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FXUS63 KMPX 110449 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1049 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather this week with a stretch of well-above normal temperatures returning Thursday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A quiet week of weather is ahead with temperatures returning to well-above normal values late this week as strong ridging builds over the central CONUS.
Weak high pressure remains over the region into tomorrow afternoon, and light winds mean that the widespread stratus will stick around overnight & potentially through Most of Monday as well. A cold front passes through the region Monday night into Tuesday which will help to clear the clouds out, but the surface low well to our north means that little forcing for precipitation is expected, outside of a few flurries into Tuesday. Temperatures will be on the cooler side of normal Tuesday, but then warm through the rest of the week as strong ridging builds again over the central CONUS. Daytime highs in the 40s are expected area-wide Thursday through the weekend, with a run at 50 degrees possible Thursday when the ridge will be at its peak. Most guidance depicts a well-defined upper level low developing somewhere over the central to southern plains by next weekend, with the vast majority of solutions keeping it on a track well south of the Upper Midwest. Thus, we’re likely looking at a dry forecast over the next 7 days, with the main weather feature of interest being whether any record highs are within reach on Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1041 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Stubborn stratus deck continues to hang on with indications it may not scatter out for MSP and surrounding areas until early/mid Monday afternoon. Cigs are flirting MVFR/IFR threshold which should be the case through much of the overnight and Monday morning. A wind shift to northwesterly will clear any lingering moisture Monday evening, with gusts to 20-25 kts after 00Z-03Z.

KMSP...Low-end MVFR stratus will continue into early/mid Monday afternoon. Some brief dips into IFR are possible through this time, especially later tonight and early Monday morning. Winds currently light and variable will become SSWerly over the next few hours and continue through Monday. Cold frontal passage will bring winds around from the northwest 02Z-03Z time frame with gusts to 20 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. NW 10-15G20 kts.
WED...VFR. SW 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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