Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waldport, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 4:35PM Saturday December 14, 2019 12:29 AM PST (08:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:18PMMoonset 10:06AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:201912141230;;740061 Fzus56 Kpqr 132245 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 245 Pm Pst Fri Dec 13 2019 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-270-275-141230- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm-waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 245 Pm Pst Fri Dec 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 15 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of showers. Areas of drizzle overnight.
Sat..S wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 14 seconds. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Chance of showers.
Sat night..SE wind 5 kt. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sun..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sun night..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves se 4 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 ft.
Mon night..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 9 ft.
Tue..SE wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts around 25 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 11 ft.
Wed..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts around 30 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. W swell 10 ft.
PZZ200 245 Pm Pst Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak surface low will move southeastward towards california Saturday before weak high pressure shifts across the waters on Sunday. Offshore flow will likely develop early next week before a front brings increasing winds and seas again late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waldport, OR
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location: 44.44, -124.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 140433 AAB AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 832 PM PST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Northwest flow aloft over the forecast area through the weekend will result in a continued chance of light precipitation. High pressure builds offshore Sunday night and gradually shifts toward the coast Monday. The ridge shifts east of the Cascades by Tuesday afternoon. A more progressive and wetter pattern is expected for the latter half of next week.

UPDATE. Forecast is mostly in good shape this evening, though we did bump up PoPs a bit to accommodate higher rain chances associated with a weak shortwave approaching the S WA/far N OR coast. This system does appear to be producing a decent amount of shower activity based on latest KLGX reflectivity data, and at least a few of these showers should hold together as the system moves onshore. Otherwise, made no changes to inherited forecast and the discussion below remains valid. Weagle

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday . Early afternoon water vapor imagery revealed an extensive moisture band extending from the Sierras to near Hawaii in associated with a 150-170 kt jet stream. A short-wave was also noted near 48N 138W and a second, deeper upper level trough could be seen near 42N 142W.

The forecast area continues to be split by two weather environments associated with the strong jet stream. North of the jet a cool and unstable air mass exists, which covers the majority of the forecast area. South of the jet is a milder and more stratiform air mass. Rainfall rates across the Lane County Cascades and foothills have been generally under a tenth of an inch per hour. The 12Z GFS and NAM show weak isentropic lift along the 290K surface over the southeast quarter of the forecast area late this afternoon through around 03Z Sat. Downglide, or negative isentropic advection develops after 03Z as surface high pressure noses into SW Oregon. Meanwhile, a weak upper level short-wave is forecast to move into western Washington and northwest Oregon overnight. This will help shunt the baroclinic boundary further south, into extreme southern Oregon and northern California. Have included the possibility of drizzle for the southern half of the forecast area overnight into Sat morning due to a nearly saturated layer to around 800 mb and weak lift. The second upper level short-wave slides southeast toward SW Oregon late Sat. The combination of cyclonic 500 mb flow and weak short-wave dynamics leads to a continued chance of some light precipitation. The south part of the forecast area will be more favored and have the higher POPS.

By Sat night/Sun morning a 500 mb ridge amplifies along 130W. However, models still indicate some degree of cyclonic northwest flow over the area Sat night. NAM model time-height section for KPDX shows a more shallow saturated lower level air mass Sat night into Sun morning as drier north flow descends to 700 to 750 mb. The GFS hints at some light QPF generally along the coast and over the higher coastal terrain, but the NAM is a little less aggressive. The upper ridge axis reaches the coast Mon. However, the 12Z ECMWF shows some over-running light QPF along the coastal areas Mon. the 18Z NAM shows a well-defined surface feature just off the central coast Sun night and then moves it inland near KONP early Mon morning. Think this solution is more of an outlier. Would also expect areas of valley fog/stratus Sun night into Mon morning. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Monday night through Friday . Above-average forecast confidence in the first half of the extended period. The 12Z operational runs and respective ensembles are in good agreement with the upper ridge slowly moving across the Pac NW early next week. The 12Z ECMWF appears to be a little quicker pushing the ridge east of the Cascades. This is likely due to the ECWMF maintaining an open, but elongated upper level trough along 130W, while the CMC and GFS show a distinct closed low near 40N 130W. About half of the GFS ensemble members show this closed low. The WPC forecast valid 00Z Wed is more in line with the 12Z operational GFS.

Forecast confidence lowers Wed through Fri. However, there is reasonable confidence that a return to a more progressive and wetter pattern is in store for the latter half of next week. Models show a more consolidated jet stream directed at Oregon and northern California beginning Wed night. Again, it appears southwest Oregon and northern California will be the more favored QPF areas. Model 1000-500 mb thickness values valid Fri are expected to be near 537 dm across SW Washington to the mid 540s for Lane County. Thus, snow levels will hover near to just below the passes across the north and near the passes in the Central Cascades. Weishaar

AVIATION. Clearing skies through the day has allowed for fog to move into coastal areas. This is typical with a pattern of a high pressure ridge building in a post frontal environment. A similar pattern of low stratus and fog is expected through the southern Willamette Valley overnight. Radar shows some lingering showers but accumulation will be light. Some drizzle is possible after around 12Z Sat as a weak shortwave moves over the area. This may help to break up any fog, however if there is ample clearing overnight, it will make the fog layer hard to erode. VFR cigs will return Sat afternoon after 18Z and remain through the day.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Mostly MVFR cigs with periods of VFR as scattered cloud cover moves through the area. A chance for VCSH through the evening. If skies clear up tonight, there is a strong chance that widespread fog will form. Confidence is low regarding this possibility as low stratus may just form instead. VFR cigs return after 18Z Sat through the remainder of the day. -Muessle

MARINE. Main impact continues to be the slowly easing westerly swell generated by the parent low pressure area well northwest of the waters. Will continue to see this swell ease tonight and Saturday. It still appears the swell will keep seas above 10 ft through at least Saturday afternoon while still possibly linger for a few hours Saturday evening.

Following that period, no significant impacts from winds or seas until late Monday when a large low pressure area sets up well offshore. It will swing multiple smaller scale lows just west of the waters Tuesday through Friday of next week. Weather models are showing broad agreement in this pattern with periods where winds will range 20-30 kt and swell possibly reaching back into the mid to upper teens. However, have not seen much day to day or run to run consistency with details yet from any given model. So generally recommend a plan for rough conditions affecting smaller vessels and waiting until next week to see how the details shake out. /JBonk

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM-Columbia River Bar-Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 12 mi30 min E 2.9 G 2.9 43°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.4)
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 13 mi60 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 43°F 50°F1018.2 hPa
46097 19 mi160 min WNW 3.9 50°F 51°F1017 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 29 mi40 min WSW 3.9 G 9.7 50°F 51°F17 ft1017.8 hPa44°F
46098 48 mi160 min WNW 7.8 50°F 51°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR10 mi35 minN 00.75 miFog/Mist41°F41°F100%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONP

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S3S5S5S6S6CalmCalmS4CalmE3SW5SW5SW3SW3W3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Waldport, Alsea Bay, Oregon
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Waldport
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:24 AM PST     6.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:24 AM PST     3.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:05 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:07 PM PST     8.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:18 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:24 PM PST     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.86.26.86.7654.13.53.64.35.678.28.78.47.35.63.51.4-0.1-0.9-0.80.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Winant, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Winant
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:31 AM PST     7.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:39 AM PST     3.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:05 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:14 PM PST     9.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:17 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:39 PM PST     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.96.47.37.36.65.54.43.63.54.25.57.28.69.39.18.16.34.220.2-0.8-0.9-0.11.5

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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