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FXUS63 KMPX 052326 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 526 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- After a cool and cloudy day today much warmer Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 50s by Thursday.

- A cooler pattern Friday into early next week with some chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Rest of Today through Thursday... The clearing will continue to move east this evening as higher pressure moves in and the system that brought us our snow moves out. As we head into tonight and tomorrow this higher pressure moves out, warm air advection starts to ramp up bringing our temperatures much above average. The warmth on Wednesday will be focused on western Minnesota, but by Thursday should be region wide. Also expecting a gusty day, as we often see on these warmer days thanks to more favorable mixing. Followed previous shifts with the NBM 75th percentile as the deterministic NBM has been slow to warm based on recent trends. The current forecast is not for record high temperatures, but it is within a few degrees such that if it over-performs the records could be within reach. As stated in the previous discussion the 850 mb temperatures in the models are very high for this time of year. With in the CMC, GEFS, and EPS ensembles 850 mb temperatures range from 10 to 16 Celsius.

Friday into Monday... By Friday the upper ridge breaks down and a cold air mass moves in from Canada. We have also been tracking a large system moving across CONUS. This system still looks most likely to miss us to the south and east, but some of the ensemble members have shown a slight shift to the northwest. If this trend continues parts of western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota could see some winter impacts from this system. Based on the timing of the cold air mass, Friday should remain above well normal temperatures. Even once we are in the main part of this colder air mass by Sunday temperatures currently should still remain near normal with high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Until we get a snowpack it will be hard for cold air to persist long enough for a long duration of below normal temperatures. Still looking like a clipper will move across the north central CONUS at the start of next week, but uncertainty in the track keeps confidence low at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

MVFR stratus deck east of I-35 is crawling eastward, but as a ridge builds in will continue through the night and eventually reaching RNH and EAU. Otherwise, winds will shift south and increase Wednesday with VFR conditions.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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