Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:32AM||Sunset 5:12PM||Tuesday January 26, 2021 3:06 PM CST (21:06 UTC)||Moonrise 2:57PM||Moonset 6:12AM||Illumination 98%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pepin, WIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMPX 262034 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 234 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
SHORT TERM. (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 234 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
The main concern in the short term is cloud cover and the impact it could have on temperatures (primarily lows tonight). Latest Snow-Fog RBG imagery shows clouds have cleared across most of the area as the shortwave trough over the Great Lakes continues to move eastward. However, a secondary area of low clouds remains to our northwest, trapped beneath the subsidence inversion along the south/west side of the surface high dropping southeast from Manitoba. The guidance is varied in how it handles movement and/or redevelopment of low clouds tonight, but it seems unlikely that we won't be dealing with some cloud cover during the overnight hours. That being said, still went on the lower side of guidance for tonight's low temperatures (blended in a fair bit of the NBM 25th percentile). This results in below zero numbers for much of the area, and wind chills of 10 to 20 below north of I-94 late tonight into Wednesday morning. Should see more extensive and persistent scouring out of any lingering cloud cover on Wednesday as the surface high moves in and we start to see some height rises during the afternoon.
LONG TERM. (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 234 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
Main concern in the long term is the prolonged precipitation event possible this weekend. For temperatures, we will start Thursday on the seasonable side but warm to above normal temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period.
On Thursday, we will see upper-level ridging build in across the central CONUS as a longwave trough digs down the West Coast. This storm will eject east over the weekend and bring us another round of precipitation Saturday evening into Sunday.
There is a large amount of uncertainty with the evolution of this storm after it ejects out of the southwest CONUS. A surface low pressure is expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies and track through Iowa into the Ohio River Valley. This puts our forecast area on the northern fringe of the system, with the best forcing/heavier precipitation across Iowa and points south. As a result, 12Z guidance has lesser QPF amounts across the area, but temperature profiles should be cold enough for an all-snow p-type. It appears that most, if not all ensembles still have some QPF for the area, but the threat for a significant winter storm is decreasing. That does not mean we can write it off yet as we are several days out and there is still a large spread in ensemble solutions on both the GEFS and EPS.
After Sunday, it should be a quiet start to next week with temperatures slightly above normal.
AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1154 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
MVFR cigs will persist later into this afternoon as one continues farther east. These low-level clouds will eventually push east while breaking apart. Otherwise, scattered to broken mid to high-level clouds will remain over the region through tonight. CAMs hint that another layer of low-level clouds will shift through the region Wednesday morning. Currently have cigs as VFR but, multiple CAMs suggest that MVFR cigs near or below 2000 feet may be possible. Trends will need to be monitored to determine if the forecast needs future changes. Winds will remain northerly decreasing to below 5 knots during Wednesday.
KMSP . MVFR cigs near 2000 feet will hang around to 21z before moving east. Cigs will improve to VFR (4000 ft) in the late afternoon with additional rising into tonight. However, MVFR cigs look to return Wednesday morning as continued northerly flow drags the cloud deck near Lake Superior southward over MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu . VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. Fri . MVFR/IFR cigs. Wind SE 15G25 kts. Sat . MVFR/IFR cigs. Chance SN. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.
SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . BPH AVIATION . CTG
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|Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI||18 mi||72 min||N 4||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||21°F||10°F||63%||1021.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KRGK
Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||S||S||SE||SE||SE||E|
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