Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 3:55PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 1:11 PM EST (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:07PMMoonset 6:02AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 956 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers early this afternoon. Rain likely late.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the morning. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of flurries after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the evening, then becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
ANZ005 956 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. A cold front crosses the waters this evening. A secondary cold front crosses the waters Wednesday night. High pressure builds in late Thursday. Low pressure moves into the waters on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 101503 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1003 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crosses the area late today. A secondary cold front crosses the area Wednesday night. High pressure builds in late Thursday. Low pressure approaches the area from the south on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 10am Update . Winds over the waters have slipped below Gale, and have converted these to a Small Craft Advisory. Waves will continue to be elevated given the persistent SW flow into the evening.

Otherwise, adjusted PoPs for this AM. Shower activity has been limited, but some radar returns are increasing across the north after a few breaks in the clouds. More persistent precip still on track for this afternoon, mainly across the Downeast region.

Previous Discission . As of 4am, winds on the Downeast coast have died down some as the low level jet has moved east of the area, and have cancelled the high wind warning and wind advisory. Gusts topped out around 60 mph on the Washington County coast, with even a report of 70 mph just across the border on Campobello Island.

As of 4am, the heavier rain has also tapered off and moved off to the east. Still, however, low clouds and mild air persist with the cold front still well off to the west, even still west of Montreal. Caribou tied a record high of 47 in the pre-dawn hours in this warm pre-frontal airmass.

For today, expect the mild temperatures and low clouds to persist ahead of the approaching cold front. It will be fairly breezy, but with low clouds persisting, not expecting full gust potential to be reached due to limited mixing. Some rain is possible ahead of the cold front, but nothing more than a few more hundredths of an inch. Whether any rain can develop ahead of the cold front is actually very important because of the threat of a flash freeze tonight. As the cold front passes late today with plummeting temps in the evening, any water on roads will likely freeze. The threat is the greatest in the north where temps fall below freezing by mid-evening. Downeast, it drops below freezing a little after midnight and think roads should be dried out by then.

A potential issue tonight for Downeast, however, is a system that could graze the coast with a little snow later tonight into early Wednesday. This is from a shortwave riding up NE just behind the cold front. Most models keep the precipitation mostly just offshore, but a shift north 30 miles and Downeast coast could pick up an inch or two of snow. Reasonable worst case/90th percentile of snow totals has dropped from 6 inches to 2 inches for the Downeast coast with the latest model cycle, so feel confident that even at its worst it won't be a very significant system. For now, going with chance PoPs along the Downeast coast with less than an inch of snow. Also, could be a few snow showers in Northern Maine with perhaps a few Saint Lawrence streamers or a weak Laurentian plume snow band setting up, so went with 20 PoPs up north to account for this possibility.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. An area of moisture and lift will be streaming northeastward just ahead of the upper trough over the Great Lakes Wednesday morning, leading to an area of light snow with a back edge roughly parallel to the coast. Mesoscale models, including the WRF-ARW, NAM, NAM nest, and HRDPS all keep the snow offshore except perhaps the outermost islands, while global models bring snow inland as far as Bangor. Mesoscale models show the best 850mb frontogenesis moving through the coast and offshore before the main plume of moisture aloft builds in. At 250mb, the jet streak’s right entrance region appears to be focused mainly offshore. The 90th percentile of guidance has decreased to around 2 inches along the coast from 6 inches yesterday at this time. Given all these factors, snow amounts were lowered by roughly 50 percent along the coast with accumulations of a coating to an inch shown now. It remains possible that the coast could see little to no accumulation at all.

