Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:23AM||Sunset 7:27PM||Sunday April 5, 2020 4:44 PM EDT (20:44 UTC)||Moonrise 4:22PM||Moonset 5:32AM||Illumination 95%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winooski, VTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBTV 052008 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 408 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020
SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will push east of Vermont tonight. A few lingering, light showers will give way to partial clearing after midnight, followed by mostly sunny and dry conditions for Monday. High temperatures on Monday will be near seasonal averages for early April, generally in the low to mid 50s, and then in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday. A series of frontal systems brings increasing chances for precipitation Wednesday, and again during the daylight hours Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 346 PM EDT Sunday . Decaying cold front is shifting slowly ewd across central and eastern VT at 19Z. As expected, the frontal boundary has been accompanied by very little fanfare over than abundant stratus in the 2-3kft layer. Still noting spotty radar reflectivity, with just a few sprinkles or light rain showers next few hours. Upstream satellite trends indicates overcast conditions all the way back into the Ottawa Valley, with rapid clearing west from there. Anticipate overcast generally persisting through midnight, then will see clearing with clouds holding on longest across the Adirondacks and Green Mtns into nern VT. With only modest low-level CAA overnight and NW winds continuing 5-10 mph, but expecting temperatures to drop too significantly. Pre-dawn lows should range from 30-35F, except locally in the upper 20s in the Adirondacks. May see a few snow flurries in the higher terrain before clouds dissipate in the mtns during the pre-dawn hours.
Monday will feature dry/tranquil conditions with slow-moving sfc anticyclone across the ern Great Lakes. We'll maintain a nwly gradient flow, with sfc winds generally 10-15 mph during the peak heating hours. Steep aftn lapse rates will promote a few gusts to 20 mph. PoPs NIL with mostly clear skies for the balance of the day. 850mb temps only -2C to -4C, so despite the sunshine, should be a few degrees cooler than Sunday with aftn highs mostly in the 50-55F range, and upper 40s in the 1-2kft elevational band.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 346 PM EDT Sunday . Sfc anticyclone remains in control of our weather Monday night and Tuesday. A few embedded shortwave troughs in moderately strong nwly mid-level flow will bring an increase in clouds, and just a slight chance of a rain or snow shower across the higher terrain late Monday night. Otherwise, quiet Monday night and Tuesday with temperatures near seasonable levels for early April. Tuesday night, a slightly stronger shortwave trough in WNWLY flow and sfc low reflection passing across the srn tier of NY will bring increasing clouds to our region over the course of Tuesday night. Appears the Adirondacks into Rutland/Windsor counties in VT have the best chance of some light stratiform precipitation late. The 12Z GFS and GEM are the furthest north and most progressive with this system, while the 12Z NAM and ECMWF suggest a drier soln. At this point, included just 20-40 PoPs across the srn half of our forecast area toward daybreak. The conditional probability of snow is relatively high above 1000ft based on expected thermal fields. If precipitation can nudge far enough northward, could see a coating to an inch of snow at the higher elevations during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday night across the Adirondacks into the srn Green Mtns. Lows Tuesday night generally near freezing, except mid-upr 20s across far nern VT where thinner cloud cover is expected during the first half of the night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 346 PM EDT Sunday . On Wednesday, a strengthening low pressure system will pass to our south. Outside of that, poor agreement among models exists, making it difficult to justify increasing PoPs above chance. The drier camp made up of ECMWF and NAM guidance would see precipitation in southern Vermont, with mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. At the same time, GFS and Canadian models have widespread precipitation and a deep cloud layer across our entire region. In fact, the latest GFS data bullseyes the center of our region with a cold rain or wet snow with upwards of a third of an inch of QPF associated with a secondary area of low-level convergence. Best consensus still favors southernmost Windsor and Rutland counties in Vermont closer to the main low pressure system, but in deference to the wetter GFS and Canadian, have light - under 0.05" - QPF south of Plattsburgh, NY and east of Franklin County, NY from 8 AM to 2 PM. During this time, snowfall is forecast for only the highest terrain, but would not be surprised to see accumulating snow at mid-slope locations as maximum wet bulb temperature aloft is below zero during the event. Snow levels at 11 AM may be in the 1500 to 2500 ft range and rising. Any precipitation lingering past mid-afternoon, most likely in south central Vermont and east of the Greens, probably will end as light rain by evening as weak surface high pressure begins exerting its influence. Temperatures are forecast to be held down by a thick cloud deck and precipitation, but some recovery to near normal is expected during the afternoon, with max temperatures ranging from 45 to 50 degrees most places. With a lack of a strong high pressure building in to the north, winds will be fairly light. Wednesday night cloud cover lingers due to the presence of light southerly winds, so minimum temperatures should be in the 30s and have trended towards warmest guidance.
