Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Arcadia, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 5:37PM Saturday February 27, 2021 3:15 AM CST (09:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:02PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 244 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the morning then 20 knots early in the evening. Scattered rain and snow showers early in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:202102271545;;707105 FZUS53 KAPX 270744 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 244 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ346-271545-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, MI
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location: 44.48, -86.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 270734 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 234 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 230 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

. Mild temperatures to kick off the weekend .

High impact weather potential: A bit of light snow early this morning. Minimal accumulations and impacts expected.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Broad troughing encompassing much of western and central Canada down into the northern Rockies and northern Plains early this morning, with broad ridging extending the entirety of the eastern seaboard. Weak shortwave trough rotating northeast across the lower lakes in deep southwest flow between these features. System is a relatively moisture starved one, but just enough forcing/moisture to kick off a bit of light rain and snow across the central and lower lakes. Some of this light snow just now pushing into our southern areas, with minimal accumulations and impacts. Plenty of high and mid level clouds otherwise, and when combined with southerly low level flow, is resulting in a seasonably mild night across the Northwoods, with current readings mostly in the lower and middle 30s.

Shortwave trough will continue to rotate northeast across lower Michigan early this morning, exiting stage right by later this morning/early afternoon. Additional shortwave energy digging into the Rockies and out into the central Plains will help build mid and upper level heights across the northern Lakes tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing light snow this morning. Temperature and cloud trends through the near term.

Details:

Passing shortwave and attendant plume of steeper mid level lapse rates early this morning will swing an area of light precipitation across the area. Guidance derived sounding show this precipitation falling as light snow, with snow accumulations likely remaining under an inch ("heaviest" totals southeast half of the area). Expect snow to steadily end from southwest to northeast, resulting in dry conditions rapidly developing after sunrise (if not before). Post- system environment is definitely not cold enough for the development of any lake processes, and given rapid loss of moisture through the column, gotta believe most areas will see some sunshine this afternoon, especially so south of the big bridge. This will result in another relatively mild end of February day, with afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s . several degrees above normal for this time of year.

Ridging will dominate our weather tonight, with trends supporting any impacts from that next upstream wave holding off until after sunrise Sunday (other than some increasing clouds with time). Another fairly mild night, with lows mostly in the middle and upper 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 230 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

. Same Drizzle, Different Day .

High Impact Weather Potential . Freezing drizzle is possible on Sunday, impacting roadways. Accumulating snow Monday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible impacts . Sunday, the last two nights the models showed that the low level moisture would increase during the morning, before the mid-level moisture, and produce drizzle, and with the sfc temperatures below freezing, freezing drizzle would result. However tonight's GFS shows the moisture and precipitation not getting into the forecast area, until after 15z when temperatures will be above freezing. This meshes with the 00z/ECMWF as well. So it looks like it would be dry before 15z/Sun and then after the temperatures rise to well above freezing, the precipitation will fall as rain. Sunday night, the system moves out, and there will probably be a short break before the 850 mb temperatures fall late Sunday night/Monday morning so that lake effect snow starts. Monday, a 500 mb shortwave trough moves through the region, and coupled with the -15c and cooling 850 mb temperatures lake effect/enhanced snow will be falling, with some bands expected to be significant. Monday afternoon will probably see the snow diminishing, but not stopping until sometime in the evening or even overnight. 850 mb temperatures warm to above -10c by 12z/Tue, so the instability with the lakes should be on the wane.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 230 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Extended (Tuesday through Friday) . Tuesday and Wednesday look dry, as the upper and sfc ridges are over the region. Thursday will probably be dry as well, but there is some cyclogenesis north of the ANJ, as the baroclinic zone sharpens up. However, the moisture in is pretty sparse, especially in the 700-500 mb layer. The ECMWF no longer has the cut off low at 500 mb, and has the region dry as well. Friday, looks like it cloud also be dry as the ridge in the Plains leans over into the Upper Great Lakes. The ECMWF does push a shortwave through Friday evening, which could bring something, but based on the trends of the ECMWF the last few nights, think this may go away and look like the GFS.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1151 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Spotty -SHSN overnight. LLWS ending at TVC/MBL/PLN overnight.

An upper-level disturbance will bring sct -SHSN into MI late tonight. The most widespread precip will be in central/southern lower MI. mbL/APN are the most likely spots to see -SHSN and associated brief vsby restrictions. APN is likely to see a period of MVFR cigs Sat morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR, and the risk for -DZ/-FZDZ looks less than earlier expected.

Southerly winds tonight will be a bit brisk, becoming sw and w on Saturday. LLWS at TVC/MBL/PLN ending before daybreak.

MARINE. Issued at 230 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

No significant marine impacts to start the weekend as a weak pressure spreads overhead. Steadily deepening low pressure expected to cut across upper Michigan on Sunday will likely bring the return of small craft advisory conditions, especially during the afternoon and evening when winds become gusty out of the northwest.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 17 mi36 min S 1.9 G 6 34°F 1010.5 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 38 mi46 min SSW 6 G 9.9 32°F 29°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI10 mi21 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F22°F58%1009.5 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI14 mi20 minS 410.00 miOvercast33°F20°F58%1010 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3E3S8SW6W14
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N6N6N3N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.