By Wednesday night, any light snow will begin to move off into the Canadian Maritimes. A strong shortwave trough will move from Eastern Ontario and into Quebec. Its surface reflection is forecast to pass north of Maine near the St. Lawrence River and Gaspe Peninsula by about 6z Thu. A trailing Arctic cold front will move through the area from west to east overnight. Snow squall parameters are lighting up, particularly across the west, with values of over 4. Mesoscale models also indicate some skinny SBCAPE of up to 100j/kg below 15kft AGL and are showing convective snow showers with some quasi-linear segments. Fortunately timing of the snow showers before the morning commute Thursday likely precludes the need for any SQWs. Skies clear during the day Thursday with face-numbing wind chills of 5 to 15 below possible across the north.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Temperatures look more likely to hold steady or even increase slightly compared to what was previously anticipated Thursday night due to mid level cloud cover from a warm front lifting across Ontario, Quebec, and portions of Maine. High pressure center positioning has also trended southward over the Gulf of Maine, so radiational cooling will not be quite as efficient. Forecast lows on the NBM of around 0 across the north and low teens across the south seem more reasonable with this setup. Highs rebound nicely on Friday for what will probably be the best day of the week.

Another warm area of low pressure will move over the area this weekend. Low track is currently projected to be southeast of the previous system that is bringing widespread rain today; However, temperatures aloft will be marginal for snow even at the onset across the north Saturday morning. The previous forecast mentioned freezing rain across the north during this period, which was kept with this forecast update given the presence of high pressure to the northeast just off the coast of Newfoundland that could enhance some cold air damming. All precipitation should change over to rain by Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. A cold front will then move through Sunday afternoon and evening, changing any lingering precipitation over to snow showers. High pressure builds in Monday through Monday night with drier weather and more seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures expected.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. NEAR TERM: MVFR and IFR conditions today with low ceilings. Localized VFR early this morning, but think that's the exception rather than the rule today. Still breezy with some low level wind shear, but not as windy as it was earlier in the night at KBGR and KBHB. Cold front moves through late today with a wind shift and conditions improving rapidly to VFR in the 20z-0z timeframe. Possible exception is KFVE where MVFR cigs could persist. Mainly VFR tonight and breezy from the west.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday to Wednesday night . Mainly VFR with localized and brief IFR in snow showers mainly across the north Wednesday night. Light to modestly breezy west winds are expected.

Thursday to Thursday night . VFR conditions are expected with gusty west-northwest winds during the day. Winds will rapidly diminish overnight with mid level clouds building in.

Friday to Friday night . VFR to MVFR CIGs are expected with increasing and lowering clouds Friday. At least IFR CIGs are possible Friday night as a storm system brings lower CIGs and precipitation into the area. FZRA is possible across the north late Friday night. Breezy southwest winds are also expected.

Saturday to Saturday night . IFR conditions are expected in rain and low CIGs. FZRA is briefly possible across the north Saturday morning.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Replaced storm warning with gale warning through midday as storm force winds are done. Still some pretty impressive seas to around 15 feet early today. Winds and seas slowly decrease through the day and into tonight, though small craft conditions still expected all this afternoon and tonight after the gale expires at noon.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas continue to decrease Wednesday morning with small craft advisory criteria still being met through at least Thursday morning. Winds may briefly attain gale behind an Arctic cold front Wednesday night into early Thursday morning before decreasing late Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds overhead. The next storm system will approach this weekend, with potential for at least gale conditions by Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term . Cornwell/Foisy Short Term . Strauser Long Term . Strauser Aviation . Cornwell/Foisy/Strauser Marine . Cornwell/Foisy/Strauser


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi66 min WNW 11 G 21 55°F 44°F1003.7 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi128 min SSW 19 G 23 51°F 48°F12 ft1004.9 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 40 mi72 min S 24 G 27 1004.3 hPa (-1.2)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi128 min SW 14 G 18 49°F 6 ft1003.8 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME4 mi16 minSSW 137.00 miOvercast51°F48°F92%1003.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHB

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW8NW9NW3CalmW3NW3NW4NW3CalmCalmW4W3W3W4W3W4SW3W33W7CalmCalmS7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:01 AM EST     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:02 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:15 AM EST     11.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:37 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:53 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:47 PM EST     9.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.63.31.71.11.63.25.78.210.11110.79.36.84.11.70.40.21.33.35.98.29.69.99.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:01 AM EST     1.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:01 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:16 AM EST     11.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:37 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:53 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:48 PM EST     10.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.73.41.71.11.63.35.78.310.211.110.89.46.94.11.70.40.21.33.45.98.29.7109.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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