Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 1:21 PM   Moonset 2:35 AM

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LMZ542 Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1040 Pm Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Rest of the night - NE wind 5 to 10 kts veering se after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less. Thursday - SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Areas of fog in the afternoon. A chance of light showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Thursday night - S wind 5 to 10 kts veering sw after midnight. Areas of fog in the evening. A chance of light showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 ft or less. Friday - S wind 5 to 10 kts backing se in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 160328 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1028 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday, especially during the afternoon. A few of these storms may become strong with small hail and gusty winds.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening and again early next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Thursday

Main forecast issues to include: timing of precipitation late tonight/Thursday and whether any thunderstorms could become locally strong Thursday afternoon.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure that extended from eastern Ontario southwest through the western Great Lakes. An area of low pressure was located over eastern SD with a cold front stretched southward through the central Plains. Visible satellite imagery indicated mostly sunny skies over most of WI, however clouds were quickly spreading across the Upper MS Valley.

The ridge of high pressure slips toward eastern sections of the Great Lakes tonight, allowing for the low pressure/cold front and mid-level shortwave trough to move into the Upper MS Valley after midnight. Look for clouds to steadily be on the increase through the night and reach eastern WI toward daybreak. An increase in moisture ahead of the cold front could already bring rain chances into central WI by 12Z Thursday. More clouds will translate to temperatures not falling as far as previous nights. Min temperatures to range from the upper 30s far northeast WI, to the upper 40s over central WI.

As this system pushes into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday, showers will spread across the rest of central WI in the morning and reach eastern WI late morning to midday. Sufficient moisture (PW values around 1"), combined with modest lift from the cold front and mid-level Q-G forcing to bring these showers across the forecast area. Instability is marginal (MUCAPES of 200-700 J/KG), but moderate shear (30-40 kts) will support at least a chance of thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon under peak heating. A few of these storms could become strong, thus SPC has placed parts of northeast WI under a marginal risk of severe storms. Max temperatures on Thursday to be in the lower 60s near Lake MI, lower to middle 60s north and upper 60s to around 70 degrees south.

Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday

Attention in the extended period will mainly focus on a couple of active weather chances before attention then turns to the potential for a larger weather system in the middle of next week.

Thursday evening into Friday...The occluding low will be on its way out of the region Thursday evening through the overnight hours. Any stronger storms are expected to rapidly decrease in strength during this time period as quieter conditions return to the region overnight. Friday then continues to remain largely dry, with the system to our south holding off and the other remaining west, so kept the pops out of the forecast for now.

The weekend... A strong surge of warmer air will push into the region during the weekend, bringing temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. As dewpoints also push towards the middle to upper 50s, we will begin to hit convective temperatures across the region. This coupled with some weak CAA around 850mb should help get some scattered precipitation across the area. Shear will be minimal for this timeframe and little upper support will be present so organized severe weather is not expected, but a few pulse thunderstorms aren't out of the question. Any active weather will again depart fairly quickly in the overnight hours as drier air continues to push in aloft and surface instability diminishes after sunset.

Next week...Finally, attention turns towards the middle of next week as another low pressure system ejects from the Central Plains and heads towards the region. The track and strength of this system remain variable at this time however and will largely depend on how quickly weak high pressure breaks down ahead of this system earlier in the week.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1011 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions will continue through 12z, then CIGS may drop into the MVFR and possibly the IFR category across central into north- central and far northeast Wisconsin by 18z. The first round of rain should reach KRHI/KAUW/KCWA between 12z and 15z, and to KGRB/KATW/KMTW between 15z and 18z. Additional showers and storms are expected Thursday afternoon and early evening, especially across central and east-central Wisconsin which will be closer to the surface front and better instability for storms to form.
Stronger storms are possible Thursday afternoon with hail and gusty winds over 30 knots. Showers and storms will come to an end from west to east Thursday evening.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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