Lake City, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake City, MN

June 21, 2024 9:21 PM CDT (02:21 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM
Moonrise 8:23 PM   Moonset 3:28 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 220042 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 742 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A flood watch remains in effect across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin into Saturday due to additional rainfall across saturated soils.

- After the rain ends on Saturday we should see a break Sunday into Monday.

- River flood concerns will extend into next week, with several local sites forecast to reach major flood stage.

UPDATE
Issued at 742 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Numerous thunderstorms are developing across southwest MN in response to a strengthening LLJ and associated moisture transport unimpeded by the lack of deep convection across northern IA. It remains to be be seen how far north this convection will develop, but it will be farther north than models indicate unless thunderstorms begin developing across northern IA in a more serious fashion. 3-hr NCRFC flash flood guidance from earlier this afternoon is as low as 1/4-1/2 inch from near Faribault to Mankato and St. James. It seems unlikely now convection will miss these areas this evening. Therefore, we are expecting the potential for serious impacts to these areas a bit later this evening. Considerable and life-threatening flash flooding is likely if training occurs there. Flash Flood Warnings are likely in the coming hours.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Rest of Today... Rainfall overnight trended farther to the south the originally expected. This trend was noticed in this last discussion with the decaying MCS following the better moisture across far southern Minnesota. Heavy rainfall occurred with this system with 2 to 5 inches measured. Additional showers and periodic thunderstorms occurred across parts of this same area later in the morning causing flash flooding, areal flooding, and river flooding across southern Minnesota.
Thankfully recent model trends have continued a southern trend with the heaviest rainfall. This is due to the expected location of the warm front. The I-90 corridor south into Iowa now looks like best location for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall due to this frontal placement. There remain some model spread that keeps this farther north, such that the watch remains in effect to the north. This is also largely due to saturated soils such that there would not need to be much rain for flooding too occur. This saturation is shown by current FFG values. However this threat remains more likely to the south as outlined in the SPC Mesoscale Discussion and southward shift of the WPC moderate ERO.

Saturday... The flood watch continues into Saturday as rain is expected to continue Saturday morning into afternoon (mainly WI for afternoon). This will be tied to the slow moving synoptic forcing with the surface low shifting into Wisconsin on Saturday. Rain chances should go down quickly on the western side of the low. Light rain and drizzle could persist on the western side of the low, but little additional rainfall is expected.

Sunday through Thursday... Sunday into Monday is when we finally get a dry period. This should allow some time for water to start to receded along the smaller streams and overland. Larger, especially mainstem rivers, will continue rises for a while as water flows into them. There are two times that could see another round of rain next week: a frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday and again near the end of the week. The first event Monday night into Tuesday should move through faster and should not be as long of a duration event as we have recently seen. Of course any thunderstorms could still have high rain rates and soils would still be more sensitive than normal.
Looking ahead to the end of the were there is still to much of a spread in the ensembles to have much confidence past saying that the Upper Midwest will see more rain.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are expected much of the night across southern MN or northern IA, mostly south of the TAF locations.
However, a cluster over southwest MN will potentially impact RWF early this evening and MKT later this evening. Cigs will slowly deteriorate to IFR through the night.

KMSP...Cigs will hover near 1kft for the next few hours, then showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms will approach late this evening. IFR likely thereafter. Showers will continue until 08-09Z overnight, then another break before the next and final round is possible Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc-TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Despite a lack of confidence in the location of highest QPF for tonight, we'll see enough rain in areas already having issues from last night's and this morning's rain to warrant an areal flood warning in south central MN. This warning will need to be watched for extension to the south depending on how the precip sets up along I-90, could also go through the night. River forecasts are mainly on track this afternoon, paying particular attention to the Cannon where training has occurred today, along with the mid/lower Minnesota where lots of inflow coming from the tribs south of Mankato.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Anoka-Blue Earth- Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele- Waseca-Washington-Wright.
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for Brown-Martin-Redwood- Renville-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Dunn-Eau Claire- Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KRGK RED WING RGNL,WI 15 sm26 minENE 067 smOvercast68°F66°F94%29.99
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