Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arcadia, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude mid-level ridging and attendant surface high pressure cross northern Michigan today.
Upstream troughing draped over the Rockies will become the focus as it shifts east over the next 24-48 hours -- aiding to propel low pressure development over the nation's midsection, which is expected to be situated over the mid-MS Valley/far southern Great Lakes by 12z Thursday. A dry airmass in place today will give way to gradually deeper moisture tonight with shower chances arriving from the southwest toward the pre-dawn hours Thursday.

Forecast Details: While little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated across northern Michigan today, the main concern this afternoon revolves around low RHs and potential fire weather concerns. While RHs may dip to near 25% across interior areas this afternoon and antecedent dry conditions still exist (especially where it didn't rain yesterday), light winds AOB 10 mph should limit the potential for higher end fire potential. High temps today in the 50s across much of northern lower, 40s near the lakeshores and across the eastern U.P.

High clouds continue to increase this evening and eventually thicken/lower tonight in advance of approaching low pressure from the southwest. Shower chances follow suit, primarily after 06z across southwestern areas, gradually building as far north as M-68/M- 32 by 12z Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

The latest extended guidance remains consistent with what we have seen over the last couple of days. Low pressure moves up from the south, tracking across the Thumb region Thursday evening. This would be a nearly perfect track for heavy snow across northwest lower Michigan during the winter months. Luckily it won't be nearly cold enough to produce any of the white stuff so expect just rain showers along with cool temperatures. Northern stream troughing then follows for Thursday night into Friday which again in the winter would mean lake effect snow showers but in this case likely only results in May rain showers. Ridging at the surface and aloft then builds in starting Saturday and this pattern likely holds through much if not all of the long term. One possible fly in the ointment could be a cutoff upper level trough which some guidance is insinuating might try to circumvent the ridge on or about Tuesday. Will discount this possibility for now and wait for better future model agreement. Any change in the forecast will fall on someone else as this is my last official day as a Forecaster here at APX :<). I am riding off into the sunset after this shift (well in this case it will be the sunrise). Temperatures will be unseasonably cool through Friday, slowly modify Saturday followed by building warmth Sunday into early next week (which will be welcomed by most people).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 605 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Stubborn MVFR cloud deck early this morning, primarily at CIU/PLN/APN should scatter out area-wide by midday leaving VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. Clouds do eventually thicken/lower again later tonight in advance of low pressure approaching from the southwest with -shra out of a mainly mid-cloud deck possible at mbL/TVC by 12z Thursday.
Light winds today with afternoon lake breeze development before turning out of the southeast tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.