Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arcadia, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:42PM Saturday August 24, 2019 2:50 PM CDT (19:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:57PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:201908242315;;138268 Fzus53 Kapx 241501 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 1101 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-242315- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1101 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Today..East wind 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, MI
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location: 44.48, -86.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241838
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
238 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Update
Issued at 1139 am edt Sat aug 24 2019
morning composite analysis reveals a sharp short-wave ridge axis
up through the midwest far western great lakes this morning, part
of a omega block wannabe pattern currently set-up across the
region. Strong surface high pressure is centered just northeast
of state with northeasterly flow cycling cool dry air through the
region. Skies were mainly clear earlier this morning, save for
some lake streamers off lake huron into the saginaw bay oscoda
region. Inland CU deck is now in the process of forming.

A nice day is on tap overall. Developing CU field will continue to
expand a bit over the next few hours but likely begin to "mix out"
through the afternoon as we tap some very dry air aloft (per this
mornings apx sounding). Mostly sunny overall although some spots
might see some period of partly sunny skies. With a bit more sun
and slowly moderating low level temperatures, high temps today
will be a little warmer compared to Friday although still off the
mark for late august normal highs.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 233 am edt Sat aug 24 2019
impactful weather: minimal none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
early this morning, mid level ridging was moving in overhead, while
a vast area sfc high pressure and dry air was dominating the weather
from quebec all the way down into the mid mississippi ohio valleys.

Skies were pretty darn clear, and winds were light calm, with areas
of fog developing.

The areas of fog will burn off quickly after sunrise, with a day of
plenty of Sun anticipated, more than yesterday. Just some typical
cumulus again, while all of the instability and deeper moisture well
south and west of here. Light east winds will turn to lake breezes
this afternoon, while highs top out in the beautiful low to mid
70s. Cumulus fades with nightfall, and more clear skies for tonight.

Winds remain light for good radiational cooling and likely more
areas of fog. Lows mostly in the low to mid 40s.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 233 am edt Sat aug 24 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: mid-level ridge axis centered across
northern michigan tonight into early Sunday will gradually shift
eastward through early next week, replaced by height falls
associated with an approaching vertically stacked low pressure
system set to trek across southern canada during the early to middle
portions of next week. Initial return flow will be relatively weak
through the day Sunday before gradually strengthening Sunday night
into Monday morning as the pressure gradient tightens between
departing surface high pressure and an incoming cold front attendant
to aforementioned low pressure.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: increasing pops, mainly Monday
afternoon.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated across northern
michigan Sunday through Sunday night as sfc high pressure gradually
presses eastward toward the northeast to wrap up the weekend. High
temperatures Sunday expected to range from the upper 70s to low 80s
area-wide, and with a rather paltry airmass remaining in place -
lots of sunshine is expected to be the rule. More mild overnight
lows than the last several nights... Bottoming out in the 50s to
around 60 degrees for most.

Attention rather quickly turns toward Monday with return flow
ramping up in earnest across the local area, evident by increasing
deep layer moisture fields (pws progged above 1.50 inches by midday
Monday). As was alluded to by the prior discussion, guidance has
trended a bit quicker with precip arrival than was noted just 24
hours ago, in particular lifting southern stream energy into the
southern great lakes quite a bit quicker. Certainly not all guidance
is on board with this thought and would continue to tend to favor a
bit of a slower solution, with the idea of showers sneaking into
parts of the forecast area Monday afternoon before becoming more
widespread Monday night into Tuesday morning. High temperatures once
again in the upper 70s and low 80s across n. Mi on Monday.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 233 am edt Sat aug 24 2019
high impact weather potential: scattered thunderstorms possible
Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Latest trends continue to suggest cold frontal passage still
appearing most likely early in the day Tuesday, with showers
becoming likely Monday night through Tuesday morning... Potentially
with some much-needed healthy rainfall totals across parts of the
area. Suppose there could be a few embedded rumbles of thunder given
the progged strength of forcing for ascent expected to slide across
the region, despite poor frontal timing. Beyond Tuesday morning
through midweek, can't rule out an occasional shower across parts of
the area given lobes of deeper moisture expected to pinwheel around
larger scale parent troughing expected to be in place across the
northern tier of the conus. This to potentially be followed by
another frontal passage late in the week, although confidence is
rather low in that solution.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 238 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019
strong high pressure across the region will provide solidVFR
conditions through Sunday morning. That said, some shallow fog
will again be possible particularly across north-central and ne
lower michigan.

Otherwise, light winds this afternoon and tonight. SE winds pick
up some Sunday afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 233 am edt Sat aug 24 2019
a large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the great
lakes today with plenty of Sun and light winds turning out of the
east, then lake breezes for this afternoon. The high pressure slides
east of the great lakes tonight, with winds increasing and turning
more out of the SE for Sunday night into Monday. No headlines
foreseen through Sunday, but maybe some sporadic advisory level
gusts are possible Sunday night, but chances are better for
Monday Monday night when the next chance of showers and possible
storms arrive.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Ba
near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Ba
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 17 mi70 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 71°F 1027.1 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 33 mi70 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 70°F 1026.8 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 38 mi56 min WNW 7 G 12 68°F 52°F
45024 39 mi30 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 64°F1 ft1024.9 hPa54°F
45183 41 mi50 min N 9.7 G 12 67°F 68°F1028 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI10 mi55 minNNW 910.00 miFair74°F46°F38%1026.4 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI14 mi54 minN 710.00 miFair72°F53°F52%1025.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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N7N5N5N4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmW6W10N6
1 day agoNE5N8
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NE7N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NE4N6N7N9N9N6
2 days agoNW6N7W4CalmN3NE4N4CalmN4N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N7N7N6N6N9
G14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.