Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 5:55 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  

FXUS63 KMPX 061130 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 630 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather this week with the focus on tonight into Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night.

- Gusty winds today, especially in western Minnesota where a Wind Advisory is in effect.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Today and tomorrow... The high pressure responsible for the great day yesterday will be off to our east over the Great Lakes. Then to the west we will have the low for our next system moving into the Northern Plains. With us in the center, this will increase the pressure gradient and give us a classic signal for gusty winds. This is only enhanced by the warm air advection that we will get from the southerly winds today. This advection will warm the lower atmosphere allowing for mixing, further increasing confidence that today will be a windy day. As mentioned in previous discussions, today will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the lower 70s. Temperatures won't get much warmer than that thanks to cloud cover moving west to east this morning through the afternoon as our next round of rain moves in. As you would expect with our 100 PoPs, rain is definite as all members in the LREF and HRRR show a line of showers passing through associated with the previously mentioned system. Where there remains more spread through is in QPF. The LREF remains higher with the previously mentioned quick 0.50-0.75" accumulations expected. HRRR PMM show a more widespread 0.25-0.50" accumulation with more localized totals of 0.5-1.0" accumulations. What is less certain is if the precipitation rates will maintain as the line moves deeper into Minnesota. This is where the difference is, as HRRR PMM keeps the higher totals more focused on southwestern Minnesota with a notable decrease in rain rate as it progresses deeper into the state. The risk for thunderstorms remains low as instability is limited, largely thanks to the time of day it passes through.
However with high winds aloft we could still see some gusty winds mix down in the showers. We will remain in the warm sector on Tuesday and near the frontal boundary so additional activity could occur. This is shown in the 06Z HRRR for example with another line of thunderstorms feeding off of marginal instability across eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin.
With limited shear it would be unlikely to see anything severe.

Wednesday through Sunday... The upper low will remain rooted over the north central US until it finally starts to move out Friday. This will give continued chances for unsettled weather.
Over the last few runs however ensembles have started to converge on Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night as the next best chance for activity. As the upper low continues to churn over us an embedded short wave in its circulation could have enough PVA associated with it to bring with it some rain. Currently the best chances here look to be along the I-90 corridor. There are more chances for precipitation after this, but there are very high spreads in the ensemble models so PoPs have been kept low.
Temperature wise, Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday in the mid 60s to lower 70s before Thursday ends up our coolest day of the week as we finally get to the cooler side of this system.
Temperatures still likely getting into the lower 60s though.
Temperatures will likely hold near normal Friday into the weekend. There is another round of synoptic forcing late Friday into early Saturday, but not much QPF in ensemble systems due to questionable moisture.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR through the day today with increasing winds. Winds will gust from the southeast 25 to 35 knots by this afternoon. Winds will continue to be elevated going into tonight. Rain will spread from west to east across all terminals tonight into Tuesday morning. Mainly MVFR during this rain with IFR possible in thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are more likely farther west at AXN and RWF as the chances for storms decrease as you head farther east since that will be later at night.

KMSP... Also VFR and gusting from the southeast. Low VFR or high MVFR tonight as a line of rain showers passes through. Chance for thunderstorms, but these are more likely to the west than at MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE PM...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA PM. Wind NE 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan- Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

La Crosse, WI,