Monday, August19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Jericho, VT

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:54PM Monday August 19, 2019 12:03 PM EDT (16:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:02PMMoonset 9:45AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jericho, VT
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location: 44.49, -73     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 191342
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
942 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

A broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move
across the north country this morning with brief heavy rainfall
and localized wind gusts to 30 mph. Additional afternoon showers
and storms are possible, mainly over eastern vermont.

Temperatures will warm well into the 80s with a few readings
approaching 90 degrees in the champlain and lower connecticut
valley. A dry and warm day is expected on Tuesday, followed by
more chances for showers and storms on Wednesday into Thursday.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 937 am edt Monday... Weak mid-level vort crossing the north
country from west-east is associated with decaying lines of
showers across n-central nern vt and over st. Lawrence county at
1330z. Residual mid-level clouds may slightly limit full surface
heating, and have reduced the forecast high at btv this afternoon
to 87f. Moderately high humidity will result in pockets of heat
index values in the 92 to 94 degree range this afternoon,
especially across the southern valleys.

Previous discussion... Forecast challenge continues to be
convective chances and associated pops today. Water vapor shows
modest height falls across the eastern great lakes associated
with channeled 700 to 500mb vort, along with a ribbon of
enhanced mid level moisture. Regional mosaic radar indicates a
broken line of showers with embedded storms approaching the slv
early this morning. Based on high res convective allowing
models, expect precip acrs dacks btwn 09z-11z, cpv 11z-13z,
central vt 13z-14z, and thru nek eastern vt by 16z. Laps shows
limited instability ahead of this line with CAPE values
generally <500 j kg, but some elevated instability is present.

Thinking brief heavy rainfall and localized gust to 30 mph
possible within the heavier convective elements this morning.

Meanwhile, water vapor shows large area of subsidence dry air
aloft building behind short wave energy, which should result in
clearing skies this aftn. This clearing will help warm temps
quickly into the 80s with a few locations near 90f in the
cpv lower ct river valley. The sfc heating will help create sfc
based CAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 j kg across cpv and
portions of vt, while 0 to 6km shear is in the 35 to 40 knot
range. These parameters would support some organized convection,
however developing warm nose cap around 800mb, along with deep
dry layer btwn 850 and 300mb with limited upper level forcing
will result in minimal activity this aftn evening. Have mention
only schc low chc (15% to 30%) pops from eastern dacks into vt
thru this aftn evening.

Tonight into Tuesday... Relatively quiet period of weather
anticipated with building heights and modest cap in place,
combined with dry air will limit threat for showers storms.

Cannot completely rule out a stray shower storm on tues aftn
during peak heating instability across the eastern dacks or
higher trrn of green mtns. The best convergence will be
associated with lee side trof lake breeze boundary interaction
on the west side of the cpv. 925mb to 850m thermal profiles are
slightly cooler on tues with highs generally in the upper 70s
to mid 80s anticipated, with some drier dwpts lower humidity
values as better mixing occurs during the aftn hours. Some areas
of patchy fog is likely tonight, with clearing skies and light
winds, especially as cross over values are reached in many
locations. Lows a little cooler than recent nights with readings
from the mid 40s slk to lower 60s cpv.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 351 am edt Monday... Still a tricky forecast for Wednesday with
variability among the models regarding precipitation convection
and timing of the system. This is largely due in part to how
each model is handling upstream convection over ohio river
valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. Current run of NAM now
depicts convection lifting northward across the area with gfs
maintaining the more southern track of convection and boundary
and ECMWF somewhere in between (however the actual frontal
passage on euro is now not until 18z Thursday)... Have maintained
relative consistency with previous forecasts until there is
better consensus. Regardless of forcing mechanism, I do think
there will be precipitation around during the daytime on
Wednesday. Additionally, with such differences among the models
it is difficult to determine the potential for severe weather.

Given trends in moisture profiles and available CAPE shear
thinking can't rule out some stronger storms with primary threat
being wet microbursts.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 351 am edt Monday... Lingering moisture and upper level
troughing will keep chances for precipitation around on Thursday,
especially across the northern tier. Better cold air advection
arrives Thursday night so temperatures will be near normal in the
mid to upper 70s. Friday will bring "fall-like" weather with breezy
nw winds and variably cloudy skies. Gfs-mos guidance is coldest
among suite with highs in the mid to upper 60s valleys and 40s
mountains, however have ran with a blend of euro MOS for highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. Certainly feels like we're
beginning to make the turn. After this, quiet weather is expected
for the remainder of the long term with canadian high pressure in
control of the weather. Temperatures warm each day of the weekend
with near seasonable highs in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows
will be once again pleasant in the upper 40s to low mid 50s.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Through 12z Tuesday... Radar shows a broken line of showers
across the dacks approaching the cpv terminals in the next 1 to
2 hours. Have utilized tempo group to indicate potential MVFR
cigs vis in heavier showers for slk pbg and btv. Breezy
south southwest winds will develop btwn 12-15z at slk mpv mss
and btv with localized gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range. These
winds will decrease around sunset this evening and with clearing
skies, expect some patchy fog to develop at slk mpv and probably
pbg given trends the previous couple of nights. Ifr with periods
of lifr vlifr conditions expected after 06z.


Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra, chance tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
shra, slight chance tsra.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance shra.

Lake wind advisory has been issued as crf is sustain at 25
knots this morning. Expecting a 2 to 4 hour of lake wind
advisory winds this morning, before a gradual shift to the west
and values becoming 10 to 20 knots by midday. Waves generally 1
to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet in the open waters.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Taber
near term... Banacos taber
short term... Larocca
long term... Larocca
aviation... Taber

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 22 mi64 min 67°F 72°F1012.4 hPa (+0.0)
45166 25 mi34 min SW 14 G 18 73°F 74°F1 ft67°F
45188 35 mi64 min N 1.9 74°F 71°F1015.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT8 mi2.2 hrsSSW 12 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F66°F72%1012.5 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT21 mi2.2 hrsN 410.00 miFair73°F66°F81%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS6S7
1 day agoS8
2 days agoS11S10S8S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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