For Thursday, a deepening low pressure system, potentially down to 983 mb as it approaches, will be moving eastward near the Quebec/Ontario border and drag a strong cold front across our region. Categorical PoPs associated with widespread gusty rain showers will sweep from west to east during the day, followed by a chilly. Compared to Wednesday, model agreement is fairly good so confidence in this forecast is high. Compared to the data from yesterday, we are seeing a lower thunder threat and more of a post- frontal wind threat. While winds aloft won't be particularly strong, steep lapse rates with well aligned westerly winds from the surface towards 700 mb will result in frequent wind gusts 30-40 mph or higher in most areas. In addition to the winds, both Adirondacks and Greens have good upslope snow potential as the air mass behind the front is quite chilly for this time of year, below -4 degrees celsius at 850 mb.
Friday things remain active as the departing powerful low pressure system over Nova Scotia provides a moist, cyclonic flow over our area, promoting scattered rain and snow showers and breezy conditions. Temperatures should be below normal as a polar air mass is reinforced. Similar conditions are expected on Saturday. With more partial clearing between showers possible, maximum temperatures may be slightly higher than on Friday. Under mostly cloudy skies and with wind persisting at night, both Friday and Saturday should see a relatively small diurnal range, with only a 10-15 degree spread between highs and lows.
For Sunday, a lot of question marks exist. Currently the ECMWF is the only guidance to suggest a major coastal storm, but it is something to keep an eye on, as each of the last two runs have had a similar scenario. In the seven day range, there are limited data and trends to evaluate, but model guidance does suggest to go with higher than normal PoPs - generally in the 60-70% range. For now, keeping PoPs in the chance category. If a coastal low develops, a cold rain with high elevation snow resulting in QPF of up to an inch would be possible. In contrast, GFS and Canadian have a northern stream shortwave trough rolling through from the Great Lakes Saturday night, sparking light rain showers primarily during the first part of Sunday.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Through 18z Monday . Weak cold frontal passage this afternoon will bring isold -SHRA along with a nwly wind shift. Obstructions to vsby are generally not anticipated. However, we do anticipate intervals of MVFR ceilings and HIR TRRN OBSCD, gradually improving back to VFR overnight. At BTV, anticipate periods of 2-3kft OVC through 01Z before ceilings lift back above 3kft. On Monday, looking at mostly clear/VFR conditions with sustained NW winds 7-10kt.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.
SYNOPSIS . Banacos NEAR TERM . Banacos SHORT TERM . Banacos LONG TERM . Kutikoff AVIATION . Banacos
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
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|Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT||3 mi||51 min||WSW 4||10.00 mi||Overcast||55°F||43°F||64%||1013.8 hPa|
|Plattsburgh International Airport , NY||18 mi||52 min||ENE 3||10.00 mi||Overcast||51°F||42°F||71%||1013.6 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KBTV
Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||NW||NW||NW||NW||NW||N||W||NW||NW||NW||NW||Calm||W||Calm||N||N||NW||Calm||Calm||NW||N||N||NW||NW|
|2 days ago||N||N||NW||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||N||NW||N||NW||NW||NW|
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (16,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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