Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ellsworth, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A large area of low pressure near Hudson Bay will pull a weak frontal occlusion across the area today. Spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with this front will continue to move across the northwest early this morning. Meanwhile, low stratus clouds and fog drifting north from the coast will cover much of the area, especially from central parts of the region south, early this morning. A few of the stray showers will push into the east, southeast around mid morning but then dissipate before reaching Downeast. Spotty convection associated with the frontal boundary will likely redevelop around midday, again over mainly northwestern areas, and then progress east from there. However, the low level marine inversion near the surface will act to suppress surface base CAPE to the east, especially southeast over the Downeast region. Any convection that makes it to the east will be primarily elevated, or will rely on heating to overcome the shallow layer of cooler marine air near the surface.

Some stray showers may linger over eastern and southeastern areas early tonight. Otherwise, a corridor of dry air following the frontal boundary will bring clearing across western and northern areas tonight while Downeast remains partly to mostly cloudy.

Weak high pressure will build over the region on Tuesday bringing a partly to mostly sunny and warm day with inland highs in the mid to upper 80s and very light wind.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will remain in control of the weather over Northern and Eastern Maine for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
With clear skies and light southwest winds, lows will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday night. Patchy fog will be possible Tuesday night, mainly south of Katahdin.

A very warm day is on tap for Wednesday, with 850mb temperatures around 18C. This will allow high temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, with the warmest readings from Millinocket southward. Dew points in the Penobscot and Piscataquis Valleys are forecast to approach 70 degrees Wednesday. This could lead to these locations reaching Heat Advisory criteria Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere, heat index temperatures will likely fall short of criteria. Cooler temperatures will be found in Coastal Downeast due to southwest to south winds. Immediate coastal areas and outer islands are expected to see highs remain in the 70s. Still expecting lower to mid 80s closer to Route 1, however.

A cold front will begin to slowly approach from the northwest late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will bring the threat of scattered showers to the Crown of Maine. Soundings show enough instability for isolated thunderstorms before sunset Wednesday. That said, warm temperatures aloft will keep the threat limited. Expect a mild night Wednesday night, with lows well into the 60s for most areas. Closer to 60 degrees in the North Woods and at the Downeast coast for lows. Patchy fog will be possible once again with increasing southerly flow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The aforementioned front will move closer Thursday, before crossing the area Thursday night into Friday. This will increase the threat of showers and thunderstorms for more of the area.
The main threat area Thursday afternoon looks to be northern areas due to location of the front and onshore flow ahead of it.
The thunderstorm threat is forecast to extend towards the Bangor region and Downeast by Friday afternoon with the front moving further southeast. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to have differences regarding frontal placement, as well as with waves tracking along the front. This will determine which areas see more thunderstorms versus stratiform rain. Thus, leaned on NBM guidance for this timeframe. Regardless, cooler temperatures and lower dew points are forecast for this weekend. Cannot rule out a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon with a secondary front approaching from the north.

AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: South: IFR to LIFR conditions in low marine stratus will improve to MVFR around midday. MVFR conditions may drop back to IFR tonight in lower clouds. Light S winds today. Light and variable wind tonight.

North: IFR conditions this morning will improve to MVFR around midday then VFR late this afternoon. VFR conditons are expected tonight. Light S winds today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. IFR or lower possible late, mainly south of GNR-MLT, in BCFG. Light SW winds.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR or lower possible late PM north with VCSH and isolated TSRA. SW-S winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday Night...Mainly MVFR/IFR north with VCSH. VFR trending to IFR or lower BGR & Downeast with BCFG late. Light S winds.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR early BGR and Downeast with BCFG. Then VFR/MVFR with VCSH and isolated TS late. Mainly MVFR/IFR north with SHRA and scattered TSRA. S winds 5-15 kts.

Thursday Night & Friday...Mainly MVFR/IFR with SHRA. Scattered TS possible Friday. SW-W winds 5-10 kts Thursday night. NW winds 5-15 kts Friday.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds will be light with seas around 2 ft today and tonight.
Humid air over the colder waters will continue to result in some fog through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria Tuesday night through the end of the week.
Patchy fog could reduce visibility over the waters at times Tuesday night through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms possible over the waters late Friday.



CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.