Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 070346 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1046 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 930 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Lake effect snow showers continue to gradually diminish in coverage and intensity. Not much more than flurries left in northern lower MI; activity poking into eastern upper MI is a smidge healthier. High pressure in se Iowa will progress east, passing to our south in the morning. 1000-850mb winds are already starting to back, and the Superior connection into northern lower MI has already been severed. A wsw fetch will be in place by morning. That is at least a longer fetch on Lake MI; though Superior activity will cease, there is an opportunity for an uptick off of Lake MI. This will be especially the case very late (toward morning), when a shortwave arrives and interacts with developing warm advection. We already see some virga/very light snow well upstream over ne MN/far nw WI, and this should continue to slide ese-ward toward northern Lake MI overnight.

There have been enough breaks in the lake-induced cloud cover to lower temps into the teens in some spots (CAD/GLR). Current min temp forecast appears suitably chilly, and no major changes were made.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 321 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

. Diminishing lake effect tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon surface analysis reveals lake aggregate troughing across southeast Lake Superior down into Georgian Bay with northwesterly flow still intact down through Lower Michigan. NW flow lake effect snow showers persist. Overall light, but there are still a few heavier lake bands off Superior into parts of Chippewa county as well as down into parts of northern Lower Michigan, the most persistent and heavier of which crosses down through Antrim and Kalkaska counties.

Upstream, elongated axis of surface high pressure extends from the far western Great Lakes down through west Texas and is steadily building eastward into the region. This is another weak wave and area of warm advection/enhanced cloud tops sliding out of south-central Canada into the Upper Midwest that will move through northern Michigan later tonight into Saturday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal overall. Lake effect trends.

Diminishing lake effect snow showers are still anticipated as we head through the evening as surface high pressure, weakening and backing low level flow take their toll. But a few locations could yet see some light accumulations this evening. Then, aforementioned upstream weak wave and area of warm advection forcing will track through northern Michigan overnight into Saturday morning. This system does not pack nearly the punch that last nights system did. In fact, I can't find any upstream station reporting precip at this juncture. But, increasing cloud cover/moisture aloft and uptick in inversion heights should bring renewed lake effect snow showers into parts of the area. Specifically, areas along the Lake Michigan shoreline and up through the Straits into parts of eastern Upper Michigan as low level mean flow swings southwesterly. Those areas might see an inch, maybe two, tonight and Saturday combined snow accumulations.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 321 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

An upper-level trough to the east will exit off of the New England coast as another trough amplifies in central Canada. This will help deepen a cyclone formed in lee of the Canadian Rockies into the Hudson Bay area, swinging an associated cold front down across the US/Canada border in the northern Great Plains late Sunday. As surface high pressure departs to the east of the Great Lakes through the weekend, enhanced southerly flow along the back end could bring above freezing temps to the area out ahead of the cold front.

Relatively warm lake temps combined with low to mid-level warm air advection could produce some more light snow across far northwest lower/tip of the mitten/eastern upper MI into the evening Saturday amidst a short window of supportive moisture in the region. A chance for more light snow exists early Sunday morning across eastern upper, but accumulations for both of these rounds are expected to be near an inch or less. As previously mentioned, temps could climb above freezing for a time Sunday afternoon for most. However, portions of interior northern lower and eastern upper may struggle to do so in higher elevations. While widespread precipitation isn't expected largely until Monday, this warm up would provide a timeframe for a transition to a rain/mix for some areas before cooling down again Sunday night.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 321 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

High Impact Weather: Potential winter storm early week, along with frigid temps and lake effect to follow.

Sunday night, an upper-level jet max across the southern Great Plains will help develop a lee cyclone that will deepen and move to the northeast along the aforementioned boundary into the Great Lakes region Monday. Uncertainties in forecast strength and track prohibit specific details at this time. However, rain, snow, and gusty winds are expected to impact northern Michigan through Tuesday with this system. The potential for a wintry mix exists, but latest model guidance hints towards more rain/snow at this time. Details regarding areas of greatest impacts and snow accumulations will be more clear as the event draws closer. Frigid temps are expected behind this system with high temps in the teens and lows in the single digits with wind chills potentially below freezing through the end of the week. West to northwest winds will likely bring additional lake effect snow to northern Michigan during this time as well.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1046 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

MVFR cigs at times, mainly PLN/MBL and perhaps TVC.

High pressure moving into western IL will pass to the south of MI Saturday morning. Lake effect clouds and snow showers have been decaying. However, an uptick is expected toward dawn, as a weak upper level disturbance lends a hand. Some snow showers will be in the vicinity of mbL/PLN/TVC at times in the morning, and cigs will ride the border between VFR and MVFR. Cigs will improve later in the day.

Light winds overnight will become ssw Saturday. Those winds will be gusty at times in the afternoon evening, and LLWS will develop late in the evening.

MARINE. Issued at 321 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Gusty northwest winds diminish tonight and back west/southwesterly heading into Saturday. Current small craft advisories run through this evening and will likely be allowed to expire as advertised. But, southwest winds ramp back up later Saturday and especially Saturday night into Sunday and gale force gusts are looking likely for Saturday night into Sunday on Lake Michigan. Plan to maintain the gale watch for now. Later shifts can upgrade to a warning as we get closer to the event.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349. LM . GALE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for LMZ323. GALE WARNING from 9 PM Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday for LMZ341- 342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	17 mi	80 min	SSE 4.1 G 6	28°F			1028.8 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	33 mi	80 min	SE 2.9 G 5.1	29°F			1028.1 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	38 mi	66 min	E 2.9 G 5.1	28°F				18°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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W11 G15

NW10 G15

NW8 G15

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N8 G15

N7 G12

NW8 G13

NW5 G13

N9 G13

NW7 G14

NW8 G13

NW6 G13

NW5 G11

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N3 G6

NW4 G7

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NW10 G18

N5 G12

NW5 G10

N6 G10

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W9 G13

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NW11 G16

W11 G18

W13 G19

NW10 G16

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W14 G18

NW13 G22

NW7 G18

NW12 G20

NW9 G22

NW11 G19

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI	10 mi	64 min	N 0	7.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	25°F	19°F	79%	1027.4 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	14 mi	64 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	26°F	19°F	78%	1028.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)

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N6

N8 G18

N9 G18

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NW10 G20

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N7 G15

NW11 G17

NW12 G19

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NW12 G16

NW7 G15

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W12 G16

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NW7 G15

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NW9 G14

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NW11 G15

NW11 G19

NW16 G21

NW14 G37

NW14 G20

NW11 G18

NW14 G19

NW13 G21

NW10 G22

NW8 G21

NW12 G19

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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