Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 270734 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 234 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 230 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

. Mild temperatures to kick off the weekend .

High impact weather potential: A bit of light snow early this morning. Minimal accumulations and impacts expected.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Broad troughing encompassing much of western and central Canada down into the northern Rockies and northern Plains early this morning, with broad ridging extending the entirety of the eastern seaboard. Weak shortwave trough rotating northeast across the lower lakes in deep southwest flow between these features. System is a relatively moisture starved one, but just enough forcing/moisture to kick off a bit of light rain and snow across the central and lower lakes. Some of this light snow just now pushing into our southern areas, with minimal accumulations and impacts. Plenty of high and mid level clouds otherwise, and when combined with southerly low level flow, is resulting in a seasonably mild night across the Northwoods, with current readings mostly in the lower and middle 30s.

Shortwave trough will continue to rotate northeast across lower Michigan early this morning, exiting stage right by later this morning/early afternoon. Additional shortwave energy digging into the Rockies and out into the central Plains will help build mid and upper level heights across the northern Lakes tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing light snow this morning. Temperature and cloud trends through the near term.

Details:

Passing shortwave and attendant plume of steeper mid level lapse rates early this morning will swing an area of light precipitation across the area. Guidance derived sounding show this precipitation falling as light snow, with snow accumulations likely remaining under an inch ("heaviest" totals southeast half of the area). Expect snow to steadily end from southwest to northeast, resulting in dry conditions rapidly developing after sunrise (if not before). Post- system environment is definitely not cold enough for the development of any lake processes, and given rapid loss of moisture through the column, gotta believe most areas will see some sunshine this afternoon, especially so south of the big bridge. This will result in another relatively mild end of February day, with afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s . several degrees above normal for this time of year.

Ridging will dominate our weather tonight, with trends supporting any impacts from that next upstream wave holding off until after sunrise Sunday (other than some increasing clouds with time). Another fairly mild night, with lows mostly in the middle and upper 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 230 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

. Same Drizzle, Different Day .

High Impact Weather Potential . Freezing drizzle is possible on Sunday, impacting roadways. Accumulating snow Monday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible impacts . Sunday, the last two nights the models showed that the low level moisture would increase during the morning, before the mid-level moisture, and produce drizzle, and with the sfc temperatures below freezing, freezing drizzle would result. However tonight's GFS shows the moisture and precipitation not getting into the forecast area, until after 15z when temperatures will be above freezing. This meshes with the 00z/ECMWF as well. So it looks like it would be dry before 15z/Sun and then after the temperatures rise to well above freezing, the precipitation will fall as rain. Sunday night, the system moves out, and there will probably be a short break before the 850 mb temperatures fall late Sunday night/Monday morning so that lake effect snow starts. Monday, a 500 mb shortwave trough moves through the region, and coupled with the -15c and cooling 850 mb temperatures lake effect/enhanced snow will be falling, with some bands expected to be significant. Monday afternoon will probably see the snow diminishing, but not stopping until sometime in the evening or even overnight. 850 mb temperatures warm to above -10c by 12z/Tue, so the instability with the lakes should be on the wane.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 230 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Extended (Tuesday through Friday) . Tuesday and Wednesday look dry, as the upper and sfc ridges are over the region. Thursday will probably be dry as well, but there is some cyclogenesis north of the ANJ, as the baroclinic zone sharpens up. However, the moisture in is pretty sparse, especially in the 700-500 mb layer. The ECMWF no longer has the cut off low at 500 mb, and has the region dry as well. Friday, looks like it cloud also be dry as the ridge in the Plains leans over into the Upper Great Lakes. The ECMWF does push a shortwave through Friday evening, which could bring something, but based on the trends of the ECMWF the last few nights, think this may go away and look like the GFS.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1151 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Spotty -SHSN overnight. LLWS ending at TVC/MBL/PLN overnight.

An upper-level disturbance will bring sct -SHSN into MI late tonight. The most widespread precip will be in central/southern lower MI. mbL/APN are the most likely spots to see -SHSN and associated brief vsby restrictions. APN is likely to see a period of MVFR cigs Sat morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR, and the risk for -DZ/-FZDZ looks less than earlier expected.

Southerly winds tonight will be a bit brisk, becoming sw and w on Saturday. LLWS at TVC/MBL/PLN ending before daybreak.

MARINE. Issued at 230 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

No significant marine impacts to start the weekend as a weak pressure spreads overhead. Steadily deepening low pressure expected to cut across upper Michigan on Sunday will likely bring the return of small craft advisory conditions, especially during the afternoon and evening when winds become gusty out of the northwest.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . JZ MARINE . mb

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	17 mi	36 min	S 1.9 G 6	34°F			1010.5 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	38 mi	46 min	SSW 6 G 9.9	32°F				29°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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SW9

S4 G8

E2

E4

SE5 G10

S12 G17

S9 G15

S12 G16

S11 G16

S11 G15

S10 G15

SW8 G11

SE7 G11

SE5 G10

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SE4 G8

SE2

SE3 G8

S4

SE2 G5

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1 day ago

E2

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SE3 G6

SW8 G12

SW6 G9

W10 G14

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S2

S9 G16

S11

SW11 G14

W9

NW4 G7

NW6 G13

NW7 G12

NW9 G18

N7 G16

NW10 G16

N5 G12

N5 G13

N8 G13

N3 G13

NE4 G9

N2 G5

NE2

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E2

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI	10 mi	21 min	S 6	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	35°F	22°F	58%	1009.5 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	14 mi	20 min	S 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	33°F	20°F	58%	1010 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)

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SW3

S4

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S14 G21

S16 G24

S12 G20

SW11 G21

SW9 G17

SW13 G21

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SE10 G17

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Calm

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1 day ago

Calm

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SE3

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W14 G17

W11 G16

NW14 G19

NW14 G19

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NW10 G14

N11 G15

N10 G17

N11 G18

N10 G17

N9 G17

N7 G18

NW10 G16

N10 G18

N6

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N3

N5

N3

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for

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