Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Searsport, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
First area of showers will move through this afternoon and early evening, but dry air in the low levels will result in virga and some sprinkles through sunset across the north and interior.
Isolated to scattered showers continue tonight, with low confidence in coverage. This is both due to remaining low level dry air and the chaotic nature of the convective systems moving east of the Great Lakes. Overnight temps lower, but will remain mild in the 40s and lower 50s.

Model fields have been advecting elevated instability into the forecast area tonight, and keep mention of thunder across the mountains and western ME. Some of the MUCAPE values are robust above a stout low level inversion. This is supported by mid level lapse rates of 6 to 7 c/km. Given the chance at more substantial lift, storms may contain small hail. Not enough confidence to put enhanced wording in the forecast at this moment, but lightning and dbz trends should be tracked overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Isolated to scattered showers continue Saturday with temperatures soaring into the mid 70s for much of the interior.
Readings close to 80 will be possible in southern NH. With the passage of a warm front overnight, the forecast area will reside in the warm sector of the parent low crossing southern Quebec.

Model profiles contain enough dry layers to expect a couple breaks of sun during the day tomorrow, which will help attain these above normal temperatures. However, thicker cloud cast could prevent some of these forecast highs being met, especially around areas of more continuous shower activity.

Surface based instability remains low to marginal tomorrow afternoon, but embedded waves will attempt to initiate one or two rounds of showers and storms through the early evening. Mid level lapse rates will have weakened, thus CAPE values will struggle unless low level moisture feed improves. Broad LLJ draped across New England may bring gusty winds to stronger showers or storms through the afternoon. MPAS CAMs do indicate some broken lines or multicellular development into western and southern NH. Will monitor trends ahead of the expected cold front that passes Saturday night.

Breeze that picks up midday continues into the evening and overnight hours keeping the surface mixed. Temps are slow to fall until cold front makes its way overhead. This will result in temps finally falling across the mountains and then interior overnight. Showers, some snow, continue in the mountains into early Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Message: The steady march of spring continues with temps alternating between cool and warm. Two solid signals for precip around Tue and again at the end of the week...although timing remains low confidence in the second system.

Impacts: The most significant weather impact will be fire weather on Sun. Min RH may fall into the low to mid teens along with gusty winds.

Forecast Details: Right out of the gate on Sun I had to make some adjustments to the guidance. The main concern is dewpoints.
Bufkit soundings indicate that mixing to at least 875 mb is probable. Using this as a starting point for mixing down dewpoints would yield min readings in the single digits. Both NBM and MOS guidance are more in the mid teens. So I have heavily blended the mixed down dewpoints into the forecast. The result is min RH values around 15 percent which will combine with northwest wind gusts of 35 mph. IF we do not get rain on Sat...the fact that temps are on the cool side may not matter so much for fire starts.

Otherwise there was little change to the NBM consensus blend.
There is a solid signal for precip Tue. Like the Sat event...there is broad consensus across model suites for a similarly light event. Additionally the best chances for rain will across the northern areas where the fire threat is already lowest. So that will have to be monitored thru midweek.

By late in the week a western CONUS trof combined with a flattish ridge over eastern CONUS will result in a fast flowing pattern locally. The timing differences between waves have PoP generally spread out over several periods...but chance wording sounds appropriate given that uncertainty.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...VFR this evening with LLWS after midnight across all terminals ahead of a warm front. Some low stratus may develop towards RKD overnight with MVFR/IFR ceilings until midday Sat. MVFR ceilings settle near HIE late Saturday.
Scattered SHRA expected through much of the area tonight and Saturday. Some TS can't be ruled out tonight across the mountains and again Saturday afternoon for western and southern NH. A cold front passes Saturday night with winds becoming gusty and from the NW.

Long Term...VFR conditions prevail until Tue. Northwest surface gusts near 30 to 35kt possible Sun. Warm front arrives early Tue and CIGs will lower and areas of IFR are possible. A return to VFR conditions is anticipated behind the cold front...as early as Tue night or Wed morning.

MARINE
Short Term...SCA continues this evening through Saturday as a warm front lifts over the waters. Expect building waves until a cold front crosses Saturday night with winds shifting offshore.

Long Term...SCA conditions expected Sun in offshore winds. Winds and seas will diminish thru Mon morning as high pressure builds over the region. Warm front will lift into the Gulf of ME Tue...and bring the potential for some marine fog.

FIRE WEATHER
Despite cool temps Sun...RH values will be very dry and winds will be gusty. Dewpoints may fall into the single digits and result in min RH around 15 percent for a large portion of the forecast area. Northwest winds may be sustained in excess of 20 mph and gusting over 35 mph at times during the day. If showers don't produce much wetting rain Sat...that could leave fuels dry for Sun.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150>154.