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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 071751 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 151 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 914 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Any morning fog/patchy stratus burning off quickly this morning. Expect mostly sunny skies with just a few higher based cumulus this afternoon. Upward temperature trend will continue, with highs this afternoon reaching the lower 80s for most.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

High pressure was over the region early this morning, right behind a departing shallow upper trough, which had earlier helped spark a few light showers in lake breeze convergence zones. Still some remnant cloudiness lingering around, but otherwise things are quiet. Low T/Td depressions in light winds are resulting in some patchy low lying fog. Pushing into the upper Mississippi valley, was some shallow mid level ridging and similar weather as to what is ongoing here in nrn Michigan. All of the convection remains scattered out in the Plains, tied to weak low pressure, a developing warm front, and in an air mass of increased moisture and instability.

It'll be quiet through at least tonight. The high pressure over the region will slowly work eastward through tonight, allowing that weak low pressure and warm front to lift north through the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Winds will be light and fairly variable in direction, before turning to lake breezes this afternoon. No showers expected, with just a scattered cumulus deck of clouds. Patchy fog in some low lying areas through daybreak, maybe that can happen tonight as well, but increased winds in the BL may not allow that.

Highs today will largely be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight will again range through the 50s, coolest in low lying areas.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High impact weather potential: Chance of thunderstorms Saturday night - Sunday night.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Saturday morning, weak ridging/nearly zonal flow is anticipated aloft across the western Great Lakes. This general flavor is anticipated to continue through the weekend, only to be occasionally disrupted by several passing mid-level shortwaves. First of such waves is expected to approach the forecast area from the west late Saturday/Saturday evening, followed by several additional perturbations Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Each perturbation and attendant surface reflection is expected to aid in increase precip chances across at least parts of northern Michigan, however, lots of uncertainties prevail through this time frame as the coverage and intensity of showers/storms locally will likely largely hinge on upstream convective development and evolution. None the less, above normal temperatures are expected to continue along with increasing humidity levels, especially Sunday as dew points surge to near 70 degrees.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Timing, coverage and intensity of any showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday.

The period starts under fairly tranquil conditions Saturday morning as surface high pressure settled across the area late this work week gradually shifts eastward through midday. For many, lots of sunshine will be the rule, along with occasionally breezy southwest return flow and high temperatures characterized as some 5-10 degrees above normal . ranging through the mid 80s. The exception to this is expected to lie across parts of eastern upper where mid-upper level height falls will be common ahead of the aforementioned initial shortwave expected to barrel across the Upper MS Valley/Lake Superior and eventually across the far northern reaches of the forecast area toward midday. Pocket of deeper moisture and more robust forcing will warrant at least chance pops north of the bridge by midday, and especially into the afternoon hours . along with more cloud cover.

Beyond this, confidence really diminishes as some guidance suggests the possibility of upstream convective development late in the day, that has the potential to spread southeastward across parts of northern lower Saturday night. Think the overall likelihood of something resembling a long-lived/widespread MCS is pretty low, but the chances aren't entirely zero given nocturnally increasing instability (albeit far from impressive) and slightly better deeper layer shear values on the order of 25-35 kts. At the very least, lingering deeper moisture and upper-level dynamics combined with the aforementioned destabilization will support PoPs across much of northern lower Saturday night.

Occasional shower/storm chances continue Sunday, most numerously across northeast lower as afternoon lake breeze development combined with weak support aloft from another mid-level perturbation and lots of low-level moisture may become the focus for scattered shower and storm development. Highs creep up several more degrees in the mid- upper 80s for most. Dew points varying from the upper 60s to low 70s will certainly make it feel sticky out there and lead to heat indices commonly in the low 90s despite occasional southwest/west wind gusts approaching 15 mph. Worth noting the potential for organized convective development to our west Sunday afternoon, and something we'll have to monitor over the next several days for any impacts locally Sunday night/early Monday. Current trends would suggest the bulk of convection able to survive eastward progress would either hold off until Monday or focus to our south, but we're certainly not out of the woods yet given a juicy and unstable airmass in place along with lots of uncertainties with respect to mesoscale details.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunderstorm chances continue Monday.

Needless to say given the uncertainties around convective evolution Sunday night that low confidence prevails Monday. However, Monday may wind up being the day with the most widespread shower/storm activity ahead of a cold front that's expected to roll across the region late Monday/Monday night. Suppose there's again a non-zero severe weather threat Monday given progged instability upwards of 1,000-1,500+ J/kg MLCAPE and somewhat better deep layer shear values approaching 35-40 kts. Worth keeping an eye on at least. This frontal passage should ultimately lead to quieter sensible weather Tuesday and beyond, along with somewhat cooler temperatures and less humidity through the middle of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 149 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VFR conditions to continue. High based cumulus today gives way to slowly increasing high and mid level clouds later tonight into Saturday morning. Light winds through tonight becoming a bit gusty out of the southwest Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High pressure over the region will slowly work eastward through tonight, allowing weak low pressure and a warm front to lift north through the western Great Lakes. Light winds and lake breezes today, will increase and become a little gusty out of the S/SW on Saturday, with a small chance for some low end advisory speeds and chop over primarily Lake Michigan. These southerly winds will also usher in increasing atmospheric moisture, which has resulted in a chance for showers later Saturday and into next work week. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, but no severe storms are expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . mb MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	17 mi	79 min	WNW 1.9 G 2.9	73°F			1023.4 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	33 mi	79 min	SW 5.1 G 6	68°F			1023.4 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	38 mi	65 min		71°F				56°F
45183	41 mi	59 min	WNW 7.8 G 9.7	68°F	67°F	1 ft

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI	10 mi	64 min	WSW 6	10.00 mi	Fair	76°F	51°F	42%	1022 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	14 mi	63 min	W 5	10.00 mi	Fair	81°F	57°F	44%	1021.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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