Monday, September21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake City, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:10PM Monday September 21, 2020 3:34 AM CDT (08:34 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 8:53PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City, MN
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location: 44.46, -92.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 210354 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1054 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

The main message of the forecast is that most locations will be dry and warm this coming week. However, confidence is increasing in showers and thunderstorms moving across the region on Saturday. Did increase pops higher than the blended guidance during this time period for parts of the forecast area.

Early afternoon GOES GeoColor satellite imagery showed clouds and smoke across the region. A weak frontal boundary was approaching from the west, and southerly winds were gusting 25 to 35 mph ahead of the front in the warm sector.

This front will gradually lose its identity as it drifts eastward while the upper level forcing lifts northeast into Canada. As a result, expect less showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight. The HiRes models have backed off on the precipitation, so suspect that this will be more of a scenario with radar echoes but nothing more than sprinkles for most location. Monday's weather looks to be similar only with lighter winds. Have decreased pops slightly as this too seem to be more of a light showers or sprinkles type set up.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

The only noteworthy change to the extended part of the forecast was to increase pops on Saturday. Until then, the central United States will be in a split flow regime with above normal temperatures. A shortwave trough will slide across the north on Wednesday, but the strongest forcing and highest chances for precipitation will be north of the forecast area.

Later in the week this split flow becomes better organized into a stronger upper level jet. On Saturday the models are in good agreement that a longwave trough will develop over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Rising air ahead of this trough should lead to a large area of clouds and precipitation. If this current pattern holds, expect most locations to see measurable rainfall. For now, due to timing and location uncertainties, only have a 30-40 percent chance of rain. The most likely timeframe would be Saturday.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

No changes to going TAFs, with nothing more than the occasional sprinkle within the best moisture transport of the LLJ, but dry air below 700mb (as seen on MPX 00z sounding), will keep things from getting any worse than that. Given the LLJ overhead, it will be another night of wind shear as well. This LLJ really starts to fade Monday morning, so winds will not be as strong on Monday as they were on Sunday. In addition, there will be potential for a batch of virga/sprinkles to continue much of the day from south central MN into western WI where a weak convergence zone will stall out. Again, chances for precip are to low to include any mention in the TAFs.

KMSP . Not much more to add. The threat for occasional sprinkles should be ending as this TAF period gets going, with the HRRR about the only model that continues to try and generate some showers near MSP on Monday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE . VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. WED . VFR. Wind SW 10G20 kts. THU . Chc MVFR. Wind S 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . JRB LONG TERM . JRB AVIATION . MPG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI16 mi40 minS 710.00 miFair63°F42°F49%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRGK

Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmE4CalmCalmE4SE8SE8S5SE6E6SE6CalmCalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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