Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winooski, VT
July 3, 2024 1:31 AM EDT (05:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:12 AM Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 2:36 AM Moonset 7:10 PM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 030233 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1033 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue tonight and much of Wednesday as high pressure gradually crosses the region. A frontal boundary will bring increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms late Wednesday and Wednesday night but, at this time, the Fourth of July is expected to be mostly dry. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1030 PM EDT Tuesday...No significant adjustments were made with the forecast right on track. Dry conditions will continue overnight with a few clouds in the morning.
Previous Discussion...Another fantastic summer day out there this afternoon with ample sunshine, light winds, and temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints remain fairly low as well, keeping humidity quite comfortable.
This pleasant weather will continue overnight, though mid/high clouds will gradually increase as a warm front approaches the region. Moisture will start to increase late, but not enough to make for a muggy night. Lows will range from around 50F to around 60F.
The warm front will lift across the region Wednesday morning, ushering in a warmer and muggier airmass. Still, an abundance of dry air will remain at low levels, so expect this front will pass through with little fanfare beyond a mid cloud deck. Winds will become breezy out of the south/southwest, especially in the Champlain Valley due to channeling and along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks due to downsloping. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible in these locations through the daylight hours, with 20 to 25 mph elsewhere. Wind gusts will subside around sunset as we lose daytime heating, though sustained winds will remain 10-15 mph into the evening, especially in those areas mentioned above. Highs will be similar to today with most locations warming into the 80s.
For Wednesday evening and overnight, the focus will be a frontal boundary/surface trough which will cross from west to east. Moisture will pool along this feature, with PWATs approaching 2 inches. The associated showers and thunderstorms will likewise move eastward, entering the St Lawrence Valley roughly between 7 and 9 pm. The boundary will wash out as it moves eastward, and that combined with loss of daytime heating will allow the showers and thunderstorms to wane through the evening and overnight hours. Still, expect precipitation to make it into the Champlain Valley around 11 pm, then spreading across VT after midnight. The lack of strong forcing and instability will limit any severe threat, though brief heavy downpours will be possible given the very high PWATs. Lows will be in the 60s to near 70F.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...By Thursday morning, most of the precipitation associated with the prefrontal trough will come to an end. Mostly dry weather can be expected for Independence Day, although a spot shower or two will be possible as the frontal boundary passes across the region. Daytime high temperatures will climb into the 80s, and feel quite humid with dewpoints in the 60s.
Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s and 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...Seasonable weather can be expected for Friday as a brief period of ridging moves overhead before an upper- level shortwave moves into the Great Lakes late Friday into early Saturday morning, bringing more chances for precipitation.
Southwesterly flow will usher in a moisture rich airmass, with PWAT values nearing 2 inches, although the greatest moisture looks to stay to our south across the mid- Atlantic into southern New England.
Model soundings support the idea of some stronger thunderstorms possible, with CAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear in excess of 40 knots, although this will depend on the timing of the cold frontal passage and if the best instability coincides with the greatest forcing. With the abundant moisture, there is a threat for any heavy rainfall within any stronger storms that develop, which will have to be monitored over the next few days. Conditions look to trend drier toward the beginning of next week. Temperatures look to be seasonably warm towards the weekend, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s, with dewpoints largely in the 60s.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00Z Thursday...Pervasive VFR continues with high clouds edging in west to east this evening. Main change was to increase wind speeds after 14Z Wednesday with ample mixing expected and channeled southerly flow for the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. Gusts 20-25kts will likely be common for BTV/PBG/MSS. Otherwise, dry conditions continue through the period until 21Z for MSS when the first showers will be moving east out of Canada. Only other concern will be a period of LLWS just outside the TAF period moving in with a lljet.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1033 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue tonight and much of Wednesday as high pressure gradually crosses the region. A frontal boundary will bring increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms late Wednesday and Wednesday night but, at this time, the Fourth of July is expected to be mostly dry. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1030 PM EDT Tuesday...No significant adjustments were made with the forecast right on track. Dry conditions will continue overnight with a few clouds in the morning.
Previous Discussion...Another fantastic summer day out there this afternoon with ample sunshine, light winds, and temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints remain fairly low as well, keeping humidity quite comfortable.
This pleasant weather will continue overnight, though mid/high clouds will gradually increase as a warm front approaches the region. Moisture will start to increase late, but not enough to make for a muggy night. Lows will range from around 50F to around 60F.
The warm front will lift across the region Wednesday morning, ushering in a warmer and muggier airmass. Still, an abundance of dry air will remain at low levels, so expect this front will pass through with little fanfare beyond a mid cloud deck. Winds will become breezy out of the south/southwest, especially in the Champlain Valley due to channeling and along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks due to downsloping. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible in these locations through the daylight hours, with 20 to 25 mph elsewhere. Wind gusts will subside around sunset as we lose daytime heating, though sustained winds will remain 10-15 mph into the evening, especially in those areas mentioned above. Highs will be similar to today with most locations warming into the 80s.
For Wednesday evening and overnight, the focus will be a frontal boundary/surface trough which will cross from west to east. Moisture will pool along this feature, with PWATs approaching 2 inches. The associated showers and thunderstorms will likewise move eastward, entering the St Lawrence Valley roughly between 7 and 9 pm. The boundary will wash out as it moves eastward, and that combined with loss of daytime heating will allow the showers and thunderstorms to wane through the evening and overnight hours. Still, expect precipitation to make it into the Champlain Valley around 11 pm, then spreading across VT after midnight. The lack of strong forcing and instability will limit any severe threat, though brief heavy downpours will be possible given the very high PWATs. Lows will be in the 60s to near 70F.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...By Thursday morning, most of the precipitation associated with the prefrontal trough will come to an end. Mostly dry weather can be expected for Independence Day, although a spot shower or two will be possible as the frontal boundary passes across the region. Daytime high temperatures will climb into the 80s, and feel quite humid with dewpoints in the 60s.
Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s and 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...Seasonable weather can be expected for Friday as a brief period of ridging moves overhead before an upper- level shortwave moves into the Great Lakes late Friday into early Saturday morning, bringing more chances for precipitation.
Southwesterly flow will usher in a moisture rich airmass, with PWAT values nearing 2 inches, although the greatest moisture looks to stay to our south across the mid- Atlantic into southern New England.
Model soundings support the idea of some stronger thunderstorms possible, with CAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear in excess of 40 knots, although this will depend on the timing of the cold frontal passage and if the best instability coincides with the greatest forcing. With the abundant moisture, there is a threat for any heavy rainfall within any stronger storms that develop, which will have to be monitored over the next few days. Conditions look to trend drier toward the beginning of next week. Temperatures look to be seasonably warm towards the weekend, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s, with dewpoints largely in the 60s.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00Z Thursday...Pervasive VFR continues with high clouds edging in west to east this evening. Main change was to increase wind speeds after 14Z Wednesday with ample mixing expected and channeled southerly flow for the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. Gusts 20-25kts will likely be common for BTV/PBG/MSS. Otherwise, dry conditions continue through the period until 21Z for MSS when the first showers will be moving east out of Canada. Only other concern will be a period of LLWS just outside the TAF period moving in with a lljet.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBTV
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBTV
Wind History graph: BTV
(wind in knots)
Burlington, VT,
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