Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pepin, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:53PM Thursday July 16, 2020 11:16 AM CDT (16:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:15AMMoonset 4:20PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pepin, WI
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location: 44.46, -92.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 161152 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 652 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Friday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Satellite imagery this morning shows a fairly potent shortwave with extensive cloud cover moving across NoDak within seasonably strong zonal flow. Height falls associated with this wave has lead to the development of a LLJ coming up out of Nebraska into central SoDak. The nose of this LLJ has resulted in the development of a few thunderstorms in north central SoDak. This area of forcing will continue east through the morning, with scattered showers expected to continue east across central MN through the morning. This wave will leave behind a subtle theta-e ridge from roughly Redwood Falls to Mora this afternoon and a weak surface convergence zone where isolated thunderstorm development is expected. Given MLCAPE of 1500- 2000 j/kg along this axis, with 40 kts of deep shear, the potential for developing supercellular structures will be possible with any stronger updrafts that develop. Several members of the HREF do show a couple of good updraft helicity streaks developing with activity this afternoon, so agree with the SPC in the need for a marginal risk. With the weak forcing, storm coverage doesn't look to be all that great, but given the CAPE/shear combo today, one or two severe storms can't be ruled out.

Tonight, we will see rising heights, so any activity we see this afternoon will die down pretty fast with the loss of daytime heating, with a fairly quiet night expected weather wise. However, we will see a LLJ lift north across Nebraska through night, approaching southwest MN by the morning. The nose of the LLJ will also be the site of a strengthening instability gradient. This instability gradient will gradually lift northeast during the day on Friday as an impressive EML begins moving out across the Plains. Forcing along this instability gradient is weak, so CAMs really struggle to develop any activity, but don't feel comfortable with a dry forecast for Friday given the degree of the instability gradient and weak moisture transport, so slowly lifted an area of 20 pops northeast through the day along the gradient. Where this gradient ends up by the end of the day on Friday will likely lay down the tracks for potentially much bigger problems Friday night.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

The start of the extended period could be very active and potentially dangerous based on the strength of shear and buoyancy.

Models continued to support a strong west to east flow aloft with a 80-100 knot 250H jet across the northern tier of the nation over the weekend. A very strong short wave for mid July is expected to move across the Upper Midwest Friday night and again Saturday night.

Friday night through Saturday night, global models support organized convection with very steep lapse rates, very high instability, and strong 0-6KM bulk wind shear values. Thus, it doesn't matter if convection develops, it matters on where and the strength of the atmospheric conditions as the storms evolve during this period. Other aspects to this severe weather potential is in the latest CIPS analogs which provides even more confidence of organized, scattered, to possibly widespread severe weather. Hence, it's no surprise to see SPC highlight the Upper Midwest for both Day 2 and 3 outlooks with the potential for severe weather.

Another tool we use is the CIPS analog which has similar atmospheric conditions for weather elements on specific times of the year and compares it to the latest model. The latest 48 hour forecast of the 00z/16 analog suggest 70-80% chance of 1 or more severe weather events, and 50-60% chance of 5 or more severe weather events. It is even interesting to note that two events (Top 5 Events of this analog period) that happened in late July 2002 both had a widespread swath of severe wind/hail, and a couple of tornadoes across central/southern Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin.

The other aspect to the weekend forecast is the excessive heat expected Saturday afternoon as heat indices approach 105 degrees and WBGT reach the mid to upper 80s. Both these indices indicate a excessive heat warning for Saturday afternoon.

Past Saturday night and into Sunday, the excessive heat and humidity will relax with more typical July heat next week. Although both the EC/GFS continue the west/northwest flow aloft, the latest EC is much stronger on a short wave next Tuesday night/Wednesday. Thus, a much better short wave and higher chances of widespread precipitation. Either way, the EC or GFS model guidance still supports the fast flow aloft, so any short wave embedded in this flow will enhance the chances of precipitation next week. It is more timing and strength vs. will we have showers and thunderstorms or not.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 652 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

12z MPX sounding backs up what forecast soundings are showing, activity coming out of SoDak this morning is encountering very dry air below 10k feet. Does look like activity will be robust enough to get some light precip down to the ground at AXN and possibly STC, but everywhere else, the dry air looks to hold. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along a weak boundary that will be near a RWF to JMR line during peak heating. Last few runs of the HRRR have been developing a broken line of storms out near RWF, so included a prob30 for TS there, with no mentions anywhere else.

KMSP . Remnants of activity currently in SD will move through MSP between about 16z and 19z. However, dry low level air looks to keep this as mostly virga. Some TS potential late this afternoon through the night, but coverage looks pretty sparse and confidence in its occurrence is low, so kept MSP dry for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri . Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA/MVFR late. Wind S 10 kts. Sat . Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. Wind SSW 10 kts. Sun . VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None.

SHORT TERM . MPG LONG TERM . JLT AVIATION . MPG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI18 mi21 minWSW 510.00 miFair77°F59°F54%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRGK

Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3SE5SW5S4CalmCalmCalmS4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5Calm
1 day agoNW3S3S5W3N8N6
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NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE6S8S10S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.