Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 7:33PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 2:57 AM EDT (06:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:32PMMoonset 11:29AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 240 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and early afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers early this afternoon. Scattered showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and scattered tstms. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon, then becoming ne. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ005 240 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. A warm front will approach today and cross the waters early tonight. A cold front will approach Thu and move through Thu evening. High pres will build in Fri into Sat.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 210406
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1206 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will cross the region tonight. A warm front will
cross the region Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region
Thursday. Another cold front will cross the region Friday. High
pressure will build across the region later Saturday through
Sunday.

Near term through today
Midnight update: the sky remains clear and the forecast remains
on track. Made some very minor adjustments to temps. Otherwise,
no significant changes this hour.

Previous discussion:
high pressure will cross the region tonight through early
Wednesday with mostly clear skies. Low pressure will begin to
intensify across quebec province Wednesday, drawing a warm
front toward the region late. Shower thunderstorm chances will
increase, from west to east, Wednesday afternoon. Based on
forecast soundings, helicity and shear values indicate the
potential for rotating storms later in the afternoon and
evening. A low level jet also begins to strengthen in advance
of the warm front. Have included enhanced wording for gusty
winds and hail across western portions of the forecast area from
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening where severe
thunderstorms are possible. Low temperatures tonight will range
from around 50 to the mid 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s
downeast. High temperatures Wednesday will range from around 80
to the lower 80s across much of the region, with mid to upper
70s along the downeast coast with onshore winds.

Short term tonight through Friday
Shortwave or area of remnant convection will track across new
england Wednesday evening and overnight. This will bring chance
of thunderstorms with small hail or gusty winds early, and
heavy rain throughout.

Anticipate a swath of rain and showers to accompany this as exit
region of upper level jet approaching from the west adds
support to plenty of moisture in lower levels. Thunderstorms
will potentially be embedded, and in the highly sheared
environment, would pose a gusty wind threat. At the evening
timing, these storms will mostly rely on mixed layer instability
with close to nil surface based cape. Some of the convective
composites or parameters (such as stp or scp) may be giving
erroneously high numbers due to large amounts of helicity or
shear vs. Comparatively low instability within the complex.

How guidance handles the system as it tracks east on Wednesday
will vary the region of best forcing and thus wind hail threat.

This expands to heavy rain threat as well, but more confidence
here with lifting warm front. Know much of the fa will be in
warm sector with moisture values like pwat surging into 1.5-2”
range during evening and overnight hours. Precipitation
potential placement highlights downeast as greatest chance for
heavy rain as well as converging and nearly balanced corfidi sfc
wind vectors. These vectors become more uniform in direction as
cold front begins to slide through the north early Thursday
morning. Downeast would be under threat of more thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon if cold front is slow enough, allowing
surface instability to gain strength once again during day.

Potent 40-50kts of 0-6km shear will also be in place for chance
of a isolated stronger storm over interior washington hancock co
if some clearing occurs. Front will track to clear downeast
Thursday night with dry conditions expected for much of the area
Friday. Some remaining moisture could bring a isolated shower
or two in the crown of maine during afternoon. High temperatures
will be cooler on the way into the weekend.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Upr lvl trof wl be exiting into the canadian maritimes at the start
of the long term with just an isold shower possible Fri evng. Med
range guidance differs on upr air pattern beginning 00z Sun with 12z
gfs indicating the base of a h5 trof ovr long island vs cmc ec h5
low in vicinity of new england. Latest GFS appears to be more
realistic for the extndd portion of the fcst with ridging at the sfc
and aloft vs the latest ec. GEFS ensemble indicates high pressure
both at the sfc and aloft with ec also hinting at high pressure at
the sfc along with wk low aloft. Hv sided twd GFS for the long term
with temps blo normal throughout the weekend. Temps begin to
moderate on Mon as return flow commences with high nosing ewrd into
canada ahd of next system mvg in fm the great lks by the middle of
next week.

Aviation 04z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term:VFR conditions are expected tonight through early
Wednesday. Variable conditions are possible later Wednesday with
a chance of showers thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms
could produce gusty winds and hail later Wednesday afternoon
and evening, particularly across western areas.

Short term:
Wednesday night-Thursday morning... MVFR to ifr still likely
with periods of heavy rain and a chance of thunderstorms. Fog
could hinder operations as well lowering visibilities.

Thursday... Ifr in morning with fog, improving toVFR across the
north. MVFR is possible downeast with remaining clouds and
chance of thunder in afternoon. S winds 10 kts veering to sw.

Thursday night through Sunday...VFR with some MVFR possible
Friday and Sat afternoon. Winds wnw 10-15 kts with some higher
gusts.

Marine
Near term: winds seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels tonight through Wednesday. Shower thunderstorm chances
will increase later Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Short term: below SCA conditions expected. A few gusts of wind
may approach 25 kts Wednesday night thurs morning with patchy
fog, but expected to remain around 20 kts through thurs night
again with patchy fog moving in. Waves of 2-4 ft through
Thursday night will increase Fri afternoon, but remain below
5ft. Waves decrease 2-3 ft Sat and sun.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... CB norcross mcb
short term... Cornwell
long term... Farrar
aviation... CB norcross cornwell
marine... CB norcross cornwell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi63 min E 1 G 1.9 63°F 60°F1016.4 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi113 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 57°F 55°F2 ft1017.2 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi113 min S 5.8 G 5.8 63°F 63°F1 ft1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KBHB

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm3NW4N64NW4NW4N7N56NW5S7W4SW4SW3S3CalmSW5SW6CalmSW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE3E4E4E5E6E3E3S6S11S9S13
G16
S11S7SW5SW5SW3SW7SW3S4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmSE4N3CalmCalmCalm3CalmE5E4SE6CalmS4S5SE3S4CalmCalmE3SW3CalmE3E3E5

Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:10 AM EDT     10.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:18 AM EDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:31 PM EDT     10.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.37.69.410.19.88.56.442.11.11.32.64.66.9910.110.29.27.45.12.91.51.32.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:11 AM EDT     10.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:18 AM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:32 PM EDT     10.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     1.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.37.69.410.29.98.66.54.12.11.11.42.64.67910.210.39.37.55.22.91.51.32.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.