Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:58AMSunset 8:22PM Saturday July 11, 2020 12:18 PM EDT (16:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:30AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 1036 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through Sunday evening...
Rest of today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of rain late this morning. Scattered showers early this afternoon, then isolated showers late. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the evening, then becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog in the morning. A chance of showers through the day. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ005 1036 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Low pres will track W of the waters today. A cold front will approach from the W Sun night then cross the region Mon. An upper level trough will remain over the region through Tue then slowly move E Wed.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 111536 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1136 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will track west of the region today. A cold front will cross the region Sunday followed by upper level low pressure early next week slowly exiting the region to the east Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Update . The remnants of what had been Tropical Storm Fay will track west of the region this afternoon. A band of rain will lift northeast across the region through the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon. Showers are then expected this afternoon, most numerous across northern and western portions of the forecast area. Dependent on the amount of diurnal heating, isolated thunderstorms could also occur across northwest portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area this afternoon. Humid conditions will persist this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will range through the 70s across much of the forecast area, with upper 60s to lower 70s along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with afternoon temperatures, clouds and shower/thunderstorm chances.

Previous Discussion . Not expecting a whole lot of sunshine today w/low clouds hanging on. The exception to this will be across w and sw areas as some breaks in the clouds are possible this afternoon allowing for heating. NAMNEST soundings show SB/MU CAPE 700-1000 joules w/0-6km shear of 35 kts to allow for convective potential. Veering wind profile through 850mbs w/a dry wedge noted between 700-500mbs allowing for possible strong wind gusts if storms can get going. DCAPE values of 500-800 joules support this potential. The limiting factor is that lapse rates are minimal at best(6.0 c/km) which would limit updraft potential. The early runs of the HRRR were showing some stronger cells moving across portion of western Maine, but the latest run of the HRRR has backed off a bit. Decided to include a mention of tstms in the western areas, but confidence is not high enough yet to include enhanced wording.

For tonight, expect low clouds to set back up and fog to develop. The fog could become dense overnight as temps cool down. Any tstms back to the w should diminish by early evening. An upper level disturbance is forecast to lift up across the region later tonight w/a 35 kt jet at 9250-850mbs. This should be enough to get some showers going. Not expecting anything heavy w/this disturbance.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Sunday . Sunday begins again with low clouds and fog with the marine layer fully entrenched into all but perhaps the North Woods. Attention midday/afternoon Sunday turns to a rather potent upper level shortwave and vort max moving from SW to NE, grazing the NW half of the state. This should help ignite a fair number of storms mainly from the Central Highlands into the North Woods. No lack of low level moisture to work with, as dewpoints will be up around 70. However, morning low clouds will be slow to burn off from Eastern Aroostook south to the coast, and expect the storms over the Central Highlands and North Woods to weaken as they move east into the more stable marine layer. Added enhanced wording of gusty winds and small hail to the NW portion of the forecast area.

Sunday Night . Showers and storms should dissipate pretty quickly in the evening as the upper shortwave passes and we lose the daytime heating. Wind shifts to a more SW direction rather than S, so perhaps not as far inland of a marine layer push Tuesday night as previous nights. However, areas that got rain Tuesday (mainly N/NW) could see some fog even without a true marine layer.

Monday . Dewpoints a bit lower on Monday than Sunday with SW flow. Still though, rather muggy with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Perhaps another upper level shortwave trough and vort max will move through from SW to NE, though this one not as strong as Sunday's and with less low-level moisture, think that the risk of stronger storms is less on Monday than Sunday. Still do expect a chance of showers with a few storms mainly central/north.

Monday Night . Forecast confidence begins to decrease Monday night as models are having some issues. Notably, the Canadian and ECMWF have been inconsistent run to run, with previous runs closing off an upper low just to our west Monday night into Tuesday with quite a soaker. But the latest runs, along with most other models/ensembles are more progressive with this feature with a chance of showers, best chance Downeast, as the shortwave moves through Monday night into Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As mentioned above, forecast confidence not terribly high on Tuesday. At least a chance of showers, plus cooler temperatures with highs upper 60s to mid 70s thanks to a backdoor cold front sliding in from the northeast.

High pressure likely for Wednesday with near average temperatures and somewhat lower humidity. However, muggy and warm conditions return Thursday through Sunday as the high pressure moves to the east and we get back into low level onshore flow. Upper level shortwaves in westerly flow will make the weather pattern Thursday through Saturday conducive to afternoon thunderstorms.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. NEAR TERM: Generally expect MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, conditions across the region this afternoon with low clouds and fog. Rain will taper to showers early this afternoon, with showers then persisting into the evening. An isolated thunderstorm is possible across northwest areas this afternoon into the evening. Expect southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph today.

For tonight, IFR conditions w/LIFR w/low cigs and fog. S winds 10 mph.

SHORT TERM: Sunday . Widespread IFR to start the day with low clouds and fog. Gradual improvement to VFR most areas, but a good shot at afternoon storms mainly north of KBGR. Breezy from the south on Sunday.

Sunday Night . Variable conditions Sunday night with patchy/areas of fog developing. Don't expect as widespread IFR as previous night, but still will be some IFR, though some areas will stay VFR. Best shot at IFR is Downeast. SW breeze.

Monday . Generally VFR once the early morning low clouds/fog burns off. A few storms north of KBGR in the afternoon, but VFR outside of storms. SW/W breeze.

Monday Night and Tuesday . Fairly light wind. Low confidence on aviation category, but tendency is for VFR north and MVFR or possibly IFR Downeast.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday . Mainly VFR with light north breeze.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Seas, mostly a south swell, will reach small craft advisory levels later this afternoon then persist tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from later this afternoon through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in fog this afternoon through tonight. Rain this morning will taper to showers this afternoon. Showers will then remain possible into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small craft seas likely, and possibly small craft southerly winds to 25 kt as well, for Sunday. Winds ease Sunday night and Monday, but seas will only slowly decline, not falling to below small craft everywhere until probably late Monday night. Tentatively expect conditions below small craft Tuesday and Wednesday, but forecast confidence is fairly low at this time.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term . Norcross/Hewitt Short Term . Foisy Long Term . Foisy Aviation . Norcross/Hewitt/Foisy Marine . Norcross/Foisy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi48 min SSE 8.9 G 14 64°F 57°F1010.8 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi74 min SSE 9.7 G 12 56°F 51°F3 ft1011.5 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 40 mi18 min SE 21 G 23 1010.3 hPa (-1.3)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi134 min SSE 14 G 16 60°F 52°F3 ft1008.4 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME4 mi22 minS 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast72°F70°F94%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHB

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E5SE4S6SE5S7SE3CalmE4CalmCalmE7E6E5E7E6E65E6E5S11S12S14
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1 day agoE6SE4SE5SE7SE5S8S6S3CalmS4SW6SW3SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3E3E5E6
2 days agoSW10SW10S9S7SW5SW5S7S15NW5S4SW6SW5CalmCalmS3SW3S3CalmCalmNE4CalmSE4E5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     10.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:18 AM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:35 PM EDT     9.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:40 PM EDT     1.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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46.28.49.910.49.88.363.61.811.22.44.56.88.79.89.997.253.121.8

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:59 AM EDT     10.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:18 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT     10.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:40 PM EDT     1.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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46.38.51010.59.98.46.13.71.811.22.44.56.88.89.89.99.17.35.13.121.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.