Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pepin, WI

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:13PM Sunday August 18, 2019 4:11 PM CDT (21:11 UTC) Moonrise 8:58PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pepin, WI
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location: 44.46, -92.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 182039
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
339 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 338 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019
clearing skies this afternoon as high pressure builds into the
region behind a departing cold front. Gusty northwest winds around
20 mph this afternoon will diminish after sunset, but still remain
around 5 kts overnight. This continued advection of dry air into the
area should mitigate any widespread fog concerns overnight, despite
the wet ground and clear skies. Still could see some patchy fog
across west-central wisconsin where winds will be lighter, as well
as the typical culprits near bodies of water and in low-lying areas.

A comfortable night is expected temperature-wise, with lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

Tomorrow looks like a fantastic late summer day with plenty of
sunshine and highs reaching near 80. Dewpoints will begin rising
into the mid-60s across western minnesota as southerly winds develop
out ahead of the next front, but muggy conditions should hold off
elsewhere until Monday night. Models continue to be inconsistent in
handling the front moving across the area Tuesday, as well as the
strength of the shortwave skirting the minnesota iowa border.

Guidance has trended towards the bulk of any precipitation either
during the day on Tuesday or remaining mostly dry, but the 12z
ecmwf has come in much stronger with the shortwave and generates
widespread thunderstorms along the front overnight Monday. Have
added low chance pops across western minnesota early Monday
morning to account for this potential early onset of
precipitation.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 338 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019
the weather during the extended will be your typical fare as we head
toward the end of august. Best chances for rain look to come
Tuesday and again Friday Saturday with the passage of a couple of
weak waves. Temperatures will be near normal as well, with no
significant heat expected.

We start this period with the passage of a cold front Tuesday.

Models, which had been trending drier with this front for us the last
couple of days have started creating a little bit more QPF down this
way, at least with the 12z runs of the ecmwf, gfs, and canadian. The
best forcing and upper jet support is still expected to be up along
the international border, but we'll have the better moisture and
instability down here. The main question is will we have enough
forcing to overcome the fairly stout capping in the form of either a
shortwave or llj. We stayed with nbm pops for now, which were just
20s 30s for eastern mn into wi. If we were to get something to go,
given lapse rates, instability, and shear, an at least conditional
severe risk would exist. Another area of some uncertainty for
Tuesday is highs. Nbm gave us low-mid 80s for highs on Tuesday,
which will only happen if one, the front comes through late in the
afternoon and two, it comes through dry with little cloud cover.

Behind the front, we will get a couple of absolutely perfect summer
days Wednesday and Thursday. With mixing, we should see dewpoints
drop into the 40s for most of the area on Wednesday, with highs both
days in the low to mid 70s with mainly sunny skies. Given the extent
of dry air with high pressure moving in Wednesday night, we should
have no problem getting some lows down into the upper 40s Thursday
morning into central mn.

Thursday night into Friday, a strong h5 low will be tracking across
northern saskatchewan and manitoba. This will send a cold front into
the upper ms valley region on Friday, but being so far removed from
the forcing, we will be at the south end of this front, with it
likely washing out or getting hung up across the region over the
weekend. This is why we have low pops from Friday through the
weekend at this point. Right now, but chance for rain looks to come
Friday into Saturday as the boundary initially moves into the area.

There really isn't any forcing to help push this boundary out of the
area until early next week. With this boundary moving in, we will
see humidity levels increase for the weekend, though the brunt of
the heat looks to remain to our southwest, so we'll likely just see
highs creep back up into the 80s, with any 90s remaining likely
southwest of the missouri river.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1248 pm cdt Sun aug 18 2019
bkn ovc MVFR ceilings will continue to scatter out and depart
east along the cold front this afternoon, with restrictions mainly
limited to rnh eau through mid afternoon. Clear skies are
expected by this evening with no ceiling visibility concerns
expected through the rest of the period. Wnw NW winds of 10-15 kts
along with gusts up to 20 kts will continue this afternoon and
become light after sunset. Southerly winds develop overnight and
increase to 10-15 kts by the end of the period.

Kmsp... No additional concerns.

Outlook for kmsp
tue...VFR. Slight chc -tsra MVFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Eta
long term... Mpg
aviation... Eta


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI18 mi76 minWNW 12 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F48°F39%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRGK

Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.