Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ellsworth, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
6:40 AM Update...Based on buoy observations and trends, opted to drop the Gale Warning on the outer waters. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all waters through late this afternoon. Please see the Marine section for more details.

Otherwise, last line of rain showers moving out of the area at this time with a passing cold front. Strong winds behind the front, but not strong enough to warrant any wind headlines at this time. Will continue to monitor and update as needed.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front associated with a low pressure system well north of Maine is crossing the region early this morning. There will be some leftover rain showers with this front early this morning across the North. The front will clear the entire region no later than mid-morning. Behind the front, the pressure gradient will increase as high pressure builds in from the west. The result will be west to northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph. Some locally higher gusts are possible in the higher terrain today.
Strong cold air advection will prevent temperatures from rising much from the Central Highlands northward. Downsloping flow will allow the Bangor region and Downeast to see high temperatures approach 60 degrees.

Given the dry air mass behind the front, opted to blend in the NBM 10th percentile for dew point temperatures this afternoon.
This results in forecast minimum relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent across the area this afternoon. Please see the Fire Weather section for more details.

Winds will gradually diminish tonight as high pressure begins to build in and daytime heating is lost. Although skies will be mostly clear, not expecting winds to drop off enough for ideal radiational cooling. That said, felt confident enough to go a bit below NBM guidance for low temperatures tonight. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s in the colder northern valleys, with lower to mid 30s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure remains over Maine Thursday into Friday, before moving east into the Atlantic. Dry air leads to clear skies, and temperatures rising into the high 50s throughout northern Maine.
Light winds from the west. Low pressure in the low-levels over the Great Lakes moves northeast into Quebec, advecting in some moisture and clouds. Precipitation chances creep in from west to east Thursday night. Low temperatures in the low-40s.

Low pressure gets closer to the Maine border on Friday. Winds may gust a bit due to pressure gradient associated with the low.
Rain showers forecast for all of northern Maine through the weekend. Highs on Friday forecast to be in the low 50s. With winds diminishing and high relative humidity, possibility for patchy fog along the coast. Overnight lows in the high-40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure continues to move northeast into Canada this weekend, bring rain showers through Sunday morning. High pressure moves into the mid-west, leading to some dry conditions on Monday. Next chance of precipitation moves in in the middle of the week next week, with some model disagreement. The GFS shows a low system in the Atlantic lingers over waters beginning on Tuesday through the middle of the week. The EURO, however, shows a low system approaching New England. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates Highs in the 50s/60s in the long term period, and lows generally in the 30s/40s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR possible at times at FVE this morning.
Otherwise, VFR through today and tonight at All Terminals. S winds 5-15 kts through 08-10z, then becoming NW. Winds NW 10-20 kts today, gusting 25-40 kts at times. NW winds diminish tonight.

SHORT TERM: Thursday...VFR conditions. Winds from the NW shifting to the S by evening, at 5-10kts.

Thursday night.. MVFR/IFR conditions due to rain showers. Winds from the S at 5-10kts.

Friday and Friday night.. MVFR/IFR conditions due to rain.
Winds from the S/SE at 5-10 kts, gusting 20-25 kts. Potential for patchy fog Friday night at southern terminals.

Saturday.. MVFR conditions due to light rain showers. S wind becoming W in the afternoon at 5-10 kts.

Saturday night through Sunday.. MVFR conditions as rain lingers in the area. S wind 5 to 10kts becoming W/NW. Gusts up to 20 kt possible Sunday.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: The Gale Warning for the outer waters has been dropped as there are no longer widespread wind gusts to 34 kts.
Based on forecast winds and seas, opted to put a Small Craft Advisory for all waters through late this afternoon. NW wind gusts to 30 kts are expected into this afternoon. Wave heights could reach 9 feet on the outer waters. Winds and seas will subside below SCA criteria by this evening on all waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas stay below Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday through Friday morning. Friday winds and seas begin to creep up towards Small Craft Advisory until Saturday. Rain showers Thursday night through Sunday. Winds from the NW shifting to the S by Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry and windy weather is expected today in the wake of a cold front. Winds are expected to gust 30-40 mph over much of the area today, with locally higher gusts over the higher terrain.
Relative humidity values will bottom out in the 20 to 30 percent range over much of the region. Some rain fell overnight with a passing cold front, though not everywhere. High temperatures today will be in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees from the North Woods into the Saint John Valley. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s from the Central Highlands into eastern Aroostook County. Expect upper 50s to lower 60s for highs near Bangor and Downeast. We will continue to monitor temperature, wind, and relative humidity trends as the day progresses.



CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050>052.