Wednesday, November13, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kewaunee, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:28PM Wednesday November 13, 2019 3:25 AM CST (09:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:27PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ542 Expires:201911131715;;198795 Fzus53 Kgrb 130852 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 252 Am Cst Wed Nov 13 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-131715- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 252 Am Cst Wed Nov 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SW wind increasing to 30 kts with a few gale force gusts possible. Waves building to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of light snow in the morning, then light snow in the afternoon.
Tonight..W wind diminishing to 15 to 20 kts then veering nw after midnight. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Light snow in the evening, then a slight chance of light snow after midnight.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing.
Thursday night..W wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Mostly clear. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ542


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kewaunee, WI
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location: 44.45, -87.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 130309
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
909 pm cst Tue nov 12 2019
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

Update
Issued at 854 pm cst Tue nov 12 2019
do not plan any significant changes to the forecast this evening,
though some of the details of the upcoming snow event are starting
to look a little different than they did earlier today. It now
seems likely that the greatest snowfalls will occur in a band
from north-central into northeast wisconsin, with lower totals
across the southern portion of the area. The snow is also probably
going to develop earlier across the north, and will likely affect
the morning commute. The snow will probably hold off until late
morning or the mid-day hours across much of central and east-
central wisconsin. There's no need to make major forecast changes
since this still looks like it will be a 1-3 inch snowfall for
most of the area, but may tweak the details a bit to better match
the latest trends.

Short term Tonight and Wednesday
issued at 149 pm cst Tue nov 12 2019
sunny skies prevailed across much of the area this afternoon. The
only exception was across the far north, and across door county
where clouds were developing across the bay of green bay and
moving onshore. It was very cold with temperatures in the teens
to around 20. Waupaca was the warm spot at 21.

For tonight, the cumulus clouds will dissipate and winds will
go light this evening. This will allow temperatures to fall
rapidly after sunset. Expecting lows to occur this evening
before clouds and increasing winds overnight will allow
temperatures to rise. Low temperatures temperatures will be
in the single digits to around 10 above, although a few readings
across far northeast wisconsin could fall into the single digits
below zero.

On Wednesday, light snow will overspread north-central wisconsin
after sunrise as low pressure approaches from the west. The snow
should overspread the remainder of the region during the late
morning and afternoon as the low moves across the region. Models
indicating 850mb warm advection ahead of the system, combined
with the region being in the left exit region of a 100 knot jet
streak should allow for some moderate snow Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening. There is some question on how quick the
snow will arrive across east- central wisconsin. The GFS nam were
indicating a dry layer that may slow the arrival of the snow. The
heaviest snow across the fox valley and lakeshore region will
occur the afternoon into the early evening, which will impact the
afternoon commute. Snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected,
with locally higher amounts possible across door county. It is
possible that a winter weather advisory may be issued overnight
since the impacts could hamper the evening commute home.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
issued at 149 pm cst Tue nov 12 2019
the main concerns in the extended portion of the forecast will be
another round of light snow for Wednesday into Wednesday night
and below normal temperatures steadily moderating toward the end
of the work week.

Wednesday night: a quick moving shortwave is expected to approach
the area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The
shortwave trough axis is expected to be across central wi by
00z 14 and then to the east of the area by 12z 14. At the same
time, a weak surface trough is expected to pass through the area
Wednesday evening. With these features in place and broad scale
forcing in place from the left-exit region of an upper jet, snow
is expected to linger through much of the evening. Drier air and
surface ridging will build in overnight, allowing snow to quickly
end from west to east around or just after midnight. Most
locations will end up seeing 1 to 2 inches, while locations over
the eastern portion of the area may see final totals in the 2 to 4
inch range (with brief lake enhancement possible over the door
peninsula). Late in the night, winds are expected to shift to the
northwest, which may lead to some light lake effect snow over
north-central wi. It does take a bit of time for bands to orient
along the wind shift, so this likely will be very minimal impact.

Overnight lows are expected to drop into the teens. For
comparison, normal lows are typically around 30 degrees.

Thursday through Friday: a dry surface ridge is expected to
continue building in behind the departing shortwave and weak
surface trough. This will lead to fairly quiet conditions through
much of this time period. The only exception will be late Thursday
night into the day Friday as a west to east oriented cold front
sags southward from ontario through much of northern wi. This
front is expected to become nearly stationary as it weakens across
the area. Along the front, there could be some light flurries;
however, moisture looks to be very limited with this feature, so
continued the dry forecast. Otherwise, with the upper trough
relaxing and flow becoming less amplified, temperatures are
expected to moderate. High temperatures are forecast to be in the
low to mid 30s with overnight lows in the upper teens to around
20. Still running about 10 degrees below normal, but at least it
is a little improvement!
Saturday through Sunday: the aforementioned high pressure center
is progged to shift to the new england states and then linger
through much of this time period. As this happens, warm more moist
southerly flow will increase behind the departing high and ahead
a surface trough cold front approaching from the west. As the waa
and moisture increase through the day Saturday, isentropic upglide
is expected to increase across all of the area by Saturday
afternoon. This may lead to some very light rain by late Saturday
afternoon. A sharper upper- level trough is expected to move into
the area late Saturday night and then linger through much of the
day Sunday as the cold front passes through. Along and ahead of
these features, moisture and forcing will steadily increase,
allowing for widespread chances of rain and snow showers. The gfs
is a bit cooler with this system, leading to more snow, while the
ec is warmer (aloft), leading to more rain. As the low to mid-
level temperature profiles are borderline (warmest layer hovering
near 0c to 1c), will continue the rain and snow mixture based on
diurnal warming cooling. It doesn't look like a heavy
precipitation maker; rather, models are generally only painting
less than a quarter of an inch of precipitation. More details can
be worked out over the next few days. High temperatures are
expected to warm into the mid to upper 30s, with overnight lows
warming into the mid to upper 20s.

Rest of the extended: models continue to linger the trough axis
across the area for the rest of the time period, keeping unsettled
weather in places. This will generally be in the form of diurnal
rain snow showers as temperatures warm in the afternoon and cool
at night. Again, temperatures aloft look borderline for all snow,
so the mix looks decent at this point. A blend of the models
seemed to handle the situation this far out.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 854 pm cst Tue nov 12 2019
aviation weather conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate
during the next 12-18 hours as light snow develops across the
region. Snow, and associated lowering ceilings and visibility is
expected to develop Wednesday-- initially across the north during
the morning, and then across central and east- central wiscnsin
during the afternoon. Anticipate a period of ifr conditions
tomorrow afternoon into the evening as the snow affects the
region. Increasing winds aloft overnight will result in some
llws-- mainly across the western portion of the area.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
short term... ..Eckberg
long term... ... Cooley
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 1 mi55 min SSW 11 G 13 14°F 1023.5 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 45 mi55 min SSW 6 G 8.9 17°F 40°F1022.4 hPa10°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI23 mi29 minS 1010.00 miOvercast13°F3°F64%1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTW

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12NW11NW12NW13NW11NW13NW14NW12W11W10W10W7W7SW6SW5S4S6SW6SW7SW5SW4SW6S7S10
1 day agoN9N11N13N12NW14
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2 days agoW4NW5NW6NW3W5NW6NW5N6N9N7N7N4N4N6N8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.