Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pepin, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 4:32PM Friday December 13, 2019 1:28 AM CST (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:01PMMoonset 8:58AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pepin, WI
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location: 44.46, -92.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 130513 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1113 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1053 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

The storm system that produced locally one to two inches of snow across central, east central Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin, was rapidly moving east across the Great Lakes. There was even localized 3 to 5 inch amounts in west central Wisconsin today as the storm intensified during the morning. Although there will be some clearing overnight, clouds will once again be on the increase as the next short wave moves southeast across the Northern Plains.

There are a few differences from Friday's system, vs today's in terms of snowfall amounts, timing and more wind.

One of the differences is snowfall amounts will be lighter, and generally an inch or less. Timing will be more during the midday/afternoon hours, vs. morning/early afternoon, and wind speeds will be slightly stronger following the snowfall.

Tomorrows system was already beginning to move out of the northern Rockies this afternoon. It seems to be more disorganized vs. todays system as the main circulation is not quite evident in water vapor imagery. Light snow was already developing along the front range of the Rockies as the system begins to move out into the plains.

There is consistency in the models for the onset of light snow across far western Minnesota during the pre dawn hours. There is also a small window where both strong lift associated with this short wave, and the dendritic growth zone are collocated. The window is roughly 3-6 hours long, and quickly moves across Minnesota, and into western Wisconsin by the afternoon. The main concern is when saturation occurs in the atmospheric column, which coincides with the dendritic growth zone. There is no doubt that light snow/flurries will occur for a brief period from west to east across Minnesota, and into western Wisconsin, the question is how much snowfall will occur. QPF amounts don't look overly impressive, especially during the morning. However, by the afternoon, models start to enhance this stronger dendritic growth zone feature while the atmospheric column saturates. Therefore, the best chance of one to locally two inches of snow will occur along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border, and eastward into parts of east central Minnesota during the afternoon. Before this enhancement, a light dusting of snow is more likely over western/southwestern Minnesota. There is also some evidences that once we lose the ice seeding clouds, weak lift may cause freezing drizzle to form, especially in west central Wisconsin where the best lift remains Friday evening. The best forecast is to add patchy freezing drizzle, but impacts should be minor.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

No significant changes to the long range forecast through next week. The weather pattern looks dry and cooler than normal. The coldest air will move in Saturday, with steady or falling temperatures expected. Wind chill values Saturday night will be 15 to 25 below zero, so getting close to wind chill advisory criteria across the northwest up near Alexandria MN. Sunday will remain cold, with afternoon highs remaining in the single digits.

Looking ahead, temperatures will moderate slightly toward the end of the week, but remain below the seasonal average for mid- December with highs only in the teens. There is a storm system that will move across the Ohio River Valley, but as of now no major systems are expected to impact the Upper Midwest this coming week.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1053 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

VFR conditions at initialization for all sites though there are some isolated pockets of MVFR across central-southern MN and western WI. Ceilings at all sites will drop to MVFR levels in advance of the clipper-type system expected to push across the region Friday and Friday night. As -SN begins, conditions will likely drop to IFR for a 3-6 hour period depending on the site. Conditions, mainly ceilings, will likely remain within IFR range (or very close to it) through Friday evening into early Saturday morning as the system exits to the Great Lakes.

KMSP . VFR to start but this is not expected to last more than a few hours before more sustained MVFR ceilings arrive overnight. The -SN, likely to start after the Friday morning push, is expected to be light, with only around an inch accumulation throughout this event. Not looking for any heavier bursts but some IFR visibilities cannot be ruled out.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat . MVFR/VFR cigs with -SN possible. Wind NW 10-15 kts. Sun . VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. Mon . VFR. Wind WNW 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None.

UPDATE . JPC SHORT TERM . JLT LONG TERM . JRB AVIATION . JPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI18 mi33 minN 07.00 miFair10°F6°F85%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRGK

Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6--E12
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1 day agoCalmW3W3NW4NW5CalmN3N4W4CalmCalmW3W4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmS4SE6E4E5E4E6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3W7W7W9W7W7W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.