Saturday, July20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday July 20, 2019 3:54 AM EDT (07:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:30PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 345 Am Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog early this morning, then patchy fog late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon and evening, then becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, then 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ005 345 Am Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. A cold front will approach late Saturday then slowly cross the region Sunday. The front will stall near the gulf of maine Monday. Low pressure will move across the waters on Tuesday then move to the east on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 200507
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
107 am edt Sat jul 20 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will move east of the region tonight. A cold front
will approach Saturday and slowly cross the area Sunday. The
front will stall across the gulf of maine Monday. Low pressure
will move along the front Tuesday into Wednesday.

Near term through today
100am update...

still scattered showers persisting along a line from quebec city
to the central highlands to northern washington county. Expect
these showers to persist for a few more hours before dieing off
toward daybreak, and adjusted forecast to account for this.

Prev disc: a warm front will move east of the area early
tonight with increasing humidity levels overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms will occur with the warm front early tonight then
end overnight leaving partly cloudy mostly clear skies across
the forecast area. Satellite imagery indicates an area of low
clouds and fog across the gulf of maine which will reach the
downeast coast tonight. With increasing low level moisture,
patchy fog is also possible across the rest of the region
overnight. Low temperatures tonight will range through the 60s
across the forecast area. Hot and humid conditions will occur
Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will range from the mid 80s
to around 90 north, to 90 to 95 interior downeast with mid 80s
to around 90 along the downeast coast. Have not made any changes
to the heat advisory where heat index values will range from
the upper 90s to around 100 Saturday. Warm temperatures aloft
should help limit convective potential Saturday. However, the
slowly approaching weak cold front and diurnal instability could
support at least isolated afternoon showers thunderstorms
across the region with the better chances across the north and
mountains. Though thunderstorm coverage is expected to be
limited, any storms which do form could be strong.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Sunday
A cold front is expected to approach and move into the region
Saturday night into Sunday. This system is expected to produce
scattered thunder late Saturday night into Sunday. Some
uncertainty as to intensity of thunder as it will be a function
of the timing of the cold front passage. High pressure is
expected to approach from the northwest Sunday night behind the
cold front. The high will bring clearing to the region Monday.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Low pressure is expected to approach from the southwest Monday
night, then move along the maine coast on Tuesday then into the
maritimes Tuesday night. This system is expected to produce
stratiform rain across the region on Tuesday, spreading further
north than indicated in the previous forecast. An upper level
trough will approach from the west Wednesday and cross our
region on Thursday. The trough is expected to produce showers
into early Friday, especially in the north and higher terrain.

Aviation 05z Saturday through Wednesday
Near term: variable conditions with fog overnight, most
extensive along the downeast coast where ifr lifr conditions are
expected. Fog could form at kbgr next couple hours, but
confidence is low. After any early morning fog dissipates,
generallyVFR conditions are expected Saturday. However,
variable conditions are possible with any isolated afternoon
showers thunderstorms.

Short term:
Saturday night...VFR early then scattered thunder gusty winds
south of khul.

Sunday...VFR. Scattered thunder gusty winds from south of khul.

Sunday night... MVFR.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr.

Wednesday...VFR.

Marine
Near term: winds seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels tonight through Saturday. Visibilities will be reduced
in fog tonight through Saturday.

Short term: for winds: have used the NAM to initialize the wind
grids out to Monday then use model blend for long term. Coldest
sea surface temperature extends across our waters with readings
in low 50s. For waves: the primary wave system is expected to be
southerly wind wave through the forecast period. There is also
expected to be a longer period southerly swell system (less than
1 foot 8-9 seconds) for the next 5 days. Will use the near shore
wave model to initialize grids however cold sea surface
temperature combined with warm air temperature is expected to
create high wind bias so will lower wind speed 15 percent below
model numbers. Fog is expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

Climate
Near record high temperatures possible Saturday. The record
high temperature in bangor on Saturday, 7 20 is 96f set in 1991,
and we are forecasting 94f. In millinocket, the record high on
7 20 is 93f set in 1991, and we are forecasting 92f. The
records in caribou and houlton appear to be out of reach at this
time.

Near record warm low temperatures are possible Saturday
morning

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm edt this evening
for mez011-015>017-031-032.

Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through
this evening for mez029-030.

Marine... None.

Near term... Foisy vjn
short term... Mignone
long term... Mignone
aviation... Foisy vjn mignone
marine... Foisy vjn mignone
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi60 min N 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 56°F1004.9 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi110 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 54°F 51°F2 ft1004.9 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi110 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 60°F2 ft1004.9 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME4 mi58 minSSW 48.00 miFair62°F62°F100%1005.6 hPa

Wind History from (wind in knots)oops, file error: weather/buffer/KBHB≥os=east/neairportwind
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Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM EDT     11.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:19 PM EDT     10.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     1.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.410.811.110.28.25.52.910.30.82.44.77.29.1109.88.56.44.12.21.41.73.15.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:44 AM EDT     11.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:20 PM EDT     10.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.510.911.210.38.35.62.910.30.82.44.87.39.210.19.98.66.54.12.21.41.73.15.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.