Friday, August7, 2020
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arcadia, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:08PM Friday August 7, 2020 12:59 PM CDT (17:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 9:32AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ346 Expires:202008072300;;073907 Fzus53 Kapx 071348 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 948 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-072300- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 948 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.48, -86.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 071751 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 151 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 914 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Any morning fog/patchy stratus burning off quickly this morning. Expect mostly sunny skies with just a few higher based cumulus this afternoon. Upward temperature trend will continue, with highs this afternoon reaching the lower 80s for most.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

High pressure was over the region early this morning, right behind a departing shallow upper trough, which had earlier helped spark a few light showers in lake breeze convergence zones. Still some remnant cloudiness lingering around, but otherwise things are quiet. Low T/Td depressions in light winds are resulting in some patchy low lying fog. Pushing into the upper Mississippi valley, was some shallow mid level ridging and similar weather as to what is ongoing here in nrn Michigan. All of the convection remains scattered out in the Plains, tied to weak low pressure, a developing warm front, and in an air mass of increased moisture and instability.

It'll be quiet through at least tonight. The high pressure over the region will slowly work eastward through tonight, allowing that weak low pressure and warm front to lift north through the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Winds will be light and fairly variable in direction, before turning to lake breezes this afternoon. No showers expected, with just a scattered cumulus deck of clouds. Patchy fog in some low lying areas through daybreak, maybe that can happen tonight as well, but increased winds in the BL may not allow that.

Highs today will largely be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight will again range through the 50s, coolest in low lying areas.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High impact weather potential: Chance of thunderstorms Saturday night - Sunday night.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Saturday morning, weak ridging/nearly zonal flow is anticipated aloft across the western Great Lakes. This general flavor is anticipated to continue through the weekend, only to be occasionally disrupted by several passing mid-level shortwaves. First of such waves is expected to approach the forecast area from the west late Saturday/Saturday evening, followed by several additional perturbations Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Each perturbation and attendant surface reflection is expected to aid in increase precip chances across at least parts of northern Michigan, however, lots of uncertainties prevail through this time frame as the coverage and intensity of showers/storms locally will likely largely hinge on upstream convective development and evolution. None the less, above normal temperatures are expected to continue along with increasing humidity levels, especially Sunday as dew points surge to near 70 degrees.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Timing, coverage and intensity of any showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday.

The period starts under fairly tranquil conditions Saturday morning as surface high pressure settled across the area late this work week gradually shifts eastward through midday. For many, lots of sunshine will be the rule, along with occasionally breezy southwest return flow and high temperatures characterized as some 5-10 degrees above normal . ranging through the mid 80s. The exception to this is expected to lie across parts of eastern upper where mid-upper level height falls will be common ahead of the aforementioned initial shortwave expected to barrel across the Upper MS Valley/Lake Superior and eventually across the far northern reaches of the forecast area toward midday. Pocket of deeper moisture and more robust forcing will warrant at least chance pops north of the bridge by midday, and especially into the afternoon hours . along with more cloud cover.

Beyond this, confidence really diminishes as some guidance suggests the possibility of upstream convective development late in the day, that has the potential to spread southeastward across parts of northern lower Saturday night. Think the overall likelihood of something resembling a long-lived/widespread MCS is pretty low, but the chances aren't entirely zero given nocturnally increasing instability (albeit far from impressive) and slightly better deeper layer shear values on the order of 25-35 kts. At the very least, lingering deeper moisture and upper-level dynamics combined with the aforementioned destabilization will support PoPs across much of northern lower Saturday night.

Occasional shower/storm chances continue Sunday, most numerously across northeast lower as afternoon lake breeze development combined with weak support aloft from another mid-level perturbation and lots of low-level moisture may become the focus for scattered shower and storm development. Highs creep up several more degrees in the mid- upper 80s for most. Dew points varying from the upper 60s to low 70s will certainly make it feel sticky out there and lead to heat indices commonly in the low 90s despite occasional southwest/west wind gusts approaching 15 mph. Worth noting the potential for organized convective development to our west Sunday afternoon, and something we'll have to monitor over the next several days for any impacts locally Sunday night/early Monday. Current trends would suggest the bulk of convection able to survive eastward progress would either hold off until Monday or focus to our south, but we're certainly not out of the woods yet given a juicy and unstable airmass in place along with lots of uncertainties with respect to mesoscale details.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunderstorm chances continue Monday.

Needless to say given the uncertainties around convective evolution Sunday night that low confidence prevails Monday. However, Monday may wind up being the day with the most widespread shower/storm activity ahead of a cold front that's expected to roll across the region late Monday/Monday night. Suppose there's again a non-zero severe weather threat Monday given progged instability upwards of 1,000-1,500+ J/kg MLCAPE and somewhat better deep layer shear values approaching 35-40 kts. Worth keeping an eye on at least. This frontal passage should ultimately lead to quieter sensible weather Tuesday and beyond, along with somewhat cooler temperatures and less humidity through the middle of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 149 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VFR conditions to continue. High based cumulus today gives way to slowly increasing high and mid level clouds later tonight into Saturday morning. Light winds through tonight becoming a bit gusty out of the southwest Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High pressure over the region will slowly work eastward through tonight, allowing weak low pressure and a warm front to lift north through the western Great Lakes. Light winds and lake breezes today, will increase and become a little gusty out of the S/SW on Saturday, with a small chance for some low end advisory speeds and chop over primarily Lake Michigan. These southerly winds will also usher in increasing atmospheric moisture, which has resulted in a chance for showers later Saturday and into next work week. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, but no severe storms are expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . mb MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 17 mi79 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 1023.4 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 33 mi79 min SW 5.1 G 6 68°F 1023.4 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 38 mi65 min 71°F 56°F
45183 41 mi59 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 67°F1 ft

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
SW1
W3
G6
W3
G6
SW2
G5
W3
G6
SW1
SW1
W2
W1
--
E3
E2
E3
E5
E4
E4
E4
E3
E1
--
W1
W1
SW1
G4
W5
1 day
ago
SW1
G4
SW1
W3
G6
W3
SW2
W2
SW1
SW1
SW5
G9
SW6
G9
S7
E2
NE2
E3
E3
E3
NE2
E3
E3
NE3
E1
SW3
SW4
G7
SW1
G4
2 days
ago
NW7
G11
NW6
G11
N8
G14
N10
G15
N8
G14
N8
G11
N3
G11
N5
G8
NE3
G7
NE2
NE1
E1
NE2
NE1
NE1
NE1
E2
E3
E3
E2
SW2
W2
SW2
G6
W5

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI10 mi64 minWSW 610.00 miFair76°F51°F42%1022 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI14 mi63 minW 510.00 miFair81°F57°F44%1021.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrSW8SW7SW7W8W7W5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4W6
1 day agoW8W5W6W4W3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW4SW4SW8SW6
2 days agoN7N8N7
G14
N6NW7N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--NW5W7W8W5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.