air mass will be centered across the Canadian Maritimes. The ridge will gradually move eastward and weaken through late in the weekend.

During the same time period Saturday morning, an occluded area of low pressure will be centered across the Ohio River Valley and the southern Great Lakes. A triple point low is expected to develop near the Delmarva Peninsula and move northeastward across New England through the day on Sunday, and will slowly continue moving eastward into New Brunswick Early Monday.

Models have continued to trend warmer over the last few runs. They have also come into much better agreement with the latest 12Z run.

The deterministic GFS brings the triple point low across western New England, cutting it up through Vermont on Sunday, and then slowly moves it eastward through New Hampshire and Maine, and exiting into New Brunswick by Monday morning. However, the latest 12Z run of the GEFS had a slightly different solution. The GEFS keeps the parent low and the triple point low more separate than the GFS does, with some members that have more secondary development depicting the low to move over southern Maine and deepen as it moves through the central part of the state. This is similar to previous runs of the ECMWF and ECMWF ENS.

The ECMWF depicts the coastal low developing near the Delmarva and pivoting northward around the parent into Vermont, then moving across northern Maine into New Brunswick early Monday. This has been a significant shift from earlier runs which were more persistent with a more coastal low solution. However, it's ensembles are more split, with many members sticking with a coastal low moving across southwest Maine.

The Canadian is similar to both the GFS and ECMWF, but it is much slower with the system, and does not exit the low through New Brunswick until Tuesday.

These tracks would bring a continuous northward progression of warmer through Sunday, with the warmth only making progress above the ground across the mountains, presenting an increased chance of sleet and freezing rain there. A more coastal solution would largely prevent this, but the low cutting into western New England allows the warmer air to flood in aloft. With a lack of cold air the most likely solution appears to be mostly rain across southern NH, along the coast, and across much of the coastal plain. The mountains and foothills look likely to start as mostly snow, gradually changing over to a wintry mix, then changing back to snow overnight Sunday.

QPF across the region looks to be roughly in the 0.75"-1.25" range, with amounts being limited by the intrusion of a dry slot on Sunday. There could be some slightly higher amounts in the proximity of the coastal front, but the front does not appear that it will be very strong with the relatively mild airmass in place.

As the low slowly meanders and the upper level low passes through New England on Monday, even areas that saw mostly rain could end as some snow showers, while the mountains will continue to pick up some more snowfall from a combination of upslope and support from the upper level low.

In terms of tides, the high tide in Portland on Sunday around noon has an astronomical tide of 10ft. The strongest onshore winds are expected to occur closer to the previous low tide, so the storm surge values should be dropping by the time of high tides. Even so, some splashover is possible Sunday Midday due to the waves that will have developed.

High pressure will build across the New England from Tuesday through late in the week next week.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /Through Friday Night/ . VFR. Areas of MVFR cigs developing aft 20z Fri over southern and coastal sections in onshore flow with spotty light -SHSN/-FZDZ possible aft 06z Sat.

Long Term . A storm system is expected to bring snow across the north, and rain across the coastal plain, which will reduce visibilities and ceilings at times late Saturday through Monday. Some gusty winds will also accompany the system, with east winds progressively shifting to the northwest from Sunday through Monday. High pressure will build in through midweek next week with clearing conditions.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Friday Night/ . Winds and seas to remain below SCA However. behind a cold frontal passage late tonight a northeast wind will gradually increase late Friday and Friday night along with building seas. We could come close to SCA seas south of Casco Bay by early Saturday.

Long Term . An area of low pressure will slowly cross the eastern waters Saturday Night through Monday, bringing a period of easterly low end gales Sunday morning. The system will then slowly exit into the Canadian Maritimes Monday morning, with freshening northerly winds on the backside. High pressure will build in behind the system across the waters early next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.

NEAR TERM . Schwibs SHORT TERM . Schwibs LONG TERM . Clair

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay	25 mi	122 min	WSW 9.7 G 12	38°F		2 ft	1024.4 hPa
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME	43 mi	54 min		41°F	36°F		1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME	24 mi	10 min	SW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	37°F	27°F	67%	1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRKD

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Belfast, Penobscot Bay, Maine

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Tide / Current Tables for Fort Point, Penobscot River, Maine

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME

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